Park factor
104 total idx
Fenway Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox
ARI
ARI
66-60
PregameWed, 4:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
BOS
BOS
67-58
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketFenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Brandon Pfaadt
RP · #32
7-1
W-L
3.11
ERA
1.13
WHIP
61
K
92.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@ATLW(7-1)7.0 IP0 ER7 K
vsLAD-7.0 IP0 ER2 K
vsSDW(6-1)6.2 IP0 ER3 K
Home starter
Payton Tolle
SP · #70
8-6
W-L
2.97
ERA
1.06
WHIP
128
K
115.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@TORW(8-6)8.0 IP0 ER4 K
vsATHW(7-6)6.0 IP1 ER14 K
@LAD-6.0 IP2 ER7 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob40% / 60%
LeanHome · 10pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesBOS leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
BOS vs ARI.
BOS is 3-7 recently; ARI is 5-5.
60.4%
model · BOS win prob
Recent form
- BOS3–7+0.2
- ARI5–5+0.5
Situational
- BOS2d rest
- ARI2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. BOS has 0 straight road games; ARI has 4.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.3pp
Players to watch
- Payton TolleBOS6.6strikeouts · ±3.2
Payton Tolle · 6.6 K · last-10 6.8 vs season 6.4.
- Sonny GrayBOS5.8strikeouts · ±2.7
Sonny Gray · 5.8 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 5.1.
- Ranger SuarezBOS5.3strikeouts · ±2.4
Ranger Suarez · 5.3 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 5.2.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
BOS is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-17ARI @ BOS1–11
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
60.1%
ensemble · BOS favored
Elo Static
61.9%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.6%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.64 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
BOS vs ARI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
131
projections · 114 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Payton TolleBOS6.6± 3.2high
- Sonny GrayBOS5.8± 2.7high
- Ranger SuarezBOS5.3± 2.4high
Hits
- Gabriel MorenoARI1.5± 0.8high
- James McCannARI1.4± 1.3high
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.2± 0.8high
Total bases
- Corbin CarrollARI2.4± 2.2high
- Gabriel MorenoARI2.4± 1.3high
- James McCannARI2.1± 2.0high
RBIs
- James McCannARI0.9± 1.1high
- Ildemaro VargasARI0.8± 1.4high
- Nolan ArenadoARI0.8± 1.7high
Earned runs
- Merrill KellyARI2.9± 2.1high
- Patrick SandovalBOS2.6± 3.1low
- Zack LittellARI2.4± 2.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
ARI
league avg
BOS
.712
OPS
.719
▶.724
.315
OBP
.318
▶.321
4.51
Runs / G
4.50
4.48
4.13
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.50
1.28
WHIP
1.30
▶1.22
6.9
K / 9
8.5
▶8.6
The One modelEdge
Wed, Aug 19ARI
Diamondbacks
70-76
vs60.4%BOS
BOS★
Red Sox
77-72
ARI 39.6%win prob60.4% BOS
BOS 1564 · ARI 1504Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
