Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at LAD?

The model favors LAD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 6, 2026

FINAL+1LAD

COL

37-55

LAD

60-32

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

48,245 attended

Line movement

29 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

LAD no-vig %

68.4%

open 68.4%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

74.9%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
74.8%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
78.3%
P(LAD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
75.2%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.55 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-251

Close price

-251

Open no-vig

68.4%

Close no-vig

68.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at LAD?: The model favors LAD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

LAD vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.6± 2.7medium
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1± 2.4high
Justin WrobleskiLAD
5.6± 3.5medium

Hits

Freddie FreemanLAD
1.8± 0.9high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.2± 1.0high
Cole CarriggCOL
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Freddie FreemanLAD
2.3± 1.4high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.2± 2.5high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.0± 3.3high

RBIs

Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.6high
Mickey MoniakCOL
0.8± 1.1high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.2± 1.6high
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.3± 2.7medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.1± 2.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

LAD

.741

OPS

.720

▶

.774

.323

OBP

.318

▶

.341

4.77

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.12

5.50

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.60

1.52

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.14

7.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

COL 7 · LAD 8 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +25pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R
COL	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	3	1	0	7
LAD	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. Castro2B	.267	5	1	1	0	0	1	2
K. Karros3B	.264	3	0	1	1	0	2	1
H. GoodmanC	.251	4	0	0	0	0	2	2
T. Rumfield1B	.297	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CarriggCF	.309	5	3	3	2	0	0	0
T. FreemanRF	.274	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
J. McCarthyCF	.305	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.310	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. TovarSS	.209	3	2	1	2	1	1	0
B. SullivanC	.220	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
E. Julien2B	.225	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. FulfordDH	.184	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. MoniakLF	.277	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		37	7	9	7	1	8	7

Player

.267

.264

.251

.297

.309

.274

.305

.310

.209

.220

.225

.184

.277

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. FreelandSP	5.0	9	6	6	0	2	72
Z. AgnosRP	3.0	1	0	0	0	1	38
A. SenzatelaRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	11
B. BernardinoRP	0.1	1	1	0	0	0	8
J. HergetRP	1.0	1	1	0	1	0	8
Team	10.1	13	8	6	2	5	137

Player

5.0

3.0

1.0

0.1

1.0

Team

10.1

137

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.294	4	1	3	4	1	1	0
A. PagesCF	.263	5	1	0	0	0	0	2
F. Freeman1B	.292	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. BettsSS	.236	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. TuckerRF	.252	5	1	3	0	0	0	0
T. HernándezLF	.260	5	2	1	0	0	0	1
M. Muncy3B	.268	4	1	2	1	0	1	0
M. Rojas2B	.290	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
D. RushingC	.269	5	2	3	1	0	0	1
T. Edman2B	.347	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		40	8	13	7	1	2	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. LauerSP	6.0	6	3	3	2	3	99
B. StewartRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
A. VesiaRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	23
T. ScottRP	1.0	3	3	3	2	2	24
E. HenriquezRP	2.0	0	1	0	2	0	28
Team	11.0	9	7	6	8	7	187

Team

COL

LAD

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

LAD vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAD vs COL.

3 sub-models, blended.