Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at COL?

The model favors MIA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 30, 2026

FINAL+11MIA

MIA

46-40

143

COL

33-53

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

20,526 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 11.5

open O/U 11.5

COL no-vig %

41.7%

open 42.8% · -1.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

28.5%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
37.8%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
34.8%
P(COL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
37.8%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.06

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-149

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at COL?: The model favors MIA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

COL vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 109 high confidence

Strikeouts

Eury PerezMIA
5.9± 3.2medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
5.5± 1.9high
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.5± 2.5high

Hits

Cole CarriggCOL
1.2± 1.1high
Mickey MoniakCOL
1.0± 0.7high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.3± 2.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.1± 3.9high
Mickey MoniakCOL
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.6high
Mickey MoniakCOL
0.7± 1.1high
Joe MackMIA
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.2± 1.6high
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.1± 2.4high
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.1± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

COL

.734

OPS

.720

.741

.326

OBP

.318

.323

4.41

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.77

4.03

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.50

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.52

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 14 · COL 3 (by 11)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	1	1	3	0	0	3	2	3	1	14
COL	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Miami MarlinsColorado Rockies

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. HicksC	.280	6	1	2	0	0	0	0
K. Stowers1B	.235	6	2	3	2	0	0	2
G. ConineRF	.286	5	1	4	2	0	1	0
X. Edwards2B	.304	6	2	4	1	0	0	0
J. MarseeCF	.189	6	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. CaissieRF	.239	4	2	1	3	1	0	2
J. Sanoja3B	.275	5	3	3	3	1	0	0
J. MackC	.250	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
L. Jimenez3B	.221	4	2	3	1	0	1	0
B. NavarretoC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		47	14	21	14	3	2	5

Player

.280

.235

.286

.304

.189

.239

.275

.250

.221

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. PerezSP	5.1	2	1	1	4	8	86
L. BacharRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	7
Z. BrzykcyRP	2.0	1	1	1	2	2	39
C. GibsonRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	20
Team	9.0	5	3	3	6	12	152

Player

5.1

0.2

2.0

1.0

Team

9.0

152

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McCarthyCF	.299	5	0	0	1	0	0	1
M. MoniakLF	.260	4	1	1	1	1	1	2
H. GoodmanC	.243	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. Rumfield1B	.294	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. CarriggCF	.266	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. FreemanRF	.273	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Julien2B	.229	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
K. Karros3B	.258	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
E. TovarSS	.207	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
B. FulfordDH	.209	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. SullivanC	.211	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	3	5	3	1	6	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GordonRP	5.0	9	5	5	0	4	74
S. HalvorsenRP	1.0	4	3	3	1	0	25
J. BrebbiaRP	1.1	5	5	5	0	1	48
B. SullivanC	1.2	3	1	1	1	0	18
Team	9.0	21	14	14	2	5	165

Team

MIA

COL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

COL vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

COL vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.