MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1STL

CIN

31-32

STL

34-28

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 972 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

26,904 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

STL no-vig %

53.3%

open 54.2% · -0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.1%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
57.0%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.2%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.9%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.11

CLV pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

53.1%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+26.4pp

best edge · CIN · DraftKings

CIN

★ best

+452DraftKings

edge +26.4pp · implied 17.0%

STL

no live price

Book	CIN	STL	Best edge
DraftKings	+452★	-760	+26.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

STL vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.6± 3.8low
Dustin MaySTL
5.2± 3.4low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
5.1± 3.4low

Hits

JJ BledayCIN
1.2± 0.9high
Nelson VelazquezSTL
1.2± 1.1low
Sal StewartCIN
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

JJ BledayCIN
2.5± 2.0high
Nelson VelazquezSTL
2.0± 2.7low
Spencer SteerCIN
1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

Alec BurlesonSTL
0.8± 1.0high
Nelson VelazquezSTL
0.8± 1.8low
JJ BledayCIN
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Chris PaddackCIN
3.5± 3.4low
Nick LodoloCIN
3.2± 2.0low
Brady SingerCIN
3.1± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

CIN 5 · STL 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked STL +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	5
STL	0	3	0	0	1	0	0	2	6

Final play

“Middle of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
D. MyersCF	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	0	25.8
J. BledayLF	1-5	5	0	1	1	0	0	0	1.2
S. SteerLF	0-2	2	0	0	1	0	2	0	22.0
S. Stewart1B	0-5	5	0	0	0	0	0	2	28.1
E. SuarezDH	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	18.8
B. DunnRF	3-4	4	1	3	0	0	0	0	34.3
N. MarteRF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	1	29.0
M. McLain2B	1-3	3	2	1	2	1	1	0	39.5
P.J. HigginsC	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.1
W. BensonRF	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	2.4
N. LoweDH	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	3.2

Team	9-35	35	5	9	4	1	4	6	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

H-AB

RBI

WP±

D. MyersCF

2-4

25.8

J. BledayLF

1-5

1.2

S. SteerLF

0-2

22.0

S. Stewart1B

0-5

28.1

E. SuarezDH

0-4

18.8

B. DunnRF

3-4

34.3

N. MarteRF

1-3

29.0

M. McLain2B

1-3

39.5

P.J. HigginsC

0-3

4.1

W. BensonRF

1-1

2.4

N. LoweDH

0-1

3.2

Team

9-35

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
N. LodoloSP	5.0	9	4	4	1	3	1	50.2
T. AntoneRP	1.2	1	0	0	1	2	0	17.5
S. MollRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	1	53.9
T. SantillanRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.5
Team	8.0	12	6	6	2	7	2	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

WP±

N. LodoloSP

5.0

50.2

T. AntoneRP

1.2

17.5

S. MollRP

1.0

53.9

T. SantillanRP

0.1

0.5

Team

8.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
M. WinnSS	2-5	5	0	2	2	0	0	2	4.1
I. HerreraDH	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	12.3
J. WalkerRF	2-4	4	1	2	1	1	0	2	2.6
N. VelazquezOF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	16.5
A. Burleson1B	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	0.9
J. FerminLF	3-4	4	2	3	0	0	0	0	91.2
B. TorresLF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	10.0
P. PagesC	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	7.8
V. Scott IICF	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	18.4
L. NootbaarLF	1-1	1	1	1	2	1	1	0	38.8
J. CrooksC	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	23.6
Team	12-34	34	6	12	6	2	2	7	—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
M. LiberatoreSP	4.1	4	5	3	3	4	1	48.4
G. GraceffoRP	1.2	2	0	0	0	1	0	2.3
R. StanekRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.8
G. SorianoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.4
R. O'BrienRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	0	11.6
Team	9.0	9	5	3	4	6	1	—

Team

CIN

STL

—