MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Mack doubled to center, Ruiz scored. → win prob 80→86% MIA

TOP 6TH+2MIA

37-23

MIA

29-35

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 973 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Top 62-10 outs

Pitcher· MIA

C. Faucher

0.0 IP, 0 ER

Batter· TB

V. Mesa Jr.

0-1

LastPitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

Live · model leanTop 6thPolls every 30s

58.0%

MIA wins · current

Pre-game: 58.4% TB

TB 0 · 2 MIA

MIA +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsMIA leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingMIABottom 5th Inning · 0-2
+6pp→ 86% WP
Mack · doubled to center, Ruiz scored.
SwingMIABottom 5th Inning · 0-1
+25pp→ 76% WP
Sanoja · homered to left (362 feet).

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 5.90

S. McClanahan

6-2 · 2.45 ERA

L. Bachar

0-0 · 3.45 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIA no-vig %

42.8%

open 42.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.5%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
47.2%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.2%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.56 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

96.8%

+49.6ppvs pre-game · MIA favored

Leverage

±3.1

pp · next play

low · 10/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+123

Close price

+123

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.0pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

★ best

-102DraftKings

edge +11.0pp · implied 47.4%

MIA

no live price

Book	TB	MIA	Best edge
DraftKings	-102★	-127	+11.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

MIA vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.9low
Drew RasmussenTB
5.4± 2.7low
Shane McClanahanTB
4.9± 2.0low

Hits

Junior CamineroTB
1.3± 0.8high
Yandy DiazTB
1.3± 1.2high
Otto LopezMIA
1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

Yandy DiazTB
2.2± 2.6high
Junior CamineroTB
2.1± 1.7high
Jonathan ArandaTB
2.0± 2.2high

RBIs

Heriberto HernandezMIA
0.9± 1.4high
Ryan ViladeTB
0.8± 1.1high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.7± 0.7high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.7± 3.7low
Steven MatzTB
2.8± 2.5low
Ryan GustoMIA
2.0± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

● Live

TB★

Rays

46-23

vs58.4%TB

MIA

Marlins

36-37

TB 58.4%win prob41.6% MIA

TB 1543 · MIA 1500Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
Y. DiazDH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2.5
J. Aranda1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	2.9
J. Caminero3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.0
R. Palacios2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	2.4
B. Williamson2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	5.8
C. MullinsCF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.3
T. WallsSS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	2.0
V. Mesa Jr.RF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.3
N. FortesC	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
Team	0-15	15	0	0	0	0	0	5	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

H-AB

RBI

WP±

Y. DiazDH

0-2

2.5

J. Aranda1B

0-2

2.9

J. Caminero3B

0-2

1.0

R. Palacios2B

0-2

2.4

B. Williamson2B

0-2

5.8

C. MullinsCF

0-1

4.3

T. WallsSS

0-2

2.0

V. Mesa Jr.RF

0-1

1.3

N. FortesC

0-1

0.0

Team

0-15

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
S. McClanahanSP	5.0	5	2	2	2	6	1	21.5
Team	5.0	5	2	2	2	6	1	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

WP±

S. McClanahanSP

5.0

21.5

Team

5.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
X. Edwards2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.8
O. LopezSS	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.8
K. StowersLF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	3.6
H. HernandezLF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	3.8
L. Jimenez3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	2.6
J. Sanoja3B	2-2	2	1	2	1	1	0	0	19.1
E. RuizRF	0-0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	8.8
C. Norby1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	2.3
J. MackC	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	8.4
Team	5-19	19	2	5	2	1	2	6	—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
L. BacharRP	3.0	0	0	0	0	3	0	8.3
A. BenderRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4.7
J. KingRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	8.7

Team	5.0	0	0	0	0	5	0	—

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	R
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
MIA	0	0	0	0	2	—	2

Team

MIA

—