MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Alvarez homered to right (369 feet), Trammell scored, Vázquez scored and Peña scored. → win prob 86→96% HOU

TOP 4TH+5HOU

ATH

30-33

HOU

29-36

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 974 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Top 40-01 out

Pitcher· HOU

T. Imai

3.1 IP, 6 K, 2 ER

Batter· ATH

S. Langeliers

0-2, 1 K

LastTatsuya Imai pitches to Shea Langeliers

Live · model leanTop 4thPolls every 30s

76.0%

HOU wins · current

Pre-game: 57.9% HOU

ATH 2 · 7 HOU

HOU +5

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 4

away leadsHOU leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingHOUBottom 2nd Inning · 0-6
+11pp→ 96% WP
Alvarez · homered to right (369 feet), Trammell scored, Vázquez scored and Peña scored.
SwingHOUBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+8pp→ 80% WP
Wade Jr. · homered to left center (359 feet).
SwingHOUBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 71% WP
Walker · doubled to left, Alvarez to third.

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

Probable starters

The mound matchup

K. Morris

T. Imai

2-3 · 5.52 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

HOU spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.0 · +0.5

HOU no-vig %

51.0%

open 50.4% · +0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
58.1%
P(HOU win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
58.1%
P(HOU win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.6%
P(HOU win)
45%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

99.0%

+40.9ppvs pre-game · HOU favored

Leverage

±2.3

pp · next play

low · 3/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.55

CLV pp

Open price

-112

Close price

-114

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

51.0%

Market came to the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+29.4pp

best edge · ATH · DraftKings

ATH

★ best

+1120DraftKings

edge +29.4pp · implied 12.7%

HOU

no live price

Book	ATH	HOU	Best edge
DraftKings	+1120★	-130	+29.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

HOU vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

116

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Peter LambertHOU
5.2± 2.6low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.1± 3.3low
J.T. GinnATH
4.8± 3.6low

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.4± 1.0high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.4± 1.4high
Zack GelofATH
1.2± 0.5high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.9± 3.3high
Jeremy PenaHOU
2.3± 2.0high
Tyler SoderstromATH
2.1± 2.2high

RBIs

Isaac ParedesHOU
0.9± 1.5high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.9± 1.5high
Christian WalkerHOU
0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.6± 2.8low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
2.9± 2.5low
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

ATH

Athletics

30-40

vs57.9%HOU

HOU★

Astros

34-41

ATH 42.1%win prob57.9% HOU

HOU 1496 · ATH 1464Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
C. CortesRF	2-3	3	0	2	0	0	0	0	6.9
S. LangeliersC	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	4.3
N. Kurtz1B	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0.5
B. RookerDH	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	1	8.5
T. SoderstromLF	1-1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	1.2
H. BolteCF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2.3
Z. Gelof3B	1-1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	5.0
J. McNeil2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	8.9
D. HernaizSS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	3.4
Team	5-15	15	2	5	2	0	3	6	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

H-AB

RBI

WP±

C. CortesRF

2-3

6.9

S. LangeliersC

0-2

4.3

N. Kurtz1B

0-1

0.5

B. RookerDH

1-2

8.5

T. SoderstromLF

1-1

1.2

H. BolteCF

0-1

2.3

Z. Gelof3B

1-1

5.0

J. McNeil2B

0-2

8.9

D. HernaizSS

0-2

3.4

Team

5-15

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
K. MorrisSP	3.0	7	7	7	3	3	3	32.7
Team	3.0	7	7	7	3	3	3	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

WP±

K. MorrisSP

3.0

32.7

Team

3.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
J. PenaSS	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	12.4
Y. AlvarezDH	1-1	1	2	1	4	1	1	0	19.7
C. Walker1B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	3.2
I. Paredes3B	0-1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.6
J. Altuve2B	1-2	2	1	1	1	1	0	1	0.0
L. Wade Jr.1B	2-2	2	1	2	1	1	0	0	8.5
T. TrammellCF	1-1	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	15.5
J. MeyersCF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	2.0
C. VazquezC	1-1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	16.2
Team	7-13	13	7	7	7	3	3	3	—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
T. ImaiSP	3.1	5	2	2	3	6	0	7.6
Team	3.1	5	2	2	3	6	0	—

Team	1	2	3	4	R
ATH	0	0	2	0	2
HOU	1	5	1	—	7

Team

ATH

HOU

—