MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5SEA

NYM

26-35

SEA

33-29

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 977 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

28,329 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SEA no-vig %

57.2%

open 57.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.5%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
59.4%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.6%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.7%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.85

CLV pp

Open price

-149

Close price

-143

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.3pp

best edge · SEA · DraftKings

NYM

no live price

SEA

★ best

-149DraftKings

edge +2.3pp · implied 57.3%

Book	NYM	SEA	Best edge
DraftKings	+124	-149★	+2.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SEA vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.5± 2.9low
Logan GilbertSEA
5.9± 2.6low
Bryan WooSEA
5.8± 4.2low

Hits

J.P. CrawfordSEA
1.1± 1.1high
Josh NaylorSEA
1.1± 0.8high
Julio RodriguezSEA
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Julio RodriguezSEA
2.3± 2.6high
J.P. CrawfordSEA
2.1± 2.9high
Colt EmersonSEA
2.0± 2.2medium

RBIs

Juan SotoNYM
0.7± 1.3high
Julio RodriguezSEA
0.7± 1.1high
Carson BengeNYM
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Luis CastilloSEA
3.0± 3.3low
Nolan McLeanNYM
2.7± 2.9low
Bryan WooSEA
2.7± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

NYM 3 · SEA 8 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	3
SEA	0	2	1	1	3	1	0	0	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
C. BengeRF	2-3	3	2	2	3	2	1	1	21.5
B. Bichette3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	3.4
J. SotoLF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.5
J. Young1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	3	5.0
M. Vientos1B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	14.4
B. Baty3B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	2.0
M. Semien2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	8.3
A.J. EwingCF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	20.1
H. SengerC	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	2.1
M. MelendezDH	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.4

Team	5-30	30	3	5	3	2	2	11	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

H-AB

RBI

WP±

C. BengeRF

2-3

21.5

B. Bichette3B

0-3

3.4

J. SotoLF

1-4

0.5

J. Young1B

0-3

5.0

M. Vientos1B

0-4

14.4

B. Baty3B

1-4

2.0

M. Semien2B

0-3

8.3

A.J. EwingCF

1-3

20.1

H. SengerC

0-2

2.1

M. MelendezDH

0-1

0.4

Team

5-30

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
H. BrazobanRP	1.2	3	2	2	1	0	1	19.4
J. TongSP	3.1	5	5	4	2	4	1	31.6
C. PerezRP	2.0	2	1	1	0	3	1	6.5
A.J. MinterRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0.0
Team	8.0	11	8	7	4	8	3	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

WP±

H. BrazobanRP

1.2

19.4

J. TongSP

3.1

31.6

C. PerezRP

2.0

6.5

A.J. MinterRP

1.0

0.0

Team

8.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
J.P. CrawfordSS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	3	1	5.8
J. RodriguezCF	1-4	4	1	1	2	1	0	1	1.3
R. ArozarenaLF	1-5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	14.7
L. RaleyRF	0-5	5	0	0	0	0	0	2	8.1
C. Young2B	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	5.0
D. CanzoneDH	3-4	4	2	3	0	0	0	0	32.4
P. Wisdom3B	1-3	3	2	1	2	1	1	1	27.2
J. PeredaC	2-4	4	1	2	3	1	0	1	16.9
C. Emerson3B	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	1	2.9
Team	11-35	35	8	11	7	3	4	8	—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
L. GilbertSP	5.1	4	3	3	1	8	2	20.0
E. BazardoRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	1.1
C. CriswellRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	3	0	1.5
Team	9.0	5	3	3	2	11	2	—

Team

NYM

SEA

—