May 16, 26sim 97
174
5(H)7
EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
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FINAL+1STL
CHC
31-27
56
STL
30-25
Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
37,564 attended
Line movement
200 snapshots
STL spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
STL no-vig %
43.7%
open 44.9% · -1.2
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
STL wins
CHC 5 · STL 6 (by 1)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked STL +5pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| STL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
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Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
