HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 6
  • MLBBot 5
    PIT 3@ATL 3
    -2.5pphigh
  • MLBBot 6
    WSH 2@ARI 1
    -37.9ppmedium
  • MLBMid 8
    BAL 4@TOR 6
    +47.9pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    TB 0@MIA 2
    +49.6pplow
  • MLBTop 5
    CHW 6@PHI 1
    -53.1pplow
  • MLBBot 4
    ATH 2@HOU 7
    +40.9pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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WSH logo
WSH
2
LiveBot 6th
ARI logo
ARI
1
Updated 5:35 PM ET
Live read

Carroll walked. → win prob 46→53% ARI

BOT 6TH+1WSH↑
WSH

WSH

32-32

2
1
ARI

ARI

33-30

MLB · At bat

Bottom 6·0-2·0 outs

Pitcher· WSH

O. Ribalta

0.0 IP, 0 ER

Batter· ARI

G. Moreno

0-1, 1 K

LastPitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

Live · model leanBot 6thPolls every 30s

53.8%

WSH wins · current

Pre-game: 55.4% ARI

WSH 2 · 1 ARI

WSH +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6
away leadsARI leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ↺Lead flipARIBottom 6th Inning · 2-1
    +7pp→ 53% WP

    Carroll · walked.

  • ◆ClutchARIBottom 5th Inning · 2-1
    +14pp→ 45% WP

    Groover · singled to center, Smith scored on error, Groover safe at second on fielding error by center fielder Young, Groover safe at third on error.

  • ↺Lead flipWSHTop 1st Inning · 2-0
    +15pp→ 59% WP

    Mead · homered to left center (411 feet), Wood scored.

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.25

Z. Littell

5-4 · 5.01 ERA

vs

E. Rodriguez

5-1 · 2.24 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ARI no-vig %

59.3%

open 59.3%

-1.0-2.0ARI SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL63.3%55.3%ARI NO-VIG %MODEL 55.4%Jun 5, 8 PMJun 6, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelLean
● Live
WSH2

WSH

Nationals

35-36

vs55.4%ARI

ARI★

Diamondbacks

35-34

ARI1
WSH 44.6%win prob55.4% ARI
ARI 1498 · WSH 1480Box score→

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

18.0%

-37.9ppvs pre-game · WSH favored

Leverage

±7.4

pp · next play

medium · 49/100

1-point game · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

56%Last 7 · 57-44
60%Last 30 · 311-208
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+19.4pp

best edge · ARI · DraftKings

WSH

no live price

ARI

★ best
+161DraftKings

edge +19.4pp · implied 36.0%

BookWSHARIBest edge
DraftKings-214+161★+19.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+135

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved

MLB·Sat, Jun 6·Bot 6th/SeriesWSH leads series 1-0/VegasARI -162
Updated 0s ago
Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1C. MeadWSH+18.7pp
  2. 2J. YoungWSH−15.1pp
  3. 3L. GrooverARI+14.6pp

WSH · top performer

WSH
Curtis Mead

Curtis Mead

1B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Pavin Smith

Pavin Smith

1B

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks · live

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Bot 6th
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBKWP±
J. WoodRF
1-3311000210.6
C. Mead1B
1-3311210018.7
A. Chaparro1B
0-220000116.5
C. AbramsSS
0-3300000110.2
D. CrewsRF
0-220000001.4
D. LileLF
1-220100011.9
J. YoungCF
0-2200000015.1
N. Nunez2B
0-220000003.5
K. RuizC
1-220100000.4
Team4-2121242115—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
PlayerIPHRERBBKHRWP±
Z. LittellSP
5.02111406.8
Team5.0211240—
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBKWP±
K. Marte2B
0-330000014.5
C. CarrollRF
0-220000102.1
G. MorenoC
0-110000010.1
N. Arenado3B
0-220000011.6
P. Smith1B
1-221100008.9
R. WaldschmidtCF
0-220000016.5
G. PerdomoSS
0-220000005.9
L. Groover3B
1-2201100014.6
T. TroyLF
0-110000101.3
Team2-1717121024—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
PlayerIPHRERBBKHRWP±
E. RodriguezSP
6.04221513.9
Team6.0422151—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • Z. Littell
    64 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      30%·91.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      25%·88.7 mph·14% whiff
    • FS
      19%·84.4 mph·60% whiff
    • SI
      14%·91.8 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      13%·79.7 mph·67% whiff
  • O. Ribalta
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      43%·94.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      29%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·84.9 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      14%·85.9 mph·— whiff

ARI

  • E. Rodriguez
    85 pitches·31% CSW
    • CH
      34%·86.7 mph·36% whiff
    • FF
      27%·91.8 mph·9% whiff
    • CU
      19%·80.8 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      13%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·86.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

2

2

Runs

1

1

Errors

0

Current series

WSH leads series 1-0

Jun 6WSHWSH14@ARIARI1
Jun 6WSHWSH@ARIARItoday
Jun 7WSHWSH@ARIARIupcoming

Season series

WSH leads series 1-0

Jun 6WSHWSH14@ARIARI1
Jun 6WSHWSH@ARIARItoday
Jun 7WSHWSH@ARIARIupcoming
Jul 24ARIARI@WSHWSHupcoming
Jul 25ARIARI@WSHWSHupcoming
Jul 26ARIARI@WSHWSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ARI -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+13443%
ARIARI-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
WSHWSHSP
Z. Littell

Z. Littell

#18 · 5-4

ERA

5.01

K

35

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/31vsSDSD6.0 IP · 2 ER · 5 KW(5-4)
5/25@CLECLE7.0 IP · 1 ER · 7 KW(4-4)
5/20vsNYMNYM5.0 IP · 2 ER · 3 KW(3-4)
VS
ARIARISP
E. Rodriguez

E. Rodriguez

#57 · 5-1

ERA

2.24

K

52

SV

—

Last 3 starts

6/2vsLADLAD6.0 IP · 1 ER · 3 K-
5/27@SFSF6.0 IP · 2 ER · 6 KW(5-1)
5/22vsCOLCOL7.0 IP · 0 ER · 4 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
WSHWSH3L · 4R · 2S
  1. 1

    J. Wood

    DH · #29

    L
  2. 2

    C. Mead

    3B · #45

    R
  3. 3

    A. Chaparro

    1B · #87

    R
  4. 4

    C. Abrams

    SS · #5

    L
  5. 5

    D. Crews

    RF · #3

    R
  6. 6

    D. Lile

    LF · #4

    L
  7. 7

    J. Young

    CF · #30

    R
  8. 8

    N. Nunez

    2B · #26

    B
  9. 9

    K. Ruiz

    C · #20

    B
ARIARI2L · 5R · 2S
  1. 1

    K. Marte

    2B · #4

    B
  2. 2

    C. Carroll

    RF · #7

    L
  3. 3

    G. Moreno

    C · #14

    R
  4. 4

    N. Arenado

    3B · #28

    R
  5. 5

    P. Smith

    DH · #26

    L
  6. 6

    R. Waldschmidt

    CF · #15

    R
  7. 7

    G. Perdomo

    SS · #2

    B
  8. 8

    L. Groover

    1B · #16

    R
  9. 9

    T. Troy

    LF · #9

    R

Live · top performers so far

Bot 6th
Game flowWSH ↔ ARI

Recent swing: 14pp · Bottom 5th Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 2 : Strike 2 Foul

WSHWSH
C. Mead

C. Mead

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

Z. Littell

Z. Littell

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 6 K · 1 ER

ARIARI
P. Smith

P. Smith

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

E. Rodriguez

E. Rodriguez

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 6 K · 2 ER

How it's going

WSH lead ARI 2-1 (Bot 6th).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+15pp→ 59% WP

Mead · homered to left center (411 feet), Wood scored.

ARIBottom 5th Inning · 2-1
+14pp→ 45% WP

Groover · singled to center, Smith scored on error, Groover safe at second on fielding error by center fielder Young, Groover safe at third on error.

ARIBottom 6th Inning · 2-1
+7pp→ 53% WP

Carroll · walked.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456R
WSH2000002
ARI0000101

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

2

Runs

1

4

Hits

2

1

Errors

0

8

TB

2

1

HR

0

1

BB

2

5

K

4

5

LOB

5

Betting line

ARI -1.5·O/U 9·WSH +134/ARI -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

ARI vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · ARI won 1

2
0

Inn 1

Mead 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Groover 1

0
0

Inn 6

WSH
ARI

Play-by-play · 307 plays

period
event
player
  1. B6

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  2. B6

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  3. B6

    Orlando Ribalta pitches to Gabriel Moreno

    · ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  4. B6

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  5. B6

    Carroll walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

    +7pp

  6. B6

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  7. B6

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  8. B6

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  9. B6

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  10. B6

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  11. B6

    Orlando Ribalta pitches to Corbin Carroll

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  12. B6

    Ribalta relieved Littell

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  13. B6

    Bottom of the 6th inning

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  14. M6

    Middle of the 6th inning

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  15. T6

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  16. T6

    Abrams flied out to left.

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

    +1pp

  17. T6

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  18. T6

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  19. T6

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  20. T6

    Eduardo Rodriguez pitches to CJ Abrams

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  21. T6

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  22. T6

    Chaparro flied out to right.

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

    +2pp

  23. T6

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  24. T6

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  25. T6

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  26. T6

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  27. T6

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  28. T6

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  29. T6

    Eduardo Rodriguez pitches to Andres Chaparro

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

  30. T6

    ·

    WSH 2·ARI 1

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 11 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Recent pitches · last 8

ESPN PBP · live
  1. BallFF 93#1
  2. BallCH 84#2
  3. BallFF 94#3
  4. Strike LookingFF 95#4
  5. BallSL 85#5
  6. Strike LookingSI 96#1
  7. Foul BallSI 96#2
  8. Foul BallSL 85#3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 974 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 23, 26sim 97
    183
    16(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jun 5, 26sim 97
    215
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 95
    92
    5(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jun 4, 26sim 95
    235
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 95
    281
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 94
    184
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

ARI vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cade CavalliWSH
    6.1± 4.1low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 2.8low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.4± 3.4low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.2± 1.3high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • James WoodWSH
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
    2.2± 2.9high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
    1.2± 2.0high
  • Ketel MarteARI
    0.9± 1.1high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.7± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    3.1± 2.3low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    2.9± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.1%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    55.9%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.2%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.6%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.93 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.