MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Triolo singled to center. → win prob 32→38% PIT

TOP 5TH+1ATL

PIT

34-30

ATL

43-21

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 973 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Top 52-20 outs

Pitcher· ATL

S. Strider

4.0 IP, 3 K, 2 ER

Batter· PIT

S. Horwitz

1-2

LastPitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

Live · model leanTop 5thPolls every 30s

63.4%

ATL wins · current

Pre-game: 68.8% ATL

PIT 2 · 3 ATL

ATL +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsATL leads

Key moments · live

newest first

ClutchPITTop 5th Inning · 2-3
+6pp→ 38% WP
Triolo · singled to center.
SwingPITBottom 4th Inning · 2-3
+7pp→ 30% WP
Yastrzemski · grounded out to second.
SwingPITTop 4th Inning · 1-3
+8pp→ 26% WP
Gonzales · doubled to left, Reynolds scored.
SwingATLBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+10pp→ 75% WP
Riley · doubled to left, Dubón scored, Smith to third.
SwingATLBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 68% WP
Dub · ón singled to center, Acuña Jr. to third.

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 6.54

B. Ashcraft

5-2 · 2.77 ERA

S. Strider

3-1 · 3.77 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

ATL no-vig %

51.0%

open 51.1% · -0.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.0%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
67.1%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
65.9%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
66.2%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

85.9%

+18.8ppvs pre-game · ATL favored

Leverage

±6.0

pp · next play

medium · 36/100

1-point game · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.10

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-114

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.0%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+12.1pp

best edge · PIT · DraftKings

PIT

★ best

+393DraftKings

edge +12.1pp · implied 19.1%

ATL

no live price

Book	PIT	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	+393★	-620	+12.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

ATL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.5± 2.0low
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.9± 2.8low
Spencer StriderATL
6.7± 2.6low

Hits

Michael Harris IIATL
1.3± 1.4high
Nick GonzalesPIT
1.3± 1.1high
Matt OlsonATL
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.3± 2.0high
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL
2.3± 2.5high
Michael Harris IIATL
2.2± 2.5high

RBIs

Oneil CruzPIT
0.9± 1.3high
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL
0.8± 1.3high
Mauricio DubonATL
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.4± 3.0low
Bubba ChandlerPIT
2.8± 2.3low
Grant HolmesATL
2.3± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One model★ Lock

● Live

PIT

Pirates

34-35

vs68.8%ATL

ATL★

Braves

50-22

PIT 31.2%win prob68.8% ATL

ATL 1585 · PIT 1485Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
S. Horwitz1B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	8.7
B. Lowe2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	3.6
B. ReynoldsLF	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	5.7
R. O'HearnRF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.3
N. Gonzales3B	1-2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	3.4
O. CruzCF	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2.0
E. RodriguezC	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	7.8
T. CallihanLF	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	1.1
J. TrioloSS	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	4.1
Team	5-16	16	2	5	2	0	2	3	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

H-AB

RBI

WP±

S. Horwitz1B

1-2

8.7

B. Lowe2B

0-2

3.6

B. ReynoldsLF

1-2

5.7

R. O'HearnRF

0-2

4.3

N. Gonzales3B

1-2

3.4

O. CruzCF

0-0

2.0

E. RodriguezC

0-2

7.8

T. CallihanLF

1-2

1.1

J. TrioloSS

1-2

4.1

Team

5-16

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
B. AshcraftSP	4.0	5	3	3	0	4	0	16.9
Team	4.0	5	3	3	0	4	0	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

WP±

B. AshcraftSP

4.0

16.9

Team

4.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
R. Acuna Jr.RF	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	10.1
M. DubonSS	2-2	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	15.7
M. Olson1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	8.1
O. Albies2B	0-0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6.3
D. SmithDH	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	5.6
A. Riley3B	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	12.0
M. YastrzemskiLF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	10.2
A. WynnsC	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.7
H. KimSS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.9
Team	5-16	16	3	5	2	0	0	4	—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
S. StriderSP	4.0	5	2	2	2	3	0	0.4
Team	4.0	5	2	2	2	3	0	—

Team	1	2	3	4	5	R
PIT	0	0	0	2	0	2
ATL	2	0	1	0	—	3

Team

PIT

ATL

—