MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Alexander homered to left center (386 feet). → win prob 7→13% BAL

BOT 7TH+2TOR

BAL

31-33

TOR

30-34

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 973 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Bottom 71-22 outs

Pitcher· BAL

A. Suarez

0.2 IP, 1 K, 0 ER

Batter· TOR

E. Clement

2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI

Live · model leanBot 7thPolls every 30s

61.2%

TOR wins · current

Pre-game: 50.6% BAL

BAL 4 · 6 TOR

TOR +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 7

away leadsTOR leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingTORBottom 3rd Inning · 1-4
+29pp→ 83% WP
Clement · homered to left (367 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored and Sánchez scored.
Lead flipTORBottom 2nd Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 51% WP
Valenzuela · doubled to right, Clement to third.
Lead flipBALTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 61% WP
Cowser · homered to right center (427 feet).
SwingBALBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 50% WP
Lukes · grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Springer out at second.
SwingTORTop 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 48% WP
Alonso · struck out swinging.

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 6.06

K. Bradish

3-6 · 3.44 ERA

B. Fisher

2-1 · 2.62 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TOR no-vig %

49.6%

open 50.4% · -0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.7%

ensemble · BAL favored

Elo Static
51.1%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.1%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.8%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.55 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

98.9%

+47.8ppvs pre-game · TOR favored

Leverage

±2.4

pp · next play

low · 4/100

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+1.7pp

best edge · BAL · DraftKings

BAL

★ best

-105DraftKings

edge +1.7pp · implied 48.9%

TOR

no live price

Book	BAL	TOR	Best edge
DraftKings	-105★	-115	+1.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

TOR vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Kyle BradishBAL
5.5± 3.1low
Trey YesavageTOR
5.5± 2.0low
Shane BazBAL
5.3± 2.1low

Hits

Nathan LukesTOR
1.3± 0.8high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.2± 0.9high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 1.4high

Total bases

Adley RutschmanBAL
2.0± 3.0high
Charles McAdooTOR
2.0± 2.3low
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
1.9± 1.7high

RBIs

Charles McAdooTOR
1.0± 1.4low
Adley RutschmanBAL
0.9± 1.5high
Blaze AlexanderBAL
0.7± 1.9high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.5low
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
3.6± 3.0low
Shane BazBAL
2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

● Live

BAL★

Orioles

34-40

vs50.6%BAL

TOR

Blue Jays

29-44

BAL 50.6%win prob49.4% TOR

BAL 1484 · TOR 1467Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
T. WardLF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	3	12.7
G. HendersonSS	2-3	3	1	2	0	0	0	0	3.8
A. RutschmanC	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2.1
P. Alonso1B	1-3	3	1	1	2	1	0	1	8.6
C. Mayo3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	7.1
L. TaverasCF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.8
C. CowserRF	1-2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	10.8
B. Alexander3B	1-2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	4.5
J. Holliday2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1.7
T. O'NeillRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.3
J. Jackson2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.8
Team	5-26	26	4	5	4	3	2	11	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

H-AB

RBI

WP±

T. WardLF

0-3

12.7

G. HendersonSS

2-3

3.8

A. RutschmanC

0-3

2.1

P. Alonso1B

1-3

8.6

C. Mayo3B

0-3

7.1

L. TaverasCF

0-3

1.8

C. CowserRF

1-2

10.8

B. Alexander3B

1-2

4.5

J. Holliday2B

0-2

1.7

T. O'NeillRF

0-1

1.3

J. Jackson2B

0-1

1.8

Team

5-26

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
K. BradishSP	4.0	9	5	5	3	3	1	37.2
K. AkinRP	2.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	3.2
A. SuarezRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2.3
Team	6.2	11	6	6	3	4	1	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

WP±

K. BradishSP

4.0

37.2

K. AkinRP

2.0

3.2

A. SuarezRP

0.2

2.3

Team

6.2

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
G. SpringerDH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	4.1
N. LukesRF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	9.9
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	2.1
J. SanchezRF	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	1	30.2
E. Clement2B	2-3	3	3	2	3	1	0	0	46.5
B. ValenzuelaC	2-2	2	1	2	1	0	0	0	11.2
K. Okamoto3B	2-3	3	0	2	1	0	0	0	0.2
A. GimenezSS	2-3	3	0	2	1	0	0	1	5.3
M. StrawRF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.1
Team	11-26	26	6	11	6	1	3	4	—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
B. FisherRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	0	8.4
S. MilesRP	4.1	2	2	2	1	5	1	3.0
J. HoffmanRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	1	4.5
M. FluhartyRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	3	1	2.1
Team	7.0	5	4	4	2	11	3	—

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	R
BAL	0	1	0	0	0	2	1	4
TOR	0	1	4	0	1	0	0	6

Team

BAL

TOR