MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3TEX

TEX

30-31

STL

31-28

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 975 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

24,859 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

STL no-vig %

48.9%

open 50.0% · -1.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.3%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
54.5%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.9%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.1%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.08

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.1pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

TEX

no live price

STL

★ best

-108DraftKings

edge +4.1pp · implied 49.6%

Book	TEX	STL	Best edge
DraftKings	-112	-108★	+4.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

STL vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.5± 3.7low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.2± 2.5low
Jack LeiterTEX
5.9± 3.3low

Hits

Josh JungTEX
1.3± 0.8high
Nelson VelazquezSTL
1.2± 1.1low
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Joc PedersonTEX
2.3± 2.9high
Josh JungTEX
2.1± 1.9high
Nelson VelazquezSTL
2.0± 2.7low

RBIs

Joc PedersonTEX
0.9± 1.0high
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.8± 1.0high
Nelson VelazquezSTL
0.8± 1.8low

Earned runs

Jack LeiterTEX
2.8± 2.6low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.7± 2.3low
Andre PallanteSTL
2.5± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 7 · STL 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	0	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	3	7
STL	0	1	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
J. PedersonDH	3-4	4	1	3	2	0	0	0	34.1
J. Jung3B	1-4	4	0	1	2	0	0	2	9.1
B. NimmoRF	0-4	4	0	0	1	0	0	4	14.2
J. Burger1B	0-4	4	1	0	0	0	1	2	7.9
E. Duran2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	6.6
A. OsunaLF	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	1	3.3
E. CarterCF	1-3	3	2	1	0	0	1	2	53.5
K. HigashiokaC	3-4	4	1	3	0	0	0	0	31.2
N. Lopez2B	0-3	3	1	0	1	0	0	2	6.5

Team	9-33	33	7	9	7	0	3	15	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

H-AB

RBI

WP±

J. PedersonDH

3-4

34.1

J. Jung3B

1-4

9.1

B. NimmoRF

0-4

14.2

J. Burger1B

0-4

7.9

E. Duran2B

0-3

6.6

A. OsunaLF

1-4

3.3

E. CarterCF

1-3

53.5

K. HigashiokaC

3-4

31.2

N. Lopez2B

0-3

6.5

Team

9-33

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
N. EovaldiSP	6.0	11	4	4	1	7	1	60.3
J. BeeksRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	2	0	28.1
C. QuantrillRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
J. JunisRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	3.8
Team	9.0	13	4	4	1	10	1	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

WP±

N. EovaldiSP

6.0

60.3

J. BeeksRP

1.2

28.1

C. QuantrillRP

0.1

0.0

J. JunisRP

1.0

3.8

Team

9.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
J. Wetherholt2B	2-5	5	1	2	0	0	0	0	32.2
I. HerreraDH	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	42.9
A. Burleson1B	2-5	5	0	2	1	0	0	2	3.3
J. WalkerRF	1-5	5	0	1	1	0	0	3	23.5
B. TorresLF	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	1	2	16.7
M. WinnSS	2-5	5	0	2	0	0	0	1	12.7
N. Gorman3B	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	1	4.6
J. CrooksC	2-4	4	0	2	1	0	0	0	17.7
V. Scott IICF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	16.3
N. VelazquezOF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	8.7
J. FerminLF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	8.0

Team	13-39	39	4	13	4	1	1	10	—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
D. MaySP	5.2	5	3	3	2	9	0	11.1
J. RomeroRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	0	6.4
G. GraceffoRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	1.9
G. SorianoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	10.1
R. O'BrienRP	1.0	3	3	3	1	2	0	57.6
Team	9.0	9	7	7	3	15	0	—

Team

TEX

STL