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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3CLE
CIN

CIN

24-22

4
7
CLE

CLE

25-22

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
33,331 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

CLE no-vig %

61.6%

open 60.8% · +0.8

+0.5-2.0CLE SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL65.6%56.8%CLE NO-VIG %May 15, 6 PMMay 16, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CIN 4 · CLE 7 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0010300004
CLE020002217

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+28.9pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

CIN

no live price

CLE

★ best
+261DraftKings

edge +28.9pp · implied 26.0%

BookCINCLEBest edge
DraftKings-369+261★+28.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 13, 26sim 98
    295
    13(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 97
    238
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 97
    285
    15(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 7, 26sim 97
    1112
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 97
    165
    24(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 96
    116
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, May 16·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 2-1/VegasCLE -151

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians held off Cincinnati Reds, 7–4.

CLE -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Blake Dunn

Blake Dunn

RF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Angel Martinez

Angel Martinez

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

3

R

2

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN24-22
4
7
CLE25-22
CIN24-22·CLE25-22
CIN

CIN

24-22

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
D. MyersD. Myers★CF
1-44111102
SPRINT2744
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-33110011
SPRINT2872
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
0-22001021
SPRINT26.530
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
1-44012000
SPRINT28.483
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
0-44000001
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-44000002
B. DunnB. Dunn★RF
2-33120000
J. TrevinoJ. Trevino★C
0-11000000
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-22100010
W. BensonW. BensonRF
0-11000001
T. StephensonT. StephensonC
0-11000010
N. LoweN. LoweDH
0-11000000
Team5-3030454158
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PaddackC. Paddack★SP
5.0622130
L. MeyL. MeyRP
0.1122210
S. MollS. MollRP
1.1111120
P. JohnsonP. JohnsonRP
0.1111101
C. PhillipsC. PhillipsRP
1.0110220
Team8.01076781
CLE

CLE

25-22

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
0-33000000
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
2-44120010
SPRINT27.251
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
0-44000010
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
2-55120002
SPRINT25.411
T. BazzanaT. Bazzana★2B
1-55010003
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
1-33210021
SPRINT26.530
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
2-44322100
SPRINT27.765
A. HedgesA. Hedges★C
0-22000021
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
2-33022010
SPRINT27.354
P. HalpinP. HalpinCF
0-11000001
Team10-34347105178
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. CantilloJ. Cantillo★SP
5.0444441
C. HoldermanC. HoldermanRP
1.2100010
E. SabrowskiE. SabrowskiRP
0.1000010
H. GaddisH. GaddisRP
1.0000000
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0000120
Team9.0544581

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • C. Paddack
    78 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      47%·93.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      28%·84.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      14%·77.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·85.3 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Phillips
    27 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      59%·99.4 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      33%·86.9 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      7%·89.1 mph·— whiff
  • S. Moll
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      50%·81.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      18%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·91.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      14%·92.7 mph·50% whiff
  • L. Mey
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      52%·98.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      48%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Johnson
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • CU
      67%·86.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.8 mph·0% whiff

CLE

  • J. Cantillo
    87 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      38%·92.6 mph·9% whiff
    • CH
      33%·80.4 mph·44% whiff
    • CU
      24%·80.6 mph·31% whiff
    • SL
      3%·82.8 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      1%·88.1 mph·— whiff
  • C. Smith
    17 pitches·41% CSW
    • FF
      82%·98.2 mph·60% whiff
    • ST
      12%·85.4 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      6%·88.7 mph·— whiff
  • H. Gaddis
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      43%·90.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      29%·79.5 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      29%·96.4 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Holderman
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      62%·98.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      38%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Sabrowski
    5 pitches·60% CSW
    • FF
      60%·93.9 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      40%·81.4 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

10

4

Runs

7

1

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 2-1

May 15CINCIN7@CLECLE6
May 16CINCIN4@CLECLE7today
May 17CINCIN3@CLECLE10

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 15CINCIN7@CLECLE6
May 16CINCIN4@CLECLE7today
May 17CINCIN3@CLECLE10
Jul 27CLECLE@CINCINupcoming
Jul 28CLECLE@CINCINupcoming
Jul 29CLECLE@CINCINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.1h

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CINCIN+12544%
CLECLE-15160%

↘6· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 31pp · Bottom 7th Inning

CINCIN
B. Dunn

B. Dunn

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

C. Paddack

C. Paddack

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

CLECLE
A. Martinez

A. Martinez

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. Cantillo

J. Cantillo

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

How it ended

CLE beat CIN 7-4. Mart's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).

Win probability

CLE vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINBottom 5th Inning · 4-2
+13pp→ 55% WP

Ram · írez singled to right.

CLEBottom 6th Inning · 4-2
+17pp→ 55% WP

Mart · ínez doubled to left, Kwan to third.

CLEBottom 7th Inning · 4-6
+31pp→ 89% WP

Mart · ínez homered to right center (395 feet), Manzardo scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0010300004
CLE02000221—7

Period scoring

CIN won 2 · CLE won 4

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Rocchio 2

1
0

Inn 3

Myers 1

0
0

Inn 4

3
0

Inn 5

Steer 2

0
2

Inn 6

Rocchio 1

0
2

Inn 7

Mart 2

0
1

Inn 8

Ram 1

0

Inn 9

CIN
CLE

Play-by-play · 601 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  2. T9

    Lowe lined out to left.

    · ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

    +0.9pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  4. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Nathaniel Lowe

    · ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  5. T9

    Lowe hit for Hayes

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  6. T9

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  7. T9

    Stephenson walked.

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

    −0.6pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  9. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  14. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Tyler Stephenson

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  15. T9

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  16. T9

    Benson struck out looking.

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

    +0.8pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  23. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Will Benson

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  24. T9

    Benson hit for Dunn

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  25. T9

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  26. T9

    McLain struck out swinging.

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

    +1pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 4·CLE 7

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

4

Runs

7

5

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

9

TB

14

1

HR

1

5

BB

7

8

K

8

6

LOB

21

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 8.5·CIN +125/CLE -151

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.57

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+144

Close price

+129

Open no-vig

39.2%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

Player projections

CLE vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.9%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    55.5%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.5%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.0%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.32 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872
  • Will BensonCIN · RF
    SPRINT2872