WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

Live read

Olivia Miles makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot → win prob 41→49% MIN

6:43 - 3RD+4GS

6-3

5147

MIN

7-2

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 383 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort

Natasha HowardMIN · F
ORB%.15799+
Veronica BurtonGS · G
AST/TO3.997
Courtney WilliamsMIN · G
AST/TO2.382

WNBAThu, Jun 46:43 - 3rdVegasMIN -3.5

Updated 0s ago

GS · top performer

Kiah Stokes

C · #41

8.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Olivia Miles

G · #5

18.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WNBA · Box score

6:43 - 3rd

GS6-3

MIN7-2

GS6-3MIN7-2

6-3

box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Core		Rebounds	Playmaking	Defense		Discipline
Player
K. Thornton★F · #5	17	7	4	0	0	0	0	-4
G. Williams★F · #1	15	5	4	3	1	1	1	-1
C. Zandalasini★F · #24	15	8	2	3	1	0	2	+4
K. Stokes★C · #41	15	7	2	1	0	3	0	-1
V. Burton★G · #22	17	6	1	3	0	0	0	+2
J. SalaunF · #13	8	6	2	1	0	1	1	+5
T. HayesG · #15	10	7	2	2	1	0	0	+6
K. CharlesG · #6	8	0	1	0	2	0	0	+5

Team		51	18	15	5	5	5
DNP: L. Amihere, N. Mwenentanda

MIN

7-2

box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Core		Rebounds	Playmaking	Defense		Discipline
Player
N. Howard★F · #1	18	7	5	0	0	0	1	+2
ORB%.15799+ eFG%.66097 TS%.65392
N. Coffey★F · #12	21	0	4	1	0	2	1	-5
K. McBride★G · #21	21	7	4	2	2	0	2	-2
AST/TO1.850 TS%.54436 eFG%.47931
C. Williams★G · #10	22	4	5	3	1	0	3	-3
AST/TO2.382 USG%.25075 eFG%.55872
O. Miles★G · #5	16	20	3	3	0	2	1	+3
TS%.59567 USG%.23764 DRB%.15258

Team		47	26	10	3	4	10
DNP: N. Collier, D. Juhasz, E. Cechova

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

Jun 5

GS@

MINtoday

Jun 20

MIN@

GSupcoming

Aug 20

MIN@

GSupcoming

Aug 25

GS@

MINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

168.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

GS+14541%

MIN-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -3.5↗SpreadBet MIN -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

-2.0 since open

Total

168.5

-3.0 since open

Live · top performers so far

6:43 - 3rd

Game flowGS ↔ MIN

Recent swing: 8pp · 3rd Quarter · 8:06

Just happened

Veronica Burton · makes 11-foot two point shot

K. Stokes

Leading · 6:43 - 3rd · 15 min

7 PTS · 2 REB · 1 AST

On pace: 19 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST

MIN

O. Miles

Leading · 6:43 - 3rd · 16 min

20 PTS · 3 REB · 3 AST

On pace: 50 PTS · 8 REB · 8 AST

How it's going

GS lead MIN 51-47 (6:43 - 3rd). K. Stokes led with 7 PTS, 2 REB, 1 AST.

Win probability

MIN vs GS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

GSstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

33 PTS · 13 REB · 10 AST

GS 29

Bench(5)

18 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST

GS 16

MINstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

38 PTS · 21 REB · 9 AST

GS 26

Bench(4)

9 PTS · 5 REB · 1 AST

GS 9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIN2nd Quarter · 4:20 · 35-36

+7pp→ 61% WP

Maya Caldwell · makes 25-foot three point shot (Kayla McBride assists)

GS3rd Quarter · 9:10 · 47-42

+8pp→ 59% WP

Kiah Stokes · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists)

MIN3rd Quarter · 8:06 · 47-45

+8pp→ 49% WP

Olivia Miles · makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
GS	22	22	7	51
MIN	18	24	5	47

Period scoring

GS won 2 · MIN won 1

Zandalasini 8

Miles 6

Hayes 4

Miles 11

Stokes 5

Miles 3

MIN

Shooting comparison

MIN

42%

19-45

36%

15-42

36%

9-25

3PT

53%

8-15

100%

4-4

90%

9-10

Play-by-play · 219 plays

period

event

player

Q3·6:50
Veronica Burton makes 11-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
GS 51·MIN 47
−5pp
Q3·7:06
Olivia Miles out of bounds bad pass turnover
GS 49·MIN 47
−5pp
Q3·7:15
Natasha Howard defensive rebound
GS 49·MIN 47
+1pp
Q3·7:18
Kayla Thornton misses 23-foot three point jumper
GS 49·MIN 47
+3pp
Q3·7:31
Natasha Howard makes 1-foot layup (Olivia Miles assists)
·
GS 49·MIN 47
+5pp
Q3·7:47
Kiah Stokes makes 2-foot layup (Gabby Williams assists)
· ·
GS 49·MIN 45
−5pp
Q3·8:06
Olivia Miles makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
GS 47·MIN 45
+8pp
Q3·8:18
Cecilia Zandalasini traveling turnover
GS 47·MIN 42
+4pp
Q3·8:34
Cecilia Zandalasini defensive rebound
GS 47·MIN 42
−1pp
Q3·8:37
Courtney Williams misses running pullup jump shot
·
GS 47·MIN 42
−3pp
Q3·8:43
Courtney Williams defensive rebound
·
GS 47·MIN 42
+0.9pp
Q3·8:46
Cecilia Zandalasini misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
GS 47·MIN 42
+3pp
Q3·8:55
Kiah Stokes defensive rebound
GS 47·MIN 42
−1pp
Q3·8:58
Kayla McBride misses 22-foot pullup jump shot
GS 47·MIN 42
−3pp
Q3·9:10
Kiah Stokes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 47·MIN 42
−8pp
Q3·9:16
Cecilia Zandalasini offensive rebound
GS 44·MIN 42
−3pp
Q3·9:21
Veronica Burton misses 24-foot three point jumper
GS 44·MIN 42
+3pp
Q3·9:34
Kiah Stokes defensive rebound
GS 44·MIN 42
−1pp
Q3·9:37
Natasha Howard misses 11-foot turnaround jump shot
GS 44·MIN 42
Q3·10:00
Olivia Miles enters the game for Anastasiia Olairi Kosu
·
GS 44·MIN 42
Q3·10:00
Natasha Howard enters the game for Maya Caldwell
·
GS 44·MIN 42
Q2·0.0
End of the 2nd Quarter
GS 44·MIN 42
+2pp
Q2·2.0
Kayla Thornton defensive rebound
GS 44·MIN 42
−1pp
Q2·4.8
Courtney Williams misses 14-foot pullup jump shot
·
GS 44·MIN 42
−3pp
Q2·9.5
Kayla McBride defensive rebound
GS 44·MIN 42
+0.8pp
Q2·11.4
Gabby Williams misses 3-foot jump bank shot
·
GS 44·MIN 42
+2pp
Q2·11.4
Gabby Williams offensive rebound
·
GS 44·MIN 42
−2pp
Q2·13.3
Gabby Williams misses two point shot
·
GS 44·MIN 42
+2pp
Q2·20.9
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
GS 44·MIN 42
−2pp
Q2·20.9
Nia Coffey blocks Kiah Stokes 's 5-foot layup
·
GS 44·MIN 42
+1pp

Team stats

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

19-45

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

15-42

FG %

9-25

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-15

4-4

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

9-10

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

MIN -3.5·O/U 168.5·GS +145/MIN -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Live · model lean6:43 - 3rdPolls every 30s

53.1%

GS wins · current

Pre-game: 57.7% MIN

GS 51 · 47 MIN

GS +4

Live momentum · cumulative diff

away leadsMIN leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingMIN3rd Quarter · 8:06 · 47-45
+8pp→ 49% WP
Olivia Miles · makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
SwingGS3rd Quarter · 9:10 · 47-42
+8pp→ 59% WP
Kiah Stokes · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists)
SwingMIN2nd Quarter · 4:20 · 35-36
+7pp→ 61% WP
Maya Caldwell · makes 25-foot three point shot (Kayla McBride assists)
SwingGS2nd Quarter · 4:36 · 35-33
+7pp→ 46% WP
Veronica Burton · makes two point shot (Gabby Williams assists)
SwingGS2nd Quarter · 7:44 · 29-23
+7pp→ 58% WP
Janelle Salaun · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tiffany Hayes assists)

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.0%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
69.7%
P(MIN win)
31%
weight
Elo Recent
70.4%
P(MIN win)
35%
weight
Pace Efficiency
69.9%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

41.3%

-28.4ppvs pre-game · GS favored

Leverage

±11.3

pp · next play

peak · 85/100

4-point game

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-6.75

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-192

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

63.1%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Market faded the model hard

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.2pp

best edge · GS · DraftKings

★ best

+145DraftKings

edge +3.2pp · implied 39.1%

MIN

no live price

Book	GS	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+145★	-175	+3.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

MIN vs GS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

105

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Courtney WilliamsMIN
15.6± 11.3low
Olivia MilesMIN
15.1± 3.7low
Natasha HowardMIN
14.9± 11.2low

Rebounds

Natasha HowardMIN
7.1± 4.8low
Nia CoffeyMIN
5.6± 3.4low
Kaila CharlesGS
5.2± 3.7low

Assists

Veronica BurtonGS
5.8± 4.0low
Olivia MilesMIN
5.7± 3.5low
Courtney WilliamsMIN
4.1± 2.3low

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.7± 2.5low
Nia CoffeyMIN
1.0± 1.5low
Laeticia AmihereGS
0.9± 1.5low

Steals

Gabby WilliamsGS
1.8± 2.1low
Kayla McBrideMIN
1.7± 1.6low
Olivia MilesMIN
1.4± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

league avg

MIN

41.0%

FG%

44.4

▶

51.7%

38.2%

3PT %

◀

32.7

37.2%

86.8

PPG

84.9

▶

90.9

19.4

Assists / G

18.0

▶

21.8

10.0

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

14.8

Data via ESPN · wehoop