Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in GS at MIN?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3MIN

6-4

8487

MIN

8-2

WNBAThu, Jun 4FinalSeriesMIN leads series 2-0VegasMIN -3.5

GS · top performer

Tiffany Hayes

G · #15

14.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Olivia Miles

G · #5

25.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowGS ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 24pp · 4th Quarter · 1:04

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. ThorntonF · #5	21	9	3-9	1-4	2-2	-8	5	0
G. WilliamsF · #1	25	5	2-10	1-4	—	-7	5	3
C. ZandalasiniF · #24	27	18	5-14	4-11	4-4	-1	3	3
K. StokesC · #41	21	7	3-5	1-2	—	-14	3	1
V. BurtonG · #22	26	8	3-8	0-2	2-2	-2	2	3
Bench
J. SalaunF · #13	19	17	6-11	5-8	—	+11	5	3
T. HayesG · #15	25	15	6-9	1-1	2-2	+1	5	3
K. CharlesG · #6	15	0	0-2	0-1	—	+4	2	0
K. ChenG · #2	14	5	2-4	1-2	—	-1	1	5
J. JocyteG · #4	7	0	0-4	0-2	—	+2	0	0
Team		84	30-76	14-37	10-10		31	21
DNP: L. Amihere, N. Mwenentanda

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HowardF · #1	30	12	4-12	—	4-6	+8	10	0
N. CoffeyF · #12	35	3	1-6	1-4	—	+3	6	5
K. McBrideG · #21	32	14	4-13	3-6	3-3	-1	8	2
C. WilliamsG · #10	34	17	8-18	0-3	1-2	0	7	3
O. MilesG · #5	28	28	9-16	8-11	2-2	+14	4	7
Bench
A. DelaereF · #8	13	0	0-1	0-1	—	-7	0	0
A. KosuF · #7	13	8	2-4	—	4-4	-4	4	0
T. McCowanC · #15	2	0	0-1	—	—	-1	2	0
M. CaldwellG · #3	12	5	1-2	1-1	2-2	+3	2	1
Team		87	29-73	13-26	16-19		43	18
DNP: N. Collier, D. Juhasz, E. Cechova

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

30-76

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

29-73

FG %

14-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-26

10-10

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN leads series 2-0

Jun 5

GS84@

MIN87today

Jun 20

MIN81@

GS75

Aug 20

MIN@

GSupcoming

Aug 25

GS@

MINupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

168.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

GS+14541%

MIN-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -3.5↗SpreadBet MIN -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

-2.0 since open

Total

168.5

-3.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat GS 87-84. O. Miles paced them with 28 PTS, 4 REB, 7 AST. Cecilia Zandalasini's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs GS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

GSstarters 56% of pts

Starters(5)

47 PTS · 18 REB · 10 AST

GS 35

Bench(5)

37 PTS · 13 REB · 11 AST

GS 32

MINstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 35 REB · 17 AST

GS 56

Bench(4)

13 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST

GS 12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIN4th Quarter · 4:20 · 75-77

+16pp→ 68% WP

Veronica Burton · misses two point shot

GS4th Quarter · 1:04 · 80-84

+14pp→ 31% WP

Natasha Howard · shooting foul

GS4th Quarter · 1:04 · 81-84

+24pp→ 34% WP

Cecilia Zandalasini · makes free throw 1 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
GS	22	22	22	18	84
MIN	18	24	23	22	87

Period scoring

GS won 1 · MIN won 3

Zandalasini 8

Miles 6

Hayes 4

Miles 11

Salaun 9

Miles 8

Zandalasini 10

Williams 9

MIN

Shooting comparison

MIN

39%

30-76

40%

29-73

38%

14-37

3PT

50%

13-26

100%

10-10

84%

16-19

Play-by-play · 394 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 84·MIN 87
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 84·MIN 87
Q4·0.1
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
GS 84·MIN 87
Q4·0.3
Cecilia Zandalasini misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
GS 84·MIN 87
+4pp
Q4·3.8
Janelle Salaun enters the game for Kayla Thornton
·
GS 84·MIN 87
Q4·3.8
Tiffany Hayes enters the game for Kiah Stokes
·
GS 84·MIN 87
Q4·3.8
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
GS 84·MIN 87
Q4·3.8
Golden State Valkyries defensive team rebound
GS 84·MIN 87
Q4·3.8
Kiah Stokes vs. Nia Coffey (Cecilia Zandalasini gains possession)
· ·
GS 84·MIN 87
+2pp
Q4·5.6
Courtney Williams misses free throw 2 of 2
·
GS 84·MIN 87
−5pp
Q4·5.6
Courtney Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
·
GS 84·MIN 87
+0.5pp
Q4·5.6
Gabby Williams personal take foulBIG MOMENT
·
GS 84·MIN 86
+10pp
Q4·9.5
Nia Coffey offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 84·MIN 86
+9pp
Q4·10.8
Olivia Miles misses two point shot
GS 84·MIN 86
Q4·33.8
Kayla Thornton enters the game for Tiffany Hayes
·
GS 84·MIN 86
Q4·33.8
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Janelle Salaun
·
GS 84·MIN 86
Q4·33.8
Lynx timeout
GS 84·MIN 86
Q4·33.8
Tiffany Hayes makes 2-foot two point shot
GS 84·MIN 86
−5pp
Q4·45.6
Courtney Williams makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Nia Coffey assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
GS 82·MIN 86
+9pp
Q4·1:04
Cecilia Zandalasini makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 82·MIN 84
+9pp
Q4·1:04
Cecilia Zandalasini makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 81·MIN 84
−24pp
Q4·1:04
(01:04) [Lynx] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Lynx] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
GS 80·MIN 84
+21pp
Q4·1:04
Lynx Full timeout
GS 80·MIN 84
Q4·1:04
Natasha Howard shooting foulBIG MOMENT
GS 80·MIN 84
−14pp
Q4·1:12
Nia Coffey bad pass turnover (Gabby Williams steals)BIG MOMENT
· ·
GS 80·MIN 84
−7pp
Q4·1:28
Tiffany Hayes makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 80·MIN 84
+6pp
Q4·1:28
Tiffany Hayes makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 79·MIN 84
−2pp
Q4·1:28
Courtney Williams personal foulBIG MOMENT
·
GS 78·MIN 84
−8pp
Q4·1:28
Veronica Burton offensive rebound
GS 78·MIN 84
−2pp
Q4·1:33
Cecilia Zandalasini misses 22-foot three point jumper
GS 78·MIN 84
+3pp

Betting line

MIN -3.5·O/U 168.5·GS +145/MIN -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

innesota Lynx held off Golden State Valkyries, 87–84. Decided by 3.

GS +3.5 cashed (MIN won by 3). Total cleared the 168.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

MIN

eFG%

shooting

48.7%

48.6%

TOV%

ball control

8.0%

12.9%

OREB%

offensive glass

23.7%

38.9%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

13.2%

21.9%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kiah StokesGS · C
AST/TO3.899+
Natasha HowardMIN · F
ORB%.15099
Veronica BurtonGS · G
AST/TO3.797
Nia CoffeyMIN · F
eFG%.60991
Kayla McBrideMIN · G
AST/TO2.391

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.6%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
71.9%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
71.9%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
74.3%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-6.75

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-192

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

63.1%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in GS at MIN?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.8pp

best edge · GS · DraftKings

★ best

+270DraftKings

edge +5.8pp · implied 25.5%

MIN

no live price

Book	GS	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+270★	-375	+5.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIN vs GS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

110

projections · 90 high confidence

Points

Kayla McBrideMIN
21.8± 7.0high
Olivia MilesMIN
19.2± 7.9high
Gabby WilliamsGS
14.0± 6.8high

Rebounds

Natasha HowardMIN
7.5± 2.9high
Olivia MilesMIN
5.2± 2.8high
Kiah StokesGS
5.0± 1.9high

Assists

Olivia MilesMIN
6.0± 2.9high
Veronica BurtonGS
5.5± 2.6high
Courtney WilliamsMIN
4.5± 2.1high

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.9± 1.9high
Nia CoffeyMIN
1.1± 1.1high
Dorka JuhaszMIN
1.0± 0.3low

Steals

Kayla McBrideMIN
1.9± 1.4high
Gabby WilliamsGS
1.7± 1.1high
Natasha HowardMIN
1.7± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Golden State ValkyriesMinnesota Lynx

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Dream71Fever83Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop