MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Happ homered to right (446 feet), Bregman scored. → win prob 7→15% CHC

BOT 9TH+3ATH

ATH

30-31

CHC

32-30

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 981 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Bottom 90-10 outs

Pitcher· ATH

J. Kuhnel

0.0 IP, 0 ER

Batter· CHC

M. Busch

0-2, 1 K

Live · model leanBot 9thPolls every 30s

63.5%

ATH wins · current

Pre-game: 56.6% CHC

ATH 6 · 3 CHC

ATH +3

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 9

away leadsCHC leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingCHCBottom 7th Inning · 6-3
+8pp→ 15% WP
Happ · homered to right (446 feet), Bregman scored.
SwingCHCBottom 6th Inning · 4-1
+7pp→ 16% WP
Crow-Armstrong · homered to right (383 feet).
SwingATHTop 6th Inning · 4-0
+16pp→ 89% WP
Langeliers · hit inside-the-park home run to center (358 feet), Bolte scored.
Lead flipATHTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+14pp→ 52% WP
Umpire · reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Shea Langeliers homers (369 feet) on a fly ball to right center field.
SwingATHTop 3rd Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 48% WP
Gelof · reached on infield single to shortstop.

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.24

J.T. Ginn

3-3 · 2.87 ERA

S. Imanaga

4-6 · 4.37 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 9.5 · +0.5

CHC no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.9%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
56.7%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.9%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.8%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.87 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

1.0%

-55.7ppvs pre-game · ATH favored

Leverage

±2.6

pp · next play

low · 6/100

Mostly decided · 9th or later · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

ATH

no live price

CHC

no live price

Book	ATH	CHC	Best edge
DraftKings	+123	-148	+0.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

CHC vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

Shota ImanagaCHC
5.8± 4.7low
Jameson TaillonCHC
4.9± 2.9low
J.T. GinnATH
4.5± 3.4low

Hits

Tyler SoderstromATH
1.2± 0.8high
Nick KurtzATH
1.1± 1.0high
Zack GelofATH
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Ian HappCHC
2.4± 2.4high
Nick KurtzATH
2.0± 2.0high
Tyler SoderstromATH
2.0± 2.1high

RBIs

Ian HappCHC
0.9± 1.7high
Michael BuschCHC
0.8± 0.9high
Nick KurtzATH
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Jameson TaillonCHC
3.4± 3.0low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
2.9± 2.5low
Shota ImanagaCHC
2.9± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

ATH

Athletics

30-38

vs56.6%CHC

CHC★

Cubs

33-36

ATH 43.4%win prob56.6% CHC

CHC 1494 · ATH 1471Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
H. Bolte★CF	2-4	4	1	2	1	0	0	2	27.8
N. Kurtz★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	5.7
S. LangeliersMulti-HR game★C	2-4	4	2	2	3	2	0	0	30.2
SPRINT28.586
C. Thomas★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.7
T. Soderstrom★LF	1-4	4	1	1	1	1	0	2	1.6
SPRINT26.735
J. Heim★C	1-4	4	1	1	1	1	0	1	1.4
SPRINT25.18
Z. Gelof★3B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.4
SPRINT28.891
J. McNeil★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	11.1
A. Williams★2B	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	19.1
L. ButlerRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.3
B. RookerDH	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.2

Team	7-33	33	6	7	6	4	3	8	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

H. Bolte★CF

2-4

27.8

N. Kurtz★1B

0-3

5.7

S. Langeliers★C

2-4

30.2

C. Thomas★RF

0-3

3.7

T. Soderstrom★LF

1-4

1.6

J. Heim★C

1-4

1.4

Z. Gelof★3B

1-3

0.4

J. McNeil★2B

0-3

11.1

A. Williams★2B

0-3

19.1

L. ButlerRF

0-1

0.3

B. RookerDH

0-1

0.2

Team

7-33

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
J.T. Ginn★SP	6.0	2	1	1	1	8	1	15.4
S. BarlowRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	1	6.0
M. Leiter Jr.RP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	5.6

Team	8.0	4	3	3	1	10	2	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

J.T. Ginn★SP

6.0

15.4

S. BarlowRP

1.0

6.0

M. Leiter Jr.RP

1.0

5.6

Team

8.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
P. Crow-Armstrong★CF	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	2	0.1
SPRINT29.294
M. Conforto★DH	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	4.7
SPRINT2622
M. Busch★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	11.0
A. Bregman★3B	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	4.9
SPRINT25.818
I. Happ★LF	1-3	3	1	1	2	1	0	2	2.7
SPRINT27.662
N. Hoerner★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.8
M. Ballesteros★DH	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.0
SPRINT24.53
P. Ramirez★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.1
D. Swanson★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	6.0
Team	4-27	27	3	4	3	2	1	10	—

Batting

Analytics

Player