Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at IND?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+12IND

ATL

6-3

7183

IND

5-4

WNBAThu, Jun 4FinalSeriesATL leads series 2-1VegasIND -1.5

ATL · top performer

Naz Hillmon

F · #00

10.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Kelsey Mitchell

G · #0

20.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 10pp · 2nd Quarter · 5:00

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HillmonF · #00	28	12	3-8	2-4	4-4	-14	5	1
A. ReeseF · #5	31	11	4-9	0-1	3-4	-8	10	3
A. GrayG · #15	36	13	5-18	0-4	3-3	-11	1	2
J. CanadaG · #3	32	13	4-12	2-5	3-4	-11	3	7
R. HowardG · #10	37	8	2-9	2-5	2-3	-9	4	0
Bench
S. KoneF · #23	1	2	—	—	2-2	+1	1	0
M. OkotC · #11	9	7	3-5	—	1-2	+3	3	0
T. PaopaoG · #2	16	0	0-3	0-2	—	-10	2	1
A. NyeG · #32	1	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
I. NivarG · #21	1	1	—	—	1-2	+1	0	0
I. BorlaseG · #20	7	4	2-3	—	—	-3	1	0
Team		71	23-67	6-21	19-24		30	14
DNP: B. Jones

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BillingsF · #25	13	0	0-2	0-1	—	-5	5	0
A. BostonC · #7	31	19	6-12	3-4	4-4	+8	7	2
K. MitchellG · #0	33	25	11-15	3-4	0-1	+14	0	2
L. HullG · #10	20	4	1-2	0-1	2-2	-7	2	0
C. ClarkG · #22	31	17	6-17	2-8	3-4	+2	7	8
Bench
M. Hines-AllenF · #2	16	5	2-6	0-3	1-2	+10	7	1
M. TimpsonF · #21	14	0	—	—	—	+12	3	0
S. CunninghamG · #8	19	8	2-4	2-3	2-2	+11	2	0
R. JohnsonG · #3	23	5	2-5	1-1	—	+15	2	3
Team		83	30-63	11-25	12-15		35	16
DNP: G. VanSlooten, D. Dantas, T. Harris

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

IND

Home

23-67

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

30-63

FG %

6-21

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-25

19-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-15

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL leads series 2-1

Jun 4

ATL71@

IND83today

Jun 18

ATL108@

IND101

Jun 20

IND96@

ATL113

Aug 16

IND@

ATLupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

IND -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

174.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6h

Moneyline

ATL-10852%

IND-11253%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet IND -1.5↗SpreadBet IND -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

174.5

-2.0 since open

How it ended

IND beat ATL 83-71. K. Mitchell paced them with 25 PTS, 0 REB, 2 AST. IND outscored the other side 23-14 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 23 REB · 13 AST

GS 35

Bench(6)

14 PTS · 7 REB · 1 AST

GS 11

INDstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 21 REB · 12 AST

GS 48

Bench(4)

18 PTS · 14 REB · 4 AST

GS 13

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL2nd Quarter · 5:00 · 21-23

+10pp→ 36% WP

Jordin Canada · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Allisha Gray assists)

ATL3rd Quarter · 6:16 · 43-42

+9pp→ 47% WP

Naz Hillmon · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordin Canada assists)

IND3rd Quarter · 5:09 · 43-47

+9pp→ 70% WP

Caitlin Clark · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	15	14	22	20	71
IND	15	23	24	21	83

Period scoring

ATL won 0 · IND won 3

Hillmon 4

Mitchell 5

Canada 4

Mitchell 9

Gray 9

Mitchell 11

Canada 6

Boston 7

ATL

IND

Shooting comparison

ATL

IND

34%

23-67

48%

30-63

29%

6-21

3PT

44%

11-25

79%

19-24

80%

12-15

Play-by-play · 408 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 71·IND 83
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 71·IND 83
Q4·0.2
Fever offensive team rebound
ATL 71·IND 83
Q4·0.2
Sophie Cunningham misses 22-foot three point jumper
ATL 71·IND 83
Q4·7.0
Sika Kone makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 71·IND 83
Q4·7.0
Sika Kone makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 70·IND 83
Q4·7.0
Myisha Hines-Allen personal foul
ATL 69·IND 83
Q4·11.0
Sika Kone defensive rebound
ATL 69·IND 83
Q4·11.0
Myisha Hines-Allen misses 25-foot three point jumper
ATL 69·IND 83
Q4·11.5
Myisha Hines-Allen offensive rebound
ATL 69·IND 83
Q4·15.2
Myisha Hines-Allen misses 25-foot three point jumper
ATL 69·IND 83
Q4·29.6
Lexie Hull defensive rebound
ATL 69·IND 83
Q4·29.9
Indya Nivar misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 69·IND 83
Q4·29.9
Indya Nivar makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 69·IND 83
Q4·29.9
Sophie Cunningham personal foul
ATL 68·IND 83
Q4·45.8
Sophie Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 68·IND 83
Q4·45.8
Sophie Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 68·IND 82
Q4·45.8
Madina Okot personal foul
ATL 68·IND 81
Q4·1:02
Sophie Cunningham enters the game for Caitlin Clark
·
ATL 68·IND 81
Q4·1:02
Fever Full timeout
ATL 68·IND 81
Q4·1:02
Caitlin Clark defensive rebound
ATL 68·IND 81
Q4·1:06
Te-Hina Paopao misses 24-foot three point jumper
ATL 68·IND 81
Q4·1:18
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for Allisha Gray
·
ATL 68·IND 81
Q4·1:18
Madina Okot enters the game for Rhyne Howard
·
ATL 68·IND 81
Q4·1:18
Sika Kone enters the game for Angel Reese
·
ATL 68·IND 81
Q4·1:18
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
ATL 68·IND 81
Q4·1:18
Lexie Hull enters the game for Aliyah Boston
·
ATL 68·IND 81
Q4·1:18
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell
·
ATL 68·IND 81
Q4·1:18
Caitlin Clark makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 68·IND 81
Q4·1:18
Caitlin Clark makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 68·IND 80

Betting line

IND -1.5·O/U 174.5·ATL -108/IND -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ndiana Fever held off Atlanta Dream, 83–71.

IND -1.5 cashed (won by 12). Total stayed UNDER 174.5 by 20.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

ATL

IND

eFG%

shooting

38.8%

56.3%

TOV%

ball control

12.4%

16.7%

OREB%

offensive glass

23.7%

22.2%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

28.4%

19.0%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Angel ReeseATL · F
ORB%.20899+
Caitlin ClarkIND · G
USG%.30497
Aliyah BostonIND · C
DRB%.28196
Jordin CanadaATL · G
AST/TO2.995
Rhyne HowardATL · G
AST/TO2.288

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.7%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
47.9%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
50.6%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
50.7%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.52

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-105

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

47.4%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at IND?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+38.9pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

ATL

★ best

+310DraftKings

edge +38.9pp · implied 23.0%

IND

no live price

Book	ATL	IND	Best edge
DraftKings	+310★	-445	+38.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

IND vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
25.4± 3.6high
Caitlin ClarkIND
20.5± 10.4high
Allisha GrayATL
19.0± 4.3high

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
10.6± 3.1high
Aliyah BostonIND
7.7± 2.8high
Monique BillingsIND
5.5± 2.5high

Assists

Jordin CanadaATL
7.7± 3.6high
Caitlin ClarkIND
7.3± 2.4high
Rhyne HowardATL
3.4± 1.3high

Blocks

Aliyah BostonIND
1.0± 1.0high
Makayla TimpsonIND
0.9± 1.4high
Rhyne HowardATL
0.7± 1.1high

Steals

Rhyne HowardATL
2.2± 1.6high
Jordin CanadaATL
2.1± 0.7high
Angel ReeseATL
2.0± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Atlanta DreamIndiana Fever

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Valkyries84Lynx87Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop