WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

Live read

Caitlin Clark makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot → win prob 61→70% IND

1:35 - 4TH+12IND

ATL

6-2

6779

IND

4-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 382 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort

Rhyne HowardATL · G
AST/TO2.586
Allisha GrayATL · G
USG%.25681
Naz HillmonATL · F
ORB%.06478

WNBAThu, Jun 41:35 - 4thVegasIND -1.5

Updated 0s ago

ATL · top performer

Naz Hillmon

F · #00

10.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Kelsey Mitchell

G · #0

21.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WNBA · Box score

1:35 - 4th

ATL6-2

IND4-4

ATL6-2IND4-4

ATL

6-2

box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Core		Rebounds	Playmaking	Defense		Discipline
Player
N. Hillmon★F · #00	28	12	5	1	1	0	0	-12
ORB%.06478 DRB%.14050 eFG%.45528
A. ReeseDouble-double★F · #5	31	10	10	3	0	2	4	-5
A. Gray★G · #15	35	13	1	2	2	0	1	-8
USG%.25681 eFG%.53258 TS%.58556
J. Canada★G · #3	31	13	3	7	2	0	3	-8
R. Howard★G · #10	36	8	4	0	2	0	2	-6
AST/TO2.586 TS%.59669 eFG%.55065
M. OkotC · #11	8	7	3	0	0	1	0	+2
T. PaopaoG · #2	14	0	2	1	1	0	1	-11

Team		67	29	14	8	3	11
DNP: B. Jones, S. Kone, A. Nye, I. Nivar

IND

4-4

box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Core		Rebounds	Playmaking	Defense		Discipline
Player
M. Billings★F · #25	13	0	5	0	0	1	0	-5
A. Boston★C · #7	30	19	7	2	0	3	4	+7
K. Mitchell30+ minutes, 0 turnovers★G · #0	32	25	0	2	2	0	0	+11
L. Hull★G · #10	19	4	1	0	0	1	1	-6
C. Clark★G · #22	30	15	5	8	0	1	3	-1
M. Hines-AllenF · #2	14	5	6	1	2	1	2	+9
M. TimpsonF · #21	12	0	3	0	0	0	1	+13
S. CunninghamG · #8	18	6	2	0	0	0	1	+11
R. JohnsonG · #3	21	5	2	3	2	0	1	+13
Team		79	31	16	6	7	13
DNP: G. VanSlooten, D. Dantas, T. Harris

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

Jun 4

ATL@

INDtoday

Jun 18

ATL@

INDupcoming

Jun 20

IND@

ATLupcoming

Aug 16

IND@

ATLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

IND -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

174.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6h

Moneyline

ATL-10852%

IND-11253%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet IND -1.5↗SpreadBet IND -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

174.5

-2.0 since open

Live · top performers so far

1:35 - 4th

Game flowATL ↔ IND

Just happened

Aliyah Boston · makes free throw 2 of 2

ATL

N. Hillmon

Leading · 1:35 - 4th · 28 min

12 PTS · 5 REB · 1 AST

On pace: 17 PTS · 7 REB · 1 AST

IND

K. Mitchell

Leading · 1:35 - 4th · 32 min

25 PTS · 0 REB · 2 AST

On pace: 31 PTS · 0 REB · 3 AST

How it's going

IND lead ATL 79-67 (1:35 - 4th). K. Mitchell paced them with 25 PTS, 0 REB, 2 AST. IND have outscored the other side 23-14 in the 2nd quarter.

Win probability

IND vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 84% of pts

Starters(5)

56 PTS · 23 REB · 13 AST

GS 36

Bench(3)

11 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST

GS 10

INDstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

63 PTS · 18 REB · 12 AST

GS 47

Bench(4)

16 PTS · 13 REB · 4 AST

GS 14

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL2nd Quarter · 5:00 · 21-23

+10pp→ 36% WP

Jordin Canada · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Allisha Gray assists)

ATL3rd Quarter · 6:16 · 43-42

+9pp→ 47% WP

Naz Hillmon · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordin Canada assists)

IND3rd Quarter · 5:09 · 43-47

+9pp→ 70% WP

Caitlin Clark · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	15	14	22	16	67
IND	15	23	24	17	79

Period scoring

ATL won 0 · IND won 3

Hillmon 4

Mitchell 5

Canada 4

Mitchell 9

Gray 9

Mitchell 11

Canada 6

Boston 7

ATL

IND

Shooting comparison

ATL

IND

37%

23-63

50%

30-60

30%

6-20

3PT

50%

11-22

83%

15-18

73%

8-11

Play-by-play · 364 plays

period

event

player

Q4·1:54
Aliyah Boston makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 67·IND 79
Q4·1:54
Aliyah Boston makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 67·IND 78
Q4·1:54
Isobel Borlase personal foul
ATL 67·IND 77
Q4·2:06
Jordin Canada makes 2-foot two point shot
ATL 67·IND 77
Q4·2:19
Raven Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kelsey Mitchell assists)
·
ATL 65·IND 77
+1pp
Q4·2:37
Isobel Borlase makes 1-foot two point shot
ATL 65·IND 74
Q4·2:55
Caitlin Clark makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 63·IND 74
Q4·2:55
Fever offensive team rebound
ATL 63·IND 73
−0.5pp
Q4·2:55
Caitlin Clark misses free throw 1 of 2
ATL 63·IND 73
+2pp
Q4·2:55
(02:55) [Dream] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Dream] charged with a timeout
ATL 63·IND 73
−2pp
Q4·2:55
Dream Full timeout
ATL 63·IND 73
Q4·2:55
Jordin Canada shooting foul
ATL 63·IND 73
+0.9pp
Q4·3:14
Allisha Gray makes running layup (Jordin Canada assists)
·
ATL 63·IND 73
−0.5pp
Q4·3:18
Caitlin Clark lost ball turnover (Jordin Canada steals)
·
ATL 61·IND 73
Q4·3:30
Jordin Canada makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 61·IND 73
Q4·3:30
Jordin Canada makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 60·IND 73
Q4·3:30
Raven Johnson personal foul
ATL 59·IND 73
−0.5pp
Q4·3:36
Aliyah Boston makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 59·IND 73
Q4·3:36
Aliyah Boston makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 59·IND 72
Q4·3:36
Angel Reese personal foul
ATL 59·IND 71
Q4·3:39
Fever Full timeout
ATL 59·IND 71
Q4·3:49
Jordin Canada makes 2-foot two point shot
ATL 59·IND 71
Q4·3:53
Dream Full timeout
ATL 57·IND 71
Q4·3:57
Sophie Cunningham makes 23-foot three point jumper (Caitlin Clark assists)
·
ATL 57·IND 71
+0.5pp
Q4·4:09
Aliyah Boston enters the game for Myisha Hines-Allen
·
ATL 57·IND 68
Q4·4:09
Angel Reese loose ball foul
ATL 57·IND 68
+0.6pp
Q4·4:09
Fever defensive team rebound
ATL 57·IND 68
Q4·4:09
Allisha Gray misses 6-foot fade away jump shot
ATL 57·IND 68
+1pp
Q4·4:25
Caitlin Clark makes driving layup
ATL 57·IND 68
+2pp
Q4·4:35
Angel Reese makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 57·IND 66
+1pp

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

IND

Home

23-63

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

30-60

FG %

6-20

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-22

15-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

8-11

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

IND -1.5·O/U 174.5·ATL -108/IND -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

Live · model lean1:35 - 4thPolls every 30s

56.7%

IND wins · current

Pre-game: 71.4% ATL

ATL 67 · 79 IND

IND +12

Live momentum · cumulative diff

away leadsIND leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingIND3rd Quarter · 5:09 · 43-47
+9pp→ 70% WP
Caitlin Clark · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
SwingATL3rd Quarter · 6:16 · 43-42
+9pp→ 47% WP
Naz Hillmon · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordin Canada assists)
SwingATL2nd Quarter · 5:00 · 21-23
+10pp→ 36% WP
Jordin Canada · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Allisha Gray assists)
SwingIND2nd Quarter · 7:40 · 15-21
+6pp→ 74% WP
Aliyah Boston · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Caitlin Clark assists)
SwingIND2nd Quarter · 8:34 · 15-18
+8pp→ 66% WP
Caitlin Clark · makes 24-foot three pointer (Myisha Hines-Allen assists)

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

29.9%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
46.8%
P(IND win)
31%
weight
Elo Recent
46.7%
P(IND win)
35%
weight
Pace Efficiency
50.8%
P(IND win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.92 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

95.7%

+48.9ppvs pre-game · IND favored

Leverage

±4.6

pp · next play

low · 24/100

Mostly decided · final 2 minutes

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.52

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-105

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

47.4%

Market faded the model hard

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+48.4pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

ATL

★ best

+310DraftKings

edge +48.4pp · implied 23.0%

IND

no live price

Book	ATL	IND	Best edge
DraftKings	+310★	-445	+48.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

IND vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
19.2± 7.6low
Caitlin ClarkIND
18.1± 10.8low
Allisha GrayATL
17.7± 11.4low

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
10.1± 4.9low
Aliyah BostonIND
6.6± 6.0low
Naz HillmonATL
5.0± 3.2low

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
6.9± 3.3low
Jordin CanadaATL
6.0± 4.8low
Rhyne HowardATL
3.6± 3.0low

Blocks

Angel ReeseATL
0.7± 1.3low
Caitlin ClarkIND
0.7± 0.9low
Monique BillingsIND
0.7± 1.1low

Steals

Rhyne HowardATL
2.3± 2.4low
Jordin CanadaATL
1.9± 3.1low
Angel ReeseATL
1.4± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

ATL

league avg

IND

44.0%

FG%

44.4

▶

44.9%

32.3%

3PT %

◀

32.7

31.0%

84.8

PPG

84.9

▶

91.8

20.1

Assists / G

18.0

▶

22.1

14.6

Turnovers / G

13.0

14.8

Data via ESPN · wehoop