NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CAR

VGK

39-26-17

CAR

53-22-7

NHLThu, Jun 4FinalSeriesVGK wins series 2-0VegasCAR -162

VGK · top performer

Brett Howden

C · #21

2Points

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

Sebastian Aho

C · #20

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	1	0	5	2	3	0	16:55
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:55
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	12:06
J. EichelC · #9	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	22:22
T. HertlC · #48	0	1	1	0	1	1	2	16:19
B. HowdenC · #21	2	0	1	3	1	3	0	15:35
W. KarlssonC · #71	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	19:07
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	9:07
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	2	1	3	1	0	0	22:37
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	0	3	1	2	14:22
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	9:35
M. StoneRW · #61	1	0	1	3	0	2	0	19:57

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	21:00
D. CoghlanD · #52	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	16:31
N. HanifinD · #15	0	1	1	0	1	4	0	24:15
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	-1	0	3	2	0	21:08
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5:39
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	28:30

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	26	4	22	.846	63:32

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	1	0	4	4	1	0	21:37
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	0	-2	0	0	1	2	16:58
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	1	1	0	7	1	0	8:49
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	17:52
T. HallLW · #71	0	0	0	4	3	1	0	17:09
M. JankowskiLW · #77	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:47
S. JarvisC · #24	1	0	0	2	3	0	0	20:04
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	-1	3	2	0	2	16:25
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	10:23
J. StaalC · #11	1	0	-1	2	7	1	2	16:54
L. StankovenC · #22	1	0	-1	2	3	0	0	17:04
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	1	0	0	7	0	0	15:28

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	1	1	0	3	0	24:25
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	15:55
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	-2	0	1	0	2	21:51
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	16:18
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	24:09
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	-1	0	5	2	0	20:32

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	26	3	23	.885	63:56

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Series tied 1-1

Jun 3

VGK5@

CAR4

Jun 5

VGK3@

CAR4today

Jun 7

CAR4@

VGK5

Jun 10

CAR5@

VGK3

Jun 12

VGK2@

CAR4

Jun 15

CAR3@

VGK0

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK+13642%

CAR-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat VGK 4-3. S. Aho led the way — 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
VGK	1	1	1	0	3
CAR	0	0	3	1	4

Period scoring

VGK won 2 · CAR won 2

VGK

CAR

Play-by-play · 356 plays

period

event

player

1st OT·3:56
Game End
VGK 3·CAR 4
1st OT·3:56
End of OT
VGK 3·CAR 4
1st OT·3:56
Seth Jarvis Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (6), Sebastian Aho (4)
· ·
VGK 3·CAR 4
1st OT·3:23
Andrei Svechnikov Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
VGK 3·CAR 3
1st OT·3:20
Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Jeremy Lauzon
·
VGK 3·CAR 3
1st OT·3:19
Sebastian Aho Slap Shot Wide Right
·
VGK 3·CAR 3
1st OT·3:17
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Colton Sissons
·
VGK 3·CAR 3
1st OT·3:17
Tomas Hertl Tripping against Jordan Staal
·
VGK 3·CAR 3
1st OT·3:12
Seth Jarvis hit Tomas Hertl
·
VGK 3·CAR 3
1st OT·2:45
William Carrier hit Colton Sissons
·
VGK 3·CAR 3
1st OT·2:30
Colton Sissons faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
VGK 3·CAR 3
1st OT·2:30
Puck in Netting
VGK 3·CAR 3
1st OT·1:51
Dylan Coghlan hit Andrei Svechnikov
·
VGK 3·CAR 3
1st OT·1:42
Giveaway by Noah Hanifin
VGK 3·CAR 3
1st OT·1:38
K'Andre Miller Snap Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 3·CAR 3
1st OT·1:20
K'Andre Miller Snap Shot Wide Right
·
VGK 3·CAR 3
1st OT·1:19
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 3·CAR 3
1st OT·1:19
Goalie Puck Frozen - played from beyond center
VGK 3·CAR 3
1st OT·1:14
Nikolaj Ehlers Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 3·CAR 3
1st OT·1:01
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 3·CAR 3
1st OT·1:01
Goalie Stopped
VGK 3·CAR 3
1st OT·0:58
Pavel Dorofeyev Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
VGK 3·CAR 3
1st OT·0:45
Sean Walker hit Brett Howden
·
VGK 3·CAR 3
1st OT·0:38
Taylor Hall Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 3·CAR 3
1st OT·0:15
Taylor Hall shot blocked by Logan Stankoven
·
VGK 3·CAR 3
1st OT·0:00
Logan Stankoven faceoff won against William Karlsson
·
VGK 3·CAR 3
1st OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
VGK 3·CAR 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 3·CAR 3
3rd·19:34
Mark Stone Backhand saved by Frederik Andersen
·
VGK 3·CAR 3
3rd·19:24
Jalen Chatfield Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 3·CAR 3

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·VGK +136/CAR -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off Vegas Golden Knights, 4–3 in overtime.

VGK +1.5 cashed (CAR won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Ivan Barbashev · VGK17:060.6939.5%45.3%17:06 TOI · 0.69 iXG · 39.5% CF · 45.3% xGF
Jordan Martinook · CAR16:480.5857.5%48.5%16:48 TOI · 0.58 iXG · 57.5% CF · 48.5% xGF
Andrei Svechnikov · CAR15:300.5573.0%51.8%15:30 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 73.0% CF · 51.8% xGF
Brett Howden · VGK15:360.5126.7%45.7%15:36 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 26.7% CF · 45.7% xGF
Taylor Hall · CAR17:180.4270.8%94.0%17:18 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 70.8% CF · 94.0% xGF
Sebastian Aho · CAR21:300.3970.8%53.9%21:30 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 70.8% CF · 53.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Frederik Andersen · CAR23–3.885+0.0923–3 · .885 SV% · +0.09 GSAx
Carter Hart · VGK22–4.846-1.6322–4 · .846 SV% · -1.63 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.0%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
58.0%
P(CAR win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.0%
P(CAR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.0%
P(CAR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.9pp

best edge · CAR · DraftKings

VGK

no live price

CAR

★ best

-140DraftKings

edge +2.9pp · implied 55.1%

Book	VGK	CAR	Best edge
DraftKings	+110	-140★	+2.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.