Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at CIN?

The model favors CIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 26, 2026

FINAL+5DET

DET

15-14

CIN

18-10

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

31,377 attended

Line movement

38 snapshots

CIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

CIN no-vig %

49.6%

open 49.6%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.6%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
56.6%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.2%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.9%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.73 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-108

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at CIN?: The model favors CIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

CIN vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.0± 2.4medium
Tarik SkubalDET
6.3± 2.9low
Casey MizeDET
5.2± 2.7low

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.3± 1.2high
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.1± 0.6high
Blake DunnCIN
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.4± 2.1high
Noelvi MarteCIN
1.8± 1.7high
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.8± 1.6high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 2.1high
Eugenio SuarezCIN
0.7± 1.9high
Colt KeithDET
0.7± 2.0high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
3.6± 2.5low
Rhett LowderCIN
2.6± 3.3low
Brady SingerCIN
2.5± 1.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

CIN

.710

OPS

◀

.718

.700

.315

OBP

◀

.319

.309

4.09

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.23

3.82

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.53

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.45

8.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 8 · CIN 3 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	2	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	8
CIN	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. McGonigleSS	.330	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
G. Torres2B	.250	5	3	3	2	1	0	1
C. Keith3B	.317	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. GreeneLF	.301	5	1	1	0	0	0	3
S. Torkelson1B	.236	4	1	3	1	1	1	1
K. CarpenterRF	.237	5	1	2	2	0	0	1
M. VierlingCF	.208	2	0	0	1	0	2	0
W. PerezRF	.098	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RogersC	.148	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
H. Lee2B	.211	2	1	1	2	1	0	1
J. JonesDH	.233	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. BaezSS	.263	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	8	12	8	3	5	12

Player

.330

.250

.317

.301

.236

.237

.208

.098

.148

.211

.233

.263

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. MonteroSP	5.0	5	3	3	2	5	86
B. HurterRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
W. VestRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
K. FinneganRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
B. HanifeeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	18
Team	9.0	7	3	3	2	7	141

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

141

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FriedlCF	.188	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. McLain2B	.218	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
E. De La CruzSS	.274	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
S. Stewart1B	.291	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. LoweDH	.256	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
S. SteerLF	.216	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BledayLF	1.000	1	1	1	1	1	1	0
J. TrevinoC	.077	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Hayes3B	.114	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. MyersCF	.263	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. BensonRF	.162	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. StephensonC	.156	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	3	7	3	2	2	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. LowderSP	5.0	6	2	2	1	7	94
B. BurkeRP	1.0	1	0	0	2	1	23
S. MollRP	0.1	1	2	1	0	1	10
P. JohnsonRP	0.2	2	2	2	0	1	14
J. FrancoRP	2.0	2	2	2	2	2	34
Team	9.0	12	8	7	5	12	175

Team

DET

CIN

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

CIN vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.