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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1ATH
ATH

ATH

20-18

4
3
BAL

BAL

17-22

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
39,311 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

BAL no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

-1.0-2.0BAL SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 9.0TOTAL59.1%51.1%BAL NO-VIG %MODEL 51.5%May 7, 10 PMMay 8, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 4 · BAL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BAL +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH0000300104
BAL0001010013

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 9, 26sim 99
    116
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 98
    63
    7(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 97
    61
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 97
    121
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 97
    131
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 20, 26sim 97
    243
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Fri, May 8·Final/SeriesATH wins series 2-1/VegasBAL -141

Recap · MLB

Athletics went into Baltimore Orioles and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ATH +1.5 cashed (BAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 9.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Jacob Wilson

Jacob Wilson

SS

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Adley Rutschman

Adley Rutschman

C

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH20-18
4
3
BAL17-22
ATH20-18·BAL17-22
ATH

ATH

20-18

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
2-55022000
SPRINT26.632
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-55010003
SPRINT28.586
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
0-44100002
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
1-44010002
C. CortesC. Cortes★RF
0-44000001
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
2-33121010
SPRINT27.148
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
1-44110002
SPRINT26.530
Z. GelofZ. Gelof★3B
1-33111011
SPRINT28.891
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-33000001
Team8-35354840212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LopezJ. Lopez★SP
5.1322252
J. SternerJ. SternerRP
0.2000000
S. BarlowS. BarlowRP
1.0000010
J. KuhnelJ. KuhnelRP
1.0000000
J. PerkinsJ. PerkinsRP
0.2111120
H. HarrisH. HarrisRP
0.1000110
Team9.0433492
BAL

BAL

17-22

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-44000002
SPRINT27.457
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-33000010
SPRINT28.175
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
2-33221110
SPRINT26.632
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-44111101
SPRINT25.29
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
0-33000000
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-22000001
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
0-33000012
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
0-44000002
W. WilsonW. Wilson★3B
0-22000010
D. BeaversD. BeaversRF
0-11000001
S. BasalloS. BasalloC
1-22011000
SPRINT25.310
Team4-3131343249
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. BradishK. Bradish★SP
7.05331100
TT. GibsonSP
2.0311120
Team9.08442120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • J. Lopez
    91 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      47%·76.7 mph·31% whiff
    • FF
      31%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·85.3 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      5%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      2%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Perkins
    25 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      44%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      36%·86.2 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      20%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Barlow
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • CU
      50%·75.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      36%·79.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      7%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Harris
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      64%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      27%·74.7 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      9%·83.9 mph·— whiff
  • J. Kuhnel
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      50%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      30%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·88.8 mph·— whiff
  • J. Sterner
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      57%·79.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·92.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      14%·87.9 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • K. Bradish
    96 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      35%·94.6 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      30%·83.8 mph·54% whiff
    • SL
      19%·87.4 mph·44% whiff
    • FF
      16%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Gibson
    30 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      33%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      30%·82.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      17%·87.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      13%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·95.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

4

4

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATH wins series 2-1

May 8ATHATH4@BALBAL3today
May 9ATHATH6@BALBAL2
May 10ATHATH1@BALBAL2

Season series

ATH leads series 1-0

May 8ATHATH4@BALBAL3today
May 9ATHATH6@BALBAL2
May 10ATHATH1@BALBAL2
Aug 29BALBAL@ATHATHupcoming
Aug 30BALBAL@ATHATHupcoming
Aug 30BALBAL@ATHATHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ATHATH+11746%
BALBAL-14159%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 5th Inning

ATHATH
J. Wilson

J. Wilson

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

J. Lopez

J. Lopez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

BALBAL
A. Rutschman

A. Rutschman

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

K. Bradish

K. Bradish

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

7.0 IP · 10 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ATH beat BAL 4-3. Kurtz's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BAL vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHTop 5th Inning · 3-1
+20pp→ 74% WP

Kurtz · tripled to right, Butler scored and Gelof scored.

ATHTop 8th Inning · 4-2
+15pp→ 83% WP

Wilson · singled to right, Soderstrom scored, Rooker to third.

ATHBottom 9th Inning · 4-3
+17pp→ 100% WP

Jackson · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH0000300104
BAL0001010013

Period scoring

ATH won 2 · BAL won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Alonso 1

3
0

Inn 5

Kurtz 2

0
1

Inn 6

Rutschman 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Wilson 1

0
1

Inn 9

Basallo 1

ATH
BAL

Play-by-play · 556 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATH 4·BAL 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 3

  3. B9

    Jackson struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 3

    −17pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 3

  10. B9

    Hogan Harris pitches to Jeremiah Jackson

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 3

  11. B9

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 3

  12. B9

    Taveras walked, Cowser to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 3

    +6pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 3

  18. B9

    Hogan Harris pitches to Leody Taveras

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 3

  19. B9

    H. Harris relieved Perkins

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 3

  20. B9

    Cowser ran for Basallo

    ·

    ATH 4·BAL 3

  21. B9

    ·

    ATH 4·BAL 3

  22. B9

    Basallo singled to center, Rutschman scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 3

    +6pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 2

  26. B9

    Rutschman to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    ATH 4·BAL 2

  27. B9

    Rutschman to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    ATH 4·BAL 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 4·BAL 2

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

4

Runs

3

8

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

10

TB

10

0

HR

2

2

BB

4

12

K

9

15

LOB

9

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 9.5·ATH +117/BAL -141

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

BAL vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Luis SeverinoATH
    6.0± 3.1low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.6± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Brent RookerATH
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.8%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    53.1%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.3%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.7%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.92 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.