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TOP 8TH+5ATH

ATH

20-18

BAL

17-22

Live · model leanTop 8thPolls every 30s

73.7%

ATH wins · current

Pre-game: 52.1% ATH

ATH 5 · 0 BAL

ATH +5

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 7

away leadsBAL leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingATHBottom 5th Inning · 5-0
+6pp→ 90% WP
Alonso · flied out to left.
SwingBALBottom 5th Inning · 5-0
+8pp→ 19% WP
Henderson · doubled to right, Jackson to third.
SwingATHTop 3rd Inning · 4-0
+22pp→ 84% WP
Rooker · homered to right (365 feet), Kurtz scored and Langeliers scored.
Lead flipATHBottom 1st Inning · 1-0
+9pp→ 55% WP
Ward · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Henderson out at second.
SwingATHTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+8pp→ 60% WP
Langeliers · singled to left, Kurtz scored.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.94

A. Civale

3-1 · 2.95 ERA

S. Baz

1-3 · 4.99 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

BAL no-vig %

55.1%

open 52.2% · +2.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.7%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
47.9%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.4%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.8%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

85% confidence

Win prob · home

1.0%

-46.9ppvs pre-game · ATH favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.93

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+100

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Market faded the model hard

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

BAL vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 68 high confidence

Strikeouts

Kyle BradishBAL
5.6± 3.1low
Luis SeverinoATH
5.4± 2.9low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
4.9± 2.3low

Hits

Shea LangeliersATH
1.6± 1.0high
Jacob WilsonATH
1.3± 0.5high
Carlos CortesATH
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Shea LangeliersATH
3.0± 2.8high
Pete AlonsoBAL
2.3± 1.6high
Adley RutschmanBAL
2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

Adley RutschmanBAL
1.0± 1.3high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.8± 0.9high
Brent RookerATH
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Shane BazBAL
3.1± 2.1low
Jacob LopezATH
3.0± 2.3low
Chris BassittBAL
3.0± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

● Live

ATH★

Athletics

20-18

vs52.1%ATH

BAL

Orioles

17-22

ATH 52.1%win prob47.9% BAL

ATH 1511 · BAL 1473Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

MLBSat, May 9Top 8thSeriesATH leads series 1-0VegasBAL -126

Updated 0s ago

ATH · top performer

Brent Rooker

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

RBI

BAL · top performer

Samuel Basallo

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Top 8th

ATH20-18

BAL17-22

ATH20-18BAL17-22

ATH

20-18

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
N. Kurtz★1B	2-3	3	3	2	0	0	1	0
S. Langeliers★C	2-3	3	1	2	2	0	0	0
T. Soderstrom★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Rooker★RF	1-3	3	1	1	3	1	1	0
C. Cortes★RF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Wilson★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
L. Butler★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Z. Gelof★CF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
J. McNeil★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1

Team	7-27	27	5	7	5	1	3	8

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
A. Civale★SP	5.0	6	0	0	3	6	0
H. HarrisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0
S. BarlowRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0
Team	7.0	6	0	0	4	10	0

BAL

17-22

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
G. Henderson★SS	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
T. Ward★LF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	3	0
A. Rutschman★C	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
P. Alonso★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Basallo★C	2-3	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
L. Taveras★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Beavers★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. Mayo★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. Jackson★2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team	6-25	25	0	6	0	0	4	10

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
S. Baz★SP	4.2	5	5	5	3	5	1
L. TrivinoRP	2.1	2	0	0	0	3	0

Team	7.0	7	5	5	3	8	1

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

A. Civale
97 pitches30% CSW
- FC
  35%87.6 mph20% whiff
- CU
  28%77.0 mph29% whiff
- SI
  25%91.2 mph13% whiff
- FF
  9%91.4 mph0% whiff
- FS
  2%82.7 mph— whiff
- SL
  1%79.8 mph0% whiff
S. Barlow
16 pitches44% CSW
- ST
  38%79.1 mph50% whiff
- CU
  25%75.6 mph67% whiff
- FF
  19%89.5 mph0% whiff
- SI
  19%89.4 mph100% whiff
H. Harris
14 pitches36% CSW
- FF
  57%94.5 mph0% whiff
- CU
  29%73.8 mph0% whiff
- SL
  14%84.5 mph100% whiff

BAL

S. Baz
100 pitches22% CSW
- FF
  44%95.6 mph14% whiff
- KC
  30%84.8 mph21% whiff
- SI
  11%95.2 mph0% whiff
- FC
  9%88.3 mph20% whiff
- CH
  6%89.0 mph0% whiff
L. Trivino
31 pitches32% CSW
- FC
  42%92.6 mph43% whiff
- SI
  32%95.6 mph0% whiff
- CH
  19%87.2 mph25% whiff
- FF
  3%95.9 mph100% whiff
- ST
  3%81.9 mph— whiff
D. Enns
1 pitches100% CSW
- FF
  100%92.4 mph100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

ATH leads series 1-0

May 8

ATH4@

BAL3

May 9

ATH@

BALtoday

May 10

ATH@

BALupcoming

Season series

ATH leads series 1-0

May 8

ATH4@

BAL3

May 9

ATH@

BALtoday

May 10

ATH@

BALupcoming

Aug 29

BAL@

ATHupcoming

Aug 30

BAL@

ATHupcoming

Aug 30

BAL@

ATHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATH -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ATH+10549%

BAL-12656%

16· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATH -1.5↗SpreadBet ATH -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

ATHSP

A. Civale

#45 · 3-1

ERA

2.95

—

Last 3 starts

5/3vs

CLE6.0 IP · 1 ER · 3 KW(3-1)

4/29vs

KC5.0 IP · 0 ER · 3 K-

4/22@

SEA5.1 IP · 3 ER · 5 K-

BALSP

S. Baz

#34 · 1-3

ERA

4.99

—

Last 3 starts

5/4@

NYY5.2 IP · 5 ER · 4 KL(1-3)

4/28vs

HOU5.2 IP · 1 ER · 6 KW(1-2)

4/21@

KC6.1 IP · 4 ER · 4 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

ATH5L · 4R

1
N. Kurtz
1B · #16
L
2
S. Langeliers
C · #23
R
3
T. Soderstrom
LF · #21
L
4
B. Rooker
DH · #25
R
5
C. Cortes
RF · #26
L
6
J. Wilson
SS · #5
R
7
L. Butler
CF · #4
L
8
Z. Gelof
3B · #20
R
9
J. McNeil
2B · #22
L

BAL3L · 4R · 2S

1
G. Henderson
SS · #2
L
2
T. Ward
LF · #3
R
3
A. Rutschman
C · #35
B
4
P. Alonso
1B · #25
R
5
S. Basallo
DH · #29
L
6
L. Taveras
CF · #30
B
7
D. Beavers
RF · #12
L
8
C. Mayo
3B · #16
R
9
J. Jackson
2B · #82
R

Live · top performers so far

Top 8th

Game flowATH ↔ BAL

Recent swing: 8pp · Bottom 5th Inning

Just happened

Dietrich Enns · pitches to Colby Thomas

ATH

B. Rooker

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

A. Civale

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 8 K · 0 ER

BAL

S. Basallo

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

S. Baz

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 5 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 8 K · 8 ER

How it's going

ATH lead BAL 5-0 (Top 8th). Rooker's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Win probability

BAL vs ATH

Score progression

0 lead changes

ATH5

BAL0

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATHTop 1st Inning · 1-0

+8pp→ 60% WP

Langeliers · singled to left, Kurtz scored.

ATHBottom 1st Inning · 1-0

+9pp→ 55% WP

Ward · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Henderson out at second.

ATHTop 3rd Inning · 4-0

+22pp→ 84% WP

Rooker · homered to right (365 feet), Kurtz scored and Langeliers scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	R
ATH	1	0	3	0	1	0	0	0	5
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—	0

Period scoring

ATH won 3 · BAL won 0

Inn 1

Langeliers 1

Inn 2

Inn 3

Rooker 3

Inn 4

Inn 5

Langeliers 1

Inn 6

Inn 7

Inn 8

ATH

BAL

Play-by-play · 479 plays

period

event

player

T8
Dietrich Enns pitches to Colby Thomas
·
ATH 5·BAL 0
T8
Enns relieved Trivino
·
ATH 5·BAL 0
T8
Thomas hit for Cortes
·
ATH 5·BAL 0
T8
Top of the 8th inning
ATH 5·BAL 0
End 7t
End of the 7th inning
ATH 5·BAL 0
B7
· ·
ATH 5·BAL 0
B7
Rutschman struck out swinging.
· ·
ATH 5·BAL 0
−1pp
B7
Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
ATH 5·BAL 0
B7
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
ATH 5·BAL 0
B7
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
· ·
ATH 5·BAL 0
B7
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
ATH 5·BAL 0
B7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
· ·
ATH 5·BAL 0
B7
Scott Barlow pitches to Adley Rutschman
· ·
ATH 5·BAL 0
B7
·
ATH 5·BAL 0
B7
Ward walked.
·
ATH 5·BAL 0
+0.7pp
B7
Pitch 6 : Ball 4
·
ATH 5·BAL 0
B7
Pitch 5 : Ball 3
·
ATH 5·BAL 0
B7
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
·
ATH 5·BAL 0
B7
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking
·
ATH 5·BAL 0
B7
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
ATH 5·BAL 0
B7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
ATH 5·BAL 0
B7
Scott Barlow pitches to Taylor Ward
·
ATH 5·BAL 0
B7
·
ATH 5·BAL 0
B7
Henderson struck out swinging.
·
ATH 5·BAL 0
−0.8pp
B7
Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
ATH 5·BAL 0
B7
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
·
ATH 5·BAL 0
B7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
ATH 5·BAL 0
B7
Scott Barlow pitches to Gunnar Henderson
·
ATH 5·BAL 0
B7
·
ATH 5·BAL 0
B7
Jackson grounded out to third.
·
ATH 5·BAL 0
−1pp

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

ATH -1.5·O/U 9.5·ATH +105/BAL -126

DraftKings · via ESPN