Jun 7, 25sim 95
693
3(H)79
EloWin probTime of year
PHX
52Live9:25 - 4th
SEA
55Updated 11:32 PM ET
Live read
Alyssa Thomas misses free throw 1 of 1 → win prob 53→61% SEA
9:25 - 4TH+3SEA
PHX
2-8
5255
SEA
3-7
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 381 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Natasha MackPHX · FTS%.71899+
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.30897
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA · GUSG%.26587
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FAST/TO2.377
DeWanna BonnerPHX · FDRB%.21573
Updated 0s ago
PHX · top performer
Natasha Mack
F · #4
16.6Game score
14
Pts
7
Reb
2
Ast
SEA · top performer
A
Awa Fam
C · #11
10.9Game score
16
Pts
3
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Seattle Storm · live
WNBA · Box score
9:25 - 4th
PHX2-8
5255
SEA3-7
PHX2-8SEA3-7
PHX
2-8
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 27 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -1 | |
AST/TO2.377 DRB%.20570 ORB%.05563 | ||||||||
| 17 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | |
TS%.71899+ eFG%.69399+ ORB%.14297 | ||||||||
| 24 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -6 | |
| 26 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
USG%.30897 TS%.45817 DRB%.08913 | ||||||||
| 20 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | |
| 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -7 | |
| 12 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| Team | 52 | 35 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 12 | ||
| DNP: K. Linskens, S. Whitcomb, Q. Carter | ||||||||
SEA
3-7
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 16 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +5 | |
| 19 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| 26 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| 22 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6 | |
USG%.24767 AST/TO1.967 eFG%.49553 | ||||||||
| 22 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +8 | |
USG%.26587 DRB%.18567 ORB%.04157 | ||||||||
| 14 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 13 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | |
| 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| Team | 55 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 9 | ||
| DNP: J. Holmes, E. Magbegor, D. Malonga, L. Brown | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
38
FG %
42
13
Ast
14
Season series
Jun 4PHX@SEAtoday
PHX@SEAtodayJun 20SEA@PHXupcoming
SEA@PHXupcomingJul 3SEA@PHXupcoming
SEA@PHXupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
PHX -7.5
Half-pt above key 7
1.0pt· 6.3h
Total
160.5
Standard · -4.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.3h
Moneyline
PHX-27073%SEA+22031%20· 6.3h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
7.5
+2.0 since open
Total
160.5
-1.0 since open
Live · top performers so far
9:25 - 4thGame flowPHX ↔ SEA
Recent swing: 10pp · 3rd Quarter · 1:03
Just happened
Mercury Full timeout
PHXN. Mack
FLeading · 9:25 - 4th · 17 min
14 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
On pace: 33 PTS · 16 REB · 5 AST
SEAA. Fam
CLeading · 9:25 - 4th · 26 min
16 PTS · 3 REB · 2 AST
On pace: 25 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
How it's going
SEA lead PHX 55-52 (9:25 - 4th). A. Fam led with 16 PTS, 3 REB, 2 AST.
Win probability
SEA vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 81% of ptsStarters(5)
42 PTS · 28 REB · 9 AST
GS 34
Bench(4)
10 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST
GS 6
SEAstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
41 PTS · 14 REB · 11 AST
GS 29
Bench(4)
14 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST
GS 10
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX3rd Quarter · 8:36 · 40-35
+11pp→ 76% WP
Noemie Brochant · misses 7-foot hook shot
SEA3rd Quarter · 5:02 · 46-47
+9pp→ 44% WP
Natisha Hiedeman · makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot
SEA3rd Quarter · 2:26 · 48-53
+10pp→ 69% WP
Zia Cooke · enters the game for Flau'jae Johnson
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 21 | 15 | 16 | 0 | 52 |
| SEA | 15 | 18 | 22 | 0 | 55 |
Period scoring
PHX won 1 · SEA won 2
21
15
Q1
Mack 6
Cooke 5
15
18
Q2
Mack 4
Hiedeman 5
16
22
Q3
Thomas 4
Hiedeman 10
0
0
Q4
PHX
SEA
Shooting comparison
PHX
SEA
38%
19-50
FG
42%
24-57
11%
2-18
3PT
30%
7-23
75%
12-16
FT
0%
0-1
Play-by-play · 293 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·9:25
Mercury Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
PHX 52·SEA 55
−5pp
- Q4·9:38
Jade Melbourne defensive rebound
PHX 52·SEA 55
+1pp
- Q4·9:43
DeWanna Bonner misses 25-foot three point jumper
PHX 52·SEA 55
+4pp
- Q4·10:00
Kahleah Copper enters the game for Jovana Nogic
·
PHX 52·SEA 55
- Q4·10:00
Natasha Mack enters the game for Alyssa Thomas
·
PHX 52·SEA 55
- Q4·10:00
Jordan Horston enters the game for Katie Lou Samuelson
·
PHX 52·SEA 55
- Q4·10:00
Jade Melbourne enters the game for Natisha Hiedeman
·
PHX 52·SEA 55
- Q3·0.0
End of the 3rd Quarter
PHX 52·SEA 55
−2pp
- Q3·0.4
Storm offensive team rebound
PHX 52·SEA 55
+4pp
- Q3·0.4
Natisha Hiedeman misses 20-foot step back jumpshot
PHX 52·SEA 55
−4pp
- Q3·24.6
Lexi Held bad pass turnover (Zia Cooke steals)
·
PHX 52·SEA 55
+5pp
- Q3·36.1
Monique Akoa Makani defensive rebound
PHX 52·SEA 55
−1pp
- Q3·40.5
Natisha Hiedeman misses 12-foot turnaround jump shot
PHX 52·SEA 55
−3pp
- Q3·54.2
Stefanie Dolson defensive rebound
PHX 52·SEA 55
- Q3·56.3
Monique Akoa Makani enters the game for Kahleah Copper
·
PHX 52·SEA 55
−0.6pp
- Q3·56.3
Alyssa Thomas misses free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
PHX 52·SEA 55
+8pp
- Q3·56.3
Stefanie Dolson enters the game for Awa Fam
·
PHX 52·SEA 55
- Q3·56.3
Mackenzie Holmes shooting foulBIG MOMENT
· ·
PHX 52·SEA 55
−8pp
- Q3·56.3
Alyssa Thomas makes 3-foot layup (Jovana Nogic assists)
·
PHX 52·SEA 55
+2pp
- Q3·1:03
Lexi Held enters the game for Noemie BrochantBIG MOMENT
·
PHX 50·SEA 55
−10pp
- Q3·1:03
Katie Lou Samuelson personal foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 50·SEA 55
−7pp
- Q3·1:06
Kahleah Copper defensive rebound
PHX 50·SEA 55
−1pp
- Q3·1:10
Natisha Hiedeman misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
PHX 50·SEA 55
−3pp
- Q3·1:24
Awa Fam defensive rebound
PHX 50·SEA 55
+1pp
- Q3·1:26
Kahleah Copper misses driving layup
PHX 50·SEA 55
+4pp
- Q3·1:42
Natisha Hiedeman makes 2-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 50·SEA 55
+6pp
- Q3·2:04
Noemie Brochant makes 3-foot jump bank shot (Jovana Nogic assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 50·SEA 53
−5pp
- Q3·2:11
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
PHX 48·SEA 53
−1pp
- Q3·2:13
Zia Cooke misses 9-foot pullup jump shot
PHX 48·SEA 53
−3pp
- Q3·2:26
Zia Cooke enters the game for Flau'jae JohnsonBIG MOMENT
·
PHX 48·SEA 53
+10pp
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
19-50
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
24-57
38
FG %
42
2-18
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-23
12-16
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
0-1
13
Assists
14
12
Turnovers
9
Betting line
PHX -7.5·O/U 160.5·PHX -270/SEA +220
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q4away leadsSEA leads
Key moments · live
newest firstEnsemble breakdown
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
32.7%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
31%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Live model · pick
Live · model intelligence
calibrated · 90d
Win prob · home
66.2%
+9.8ppvs pre-game · SEA favored
Leverage
±13.0
pp · next play
peak · 100/100
3-point game
Live edge
—
No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.
Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.
Receipts
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-3.21
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+164
Close price
+190
Open no-vig
36.3%
Close no-vig
33.1%
Market faded the model hard
Player props
Player projections
SEA vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.4± 7.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.0± 7.5low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.4± 4.7low
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX6.6± 4.2low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.8± 2.3low
- Natisha HiedemanSEA3.9± 2.7low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.8± 2.3low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.4± 1.6low
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX1.8± 1.8low
- Jordan HorstonSEA1.2± 1.9low
- Natasha MackPHX1.0± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team rate stats
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
SEA
41.5%
FG%
◀
44.5
40.7%
32.0%
3PT %
32.8
32.0%
83.0
PPG
◀
85.0
76.4
17.7
Assists / G
◀
18.0
16.8
12.6
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.3