Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHX at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4PHX

PHX

3-8

7268

SEA

3-8

WNBAWed, Jun 3FinalSeriesPHX wins series 3-0VegasPHX -7.5

PHX · top performer

Natasha Mack

F · #4

20.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SEA · top performer

Awa Fam

C · #11

12.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHX ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 36pp · 4th Quarter · 2:23

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. ThomasF · #25	34	9	4-9	—	1-3	+2	9	5
N. MackF · #4	26	16	7-7	—	2-2	+11	10	2
N. BrochantF · #1	24	4	2-7	0-2	—	-6	4	1
K. CopperG · #2	35	16	4-14	2-6	6-6	+4	6	1
M. Akoa MakaniG · #8	28	12	3-8	1-4	5-7	+4	6	2
Bench
D. BonnerF · #24	25	10	3-12	0-7	4-5	0	2	1
V. AyayiF · #11	4	1	0-2	—	1-2	+2	3	1
J. NogicG · #29	12	4	1-2	0-1	2-2	-4	2	2
L. HeldG · #10	13	0	0-3	0-2	—	+7	2	2
Team		72	24-64	3-22	21-27		44	17
DNP: K. Linskens, S. Whitcomb, Q. Carter

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. HorstonF · #23	21	5	2-5	1-4	—	-4	5	1
S. DolsonC · #31	25	0	0-1	0-1	—	0	2	1
A. FamC · #11	33	18	9-17	0-4	—	-1	6	2
N. HiedemanG · #2	30	15	6-17	3-8	0-1	+3	4	4
F. JohnsonG · #4	29	9	3-11	2-6	1-2	+5	4	5
Bench
K. SamuelsonF · #33	17	3	1-7	1-5	—	-2	2	1
M. HolmesF · #54	19	4	2-5	0-1	—	-8	6	1
Z. CookeG · #7	14	9	4-9	1-3	—	-9	1	0
J. MelbourneG · #5	13	5	1-1	1-1	2-2	-4	4	2
Team		68	28-73	9-33	3-5		34	17
DNP: J. Holmes, E. Magbegor, D. Malonga, L. Brown

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

24-64

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

28-73

FG %

3-22

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-33

21-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

3-5

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHX wins series 3-0

Jun 4

PHX72@

SEA68today

Jun 20

SEA73@

PHX93

Jul 3

SEA67@

PHX90

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

1.0pt· 6.3h

Total

160.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

PHX-27073%

SEA+22031%

20· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -7.5↗SpreadBet PHX -7.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

+2.0 since open

Total

160.5

-1.0 since open

How it ended

PHX beat SEA 72-68. N. Mack led with 16 PTS, 10 REB, 2 AST. Awa Fam's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (36pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SEA vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 35 REB · 11 AST

GS 48

Bench(4)

15 PTS · 9 REB · 6 AST

GS 11

SEAstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

47 PTS · 21 REB · 13 AST

GS 30

Bench(4)

21 PTS · 13 REB · 4 AST

GS 14

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SEA4th Quarter · 7:11 · 59-58

+30pp→ 39% WP

Natisha Hiedeman · enters the game for Zia Cooke

PHX4th Quarter · 2:44 · 67-61

+33pp→ 94% WP

Natisha Hiedeman · misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot

PHX4th Quarter · 2:23 · 68-61

+36pp→ 97% WP

Awa Fam · misses 6-foot two point shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	21	15	16	20	72
SEA	15	18	22	13	68

Period scoring

PHX won 2 · SEA won 2

Mack 6

Cooke 5

Mack 4

Hiedeman 5

Thomas 4

Hiedeman 10

Makani 7

Fam 4

PHX

SEA

Shooting comparison

PHX

SEA

38%

24-64

38%

28-73

14%

3-22

3PT

27%

9-33

78%

21-27

60%

3-5

Play-by-play · 405 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 72·SEA 68
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 72·SEA 68
Q4·0.1
Storm offensive team rebound
PHX 72·SEA 68
Q4·0.4
Katie Lou Samuelson misses 28-foot three point jumper
PHX 72·SEA 68
Q4·0.6
Kahleah Copper vs. Stefanie Dolson (Katie Lou Samuelson gains possession)
· ·
PHX 72·SEA 68
−2pp
Q4·4.5
Stefanie Dolson enters the game for Jordan Horston
·
PHX 72·SEA 68
Q4·4.5
Katie Lou Samuelson enters the game for Awa Fam
·
PHX 72·SEA 68
Q4·4.5
Storm timeout
PHX 72·SEA 68
Q4·4.5
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 72·SEA 68
+1pp
Q4·4.5
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 71·SEA 68
Q4·4.5
Jade Melbourne personal foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 70·SEA 68
−6pp
Q4·5.9
Jordan Horston enters the game for Katie Lou Samuelson
·
PHX 70·SEA 68
Q4·5.9
Mercury timeout
PHX 70·SEA 68
−2pp
Q4·7.1
Katie Lou Samuelson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Natisha Hiedeman assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 70·SEA 68
+7pp
Q4·17.0
DeWanna Bonner kicked ball violation
PHX 70·SEA 65
−2pp
Q4·17.1
Katie Lou Samuelson enters the game for Zia Cooke
·
PHX 70·SEA 65
Q4·17.1
Storm Full timeout
PHX 70·SEA 65
Q4·17.1
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 70·SEA 65
+2pp
Q4·17.1
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 69·SEA 65
−0.6pp
Q4·17.1
Zia Cooke personal foul
PHX 68·SEA 65
−5pp
Q4·18.9
Zia Cooke makes running layup (Natisha Hiedeman assists)
·
PHX 68·SEA 65
+2pp
Q4·23.0
Monique Akoa Makani bad pass turnover (Jade Melbourne steals)
·
PHX 68·SEA 63
+5pp
Q4·26.5
Awa Fam personal foul
PHX 68·SEA 63
−5pp
Q4·43.4
Natasha Mack defensive rebound
PHX 68·SEA 63
−2pp
Q4·47.2
Zia Cooke misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
PHX 68·SEA 63
−5pp
Q4·49.2
Awa Fam offensive rebound
PHX 68·SEA 63
+4pp
Q4·52.6
Flau'jae Johnson misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
PHX 68·SEA 63
−5pp
Q4·1:00
Flau'jae Johnson defensive rebound
PHX 68·SEA 63
+2pp
Q4·1:03
DeWanna Bonner misses 17-foot step back jumpshot
PHX 68·SEA 63
+5pp
Q4·1:07
Mercury offensive team rebound
PHX 68·SEA 63
−5pp

Betting line

PHX -7.5·O/U 160.5·PHX -270/SEA +220

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

hoenix Mercury went into Seattle Storm and beat them, 72–68. Decided by 4.

SEA +7.5 cashed (PHX won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 160.5 by 20.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

PHX

SEA

eFG%

shooting

39.8%

44.5%

TOV%

ball control

14.6%

15.7%

OREB%

offensive glass

25.0%

10.5%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

32.8%

4.1%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Natasha MackPHX · F
TS%.70899+
Kahleah CopperPHX · G
USG%.30599
Alyssa ThomasPHX · F
AST/TO2.389
Stefanie DolsonSEA · C
TS%.64588
Natisha HiedemanSEA · G
USG%.25484

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.9%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
51.6%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
50.5%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
48.2%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-3.21

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+164

Close price

+190

Open no-vig

36.3%

Close no-vig

33.1%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHX at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+32.0pp

best edge · SEA · DraftKings

PHX

no live price

SEA

★ best

+600DraftKings

edge +32.0pp · implied 13.5%

Book	PHX	SEA	Best edge
DraftKings	-1050	+600★	+32.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SEA vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 85 high confidence

Points

Kahleah CopperPHX
20.2± 8.1high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
16.6± 8.6high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
15.3± 7.0high

Rebounds

Dominique MalongaSEA
9.5± 3.3high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
7.5± 2.7high
DeWanna BonnerPHX
7.0± 2.1high

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.3± 3.9high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
4.4± 2.5high
Jade MelbourneSEA
3.8± 1.0high

Blocks

Awa FamSEA
1.3± 0.7high
Dominique MalongaSEA
1.2± 1.2high
Natasha MackPHX
1.1± 0.9high

Steals

Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
1.7± 1.2high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
1.4± 1.3high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
1.3± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Phoenix MercurySeattle Storm

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Tempo82Liberty97Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop