MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Siri doubled to left, Walton scored, Madrigal to third. → win prob 73→84% LAA

BOT 5TH+5LAA

COL

24-38

LAA

23-39

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 988 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Bottom 51-02 outs

Pitcher· COL

K. Thompson

1.1 IP, 1 K, 0 ER

Batter· LAA

J. Adell

0-0

LastPitch 1 : Ball 1

Live · model leanBot 5thPolls every 30s

76.4%

LAA wins · current

Pre-game: 58.8% LAA

COL 3 · 8 LAA

LAA +5

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsLAA leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingLAABottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 84% WP
Siri · doubled to left, Walton scored, Madrigal to third.
SwingCOLTop 2nd Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 43% WP
Goodman · walked.

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 9.66

M. Lorenzen

2-7 · 7.22 ERA

W. Urena

2-4 · 2.44 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 9.0 · -0.5

LAA no-vig %

59.3%

open 59.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.6%

ensemble · LAA favored

Elo Static
58.5%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.0%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.5%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

99.0%

+40.5ppvs pre-game · LAA favored

Leverage

±2.3

pp · next play

low · 3/100

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+58.8pp

best edge · LAA · DraftKings

COL

no live price

LAA

★ best

—DraftKings

edge +58.8pp · implied 0.0%

Book	COL	LAA	Best edge
DraftKings	+1760	—★	+58.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

LAA vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.9± 4.2low
Jose SorianoLAA
6.5± 2.5low
Grayson RodriguezLAA
4.3± 1.3low

Hits

Troy JohnstonCOL
1.2± 0.7high
Jake McCarthyCOL
1.1± 1.2high
Willi CastroCOL
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.3± 2.4high
Jake McCarthyCOL
1.9± 2.4high
Zach NetoLAA
1.9± 2.6high

RBIs

Wade MecklerLAA
1.0± 2.0low
Vaughn GrissomLAA
0.9± 1.9high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
5.0± 4.3low
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.0± 3.7low
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.4± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

● Live

COL

Rockies

24-46

vs58.8%LAA

LAA★

Angels

25-43

COL 41.2%win prob58.8% LAA

LAA 1420 · COL 1384Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
J. McCarthy★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.7
SPRINT29.698
T. Freeman★RF	1-3	3	1	1	2	1	0	0	0.1
SPRINT27.148
T. Rumfield★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.3
H. Goodman★C	1-1	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	2.5
SPRINT27.148
T. Johnston★RF	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	1	0.3
SPRINT26.326
W. Castro★2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	2.7
S. Thompson★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	7.0
K. Karros★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.9
E. Julien★2B	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1.8
SPRINT26.225
Team	3-18	18	3	3	3	1	3	5	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

J. McCarthy★CF

0-3

0.7

T. Freeman★RF

1-3

0.1

T. Rumfield★1B

0-3

1.3

H. Goodman★C

1-1

2.5

T. Johnston★RF

1-2

0.3

W. Castro★2B

0-1

2.7

S. Thompson★RF

0-2

7.0

K. Karros★3B

0-2

0.9

E. Julien★2B

0-1

1.8

Team

3-18

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
M. Lorenzen★SP	3.1	10	8	8	2	5	1	32.1
K. ThompsonRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	7.1
Team	4.2	11	8	8	2	6	1	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

M. Lorenzen★SP

3.1

32.1

K. ThompsonRP

1.1

7.1

Team

4.2

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
J. Soler★DH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	2	2.7
M. Trout★CF	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	1.2
W. Meckler★LF	2-3	3	1	2	0	0	0	1	1.1
V. Grissom★2B	2-3	3	2	2	3	1	0	0	6.6
SPRINT26.632
O. Peraza★2B	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	1	4.2
D. Walton★3B	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	18.2
N. Madrigal★3B	3-3	3	1	3	0	0	0	0	15.5
J. Siri★LF	1-3	3	1	1	1	0	0	1	15.8
L. O'Hoppe★C	1-3	3	1	1	1	0	0	1	7.2
SPRINT27.251

Team	11-25	25	8	11	6	1	2	6	—

Batting

Analytics

Player