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    LAD 5@ARI 0
    -38.4pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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LAD logo
LAD
5
LiveTop 6th
ARI logo
ARI
0
Updated 11:27 PM ET
Live read

Tucker homered to right center (424 feet), Betts scored. → win prob 72→84% LAD

TOP 6TH+5LAD↑
LAD

LAD

39-22

5
0
ARI

ARI

32-28

MLB · At bat

Top 6·0-1·1 out

Pitcher· ARI

T. Clarke

0.1 IP, 1 K, 0 ER

Batter· LAD

A. Pages

1-3

LastPitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

Live · model leanTop 6thPolls every 30s

76.8%

LAD wins · current

Pre-game: 59.9% LAD

LAD 5 · 0 ARI

LAD +5

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6
away leadsARI leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ↑SwingLADTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
    +12pp→ 84% WP

    Tucker · homered to right center (424 feet), Betts scored.

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 5.98

S. Ohtani

5-2 · 0.82 ERA

vs

Z. Gallen

3-4 · 5.16 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ARI no-vig %

36.9%

open 36.9%

+2.0+1.0ARI SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL40.9%32.9%ARI NO-VIG %MODEL 40.1%Jun 2, 4 PMJun 3, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelEdge
● Live
LAD5

LAD★

Dodgers

45-26

vs59.9%LAD

ARI

Diamondbacks

33-32

ARI0
LAD 59.9%win prob40.1% ARI
LAD 1598 · ARI 1499Box score→

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 65-44
61%Last 30 · 323-204
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.13

CLV pp

Open price

+159

Close price

+158

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

37.0%

Line barely moved

MLB·Wed, Jun 3·Top 6th/Seriestied 1-1/VegasLAD -218
Updated 0s ago
Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1Z. GallenARI−18.9pp
  2. 2K. TuckerLAD+14.9pp
  3. 3M. BettsLAD+13.3pp

LAD · top performer

LAD
Kyle Tucker

Kyle Tucker

RF

3.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Gabriel Moreno

Gabriel Moreno

C

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks · live

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Top 6th
LAD39-22
5
0
ARI32-28
LAD39-22·ARI32-28
LAD

LAD

39-22

5
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
2-2212002010.0
SPRINT2744
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-331100004.1
SPRINT28.175
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-331120004.0
SPRINT24.74
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-3310000113.3
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
3-3313210014.9
SPRINT26.123
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-330110000.2
SPRINT27.354
W. SmithW. Smith★C
0-330000000.2
A. CallA. Call★LF
1-330100010.4
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
1-220100100.8
Team10-25255105132—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
5.010006010.0
SPRINT2744
Team5.0100060—
ARI

ARI

32-28

0
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-220000010.0
SPRINT26.838
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
0-220000001.5
SPRINT29.496
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
1-220100000.8
SPRINT26.428
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
0-220000012.7
SPRINT25.29
P. SmithP. Smith★1B
0-220000020.2
R. WaldschmidtR. Waldschmidt★CF
0-220000010.5
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
0-220000000.4
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
0-110000010.4
T. TroyT. Troy★LF
0-110000000.1
Team1-1616010006—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
Z. GallenZ. Gallen★SP
5.095421118.9
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
0.11001100.4
Team5.11054321—

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

1

5

Runs

0

0

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 1-1

Jun 2LADLAD1@ARIARI4
Jun 3LADLAD6@ARIARI5
Jun 4LADLAD@ARIARItoday
Jun 5LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming

Season series

LAD lead series 4-1

Mar 27ARIARI2@LADLAD8
Mar 28ARIARI4@LADLAD5
Mar 29ARIARI2@LADLAD3
Jun 2LADLAD1@ARIARI4
Jun 3LADLAD6@ARIARI5
Jun 4LADLAD@ARIARItoday
Jun 5LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Jul 11ARIARI@LADLADupcoming
Jul 12ARIARI@LADLADupcoming
Jul 12ARIARI@LADLADupcoming
Aug 8LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 9LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 9LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LADLAD-21869%
ARIARI+17836%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
LADLADSP
S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

#17 · 5-2

ERA

0.82

K

61

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/28vsCOLCOL6.0 IP · 1 ER · 7 KW(5-2)
5/21@SDSD5.0 IP · 0 ER · 4 KW(4-2)
5/14vsSFSF7.0 IP · 0 ER · 8 KW(3-2)
VS
ARIARISP
Z. Gallen

Z. Gallen

#23 · 3-4

ERA

5.16

K

42

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/30@SEASEA5.0 IP · 5 ER · 2 K-
5/24vsCOLCOL5.1 IP · 3 ER · 6 KW(3-4)
5/19vsSFSF6.0 IP · 2 ER · 5 KW(2-4)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
LADLAD4L · 4R · 1S
  1. 1

    S. Ohtani

    P · #17

    L
  2. 2

    A. Pages

    CF · #44

    R
  3. 3

    F. Freeman

    1B · #5

    L
  4. 4

    M. Betts

    SS · #50

    R
  5. 5

    K. Tucker

    RF · #23

    L
  6. 6

    M. Muncy

    3B · #13

    L
  7. 7

    W. Smith

    C · #16

    R
  8. 8

    A. Call

    LF · #12

    R
  9. 9

    A. Freeland

    2B · #76

    B
ARIARI2L · 5R · 2S
  1. 1

    G. Perdomo

    SS · #2

    B
  2. 2

    C. Carroll

    RF · #7

    L
  3. 3

    G. Moreno

    C · #14

    R
  4. 4

    N. Arenado

    3B · #28

    R
  5. 5

    P. Smith

    DH · #26

    L
  6. 6

    R. Waldschmidt

    CF · #15

    R
  7. 7

    I. Vargas

    2B · #6

    B
  8. 8

    J. Fernandez

    1B · #11

    R
  9. 9

    T. Troy

    LF · #9

    R

Live · top performers so far

Top 6th
Game flowLAD ↔ ARI
Just happened

Pitch · 1 : Strike 1 Foul

LADLAD
K. Tucker

K. Tucker

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 HR · 3.000 OPS

S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 1 H

On pace: 7 IP · 8 K · 0 ER

ARIARI
G. Moreno

G. Moreno

C

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

Z. Gallen

Z. Gallen

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 1 K · 4 ER · 9 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 1 K · 6 ER

How it's going

LAD lead ARI 5-0 (Top 6th).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 84% WP

Tucker · homered to right center (424 feet), Betts scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456R
LAD0230005
ARI00000—0

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

5

Runs

0

10

Hits

1

0

Errors

1

14

TB

2

1

HR

0

3

BB

0

2

K

6

12

LOB

1

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 8.5·LAD -218/ARI +178

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Win probability

ARI vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6

Period scoring

LAD won 2 · ARI won 0

0
0

Inn 1

2
0

Inn 2

Tucker 2

3
0

Inn 3

Freeman 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0

Inn 6

LAD
ARI

Play-by-play · 341 plays

period
event
player
  1. T6

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  2. T6

    Taylor Clarke pitches to Andy Pages

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  3. T6

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  4. T6

    Ohtani singled to right, Freeland to second.

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  5. T6

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  6. T6

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  7. T6

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  8. T6

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  9. T6

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  10. T6

    Taylor Clarke pitches to Shohei Ohtani

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  11. T6

    ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  12. T6

    Freeland walked.

    ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  13. T6

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  14. T6

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  15. T6

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  16. T6

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  17. T6

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  18. T6

    Taylor Clarke pitches to Alex Freeland

    ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  19. T6

    ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  20. T6

    Call struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  21. T6

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  22. T6

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  23. T6

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  24. T6

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  25. T6

    Taylor Clarke pitches to Alex Call

    ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  26. T6

    Clarke relieved Gallen

    ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  27. T6

    Top of the 6th inning

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  28. End 5t

    End of the 5th inning

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  29. B5

    ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

  30. B5

    Vargas flied out to left.

    ·

    LAD 5·ARI 0

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

1.0%

-38.4ppvs pre-game · LAD favored

Leverage

±2.4

pp · next play

low · 3/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Recent pitches · last 8

ESPN PBP · live
  1. BallCH 90#5
  2. BallFC 94#1
  3. BallCH 91#2
  4. Foul BallFC 95#3
  5. BallCH 90#4
  6. SingleFC 94#5
  7. Foul BallFC 94#1
  8. BallSI 96#2

Player projections

ARI vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    6.3± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.6± 3.7low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.3± 1.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.7± 2.5high
  • Ketel MarteARI
    2.3± 2.5high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.8± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.3± 3.3low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.0± 2.7low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    2.9± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.0%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    39.4%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    34.9%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    39.4%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 988 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jun 1, 26sim 100
    191
    29(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 97
    85
    16(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jun 2, 26sim 94
    196
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 93
    85
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 31, 26sim 91
    82
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 31, 26sim 90
    154
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs