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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6LAD
NYM

NYM

7-12

2
8
LAD

LAD

14-4

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
50,909 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

LAD no-vig %

63.1%

open 63.1%

-1.0-2.0LAD SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL67.1%59.1%LAD NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

NYM 2 · LAD 8 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +19pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0000100012
LAD020001058

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 1, 26sim 95
    12
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 94
    14
    10(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 94
    284
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 93
    11
    10(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 93
    283
    30(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 92
    211
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-194

Close price

-194

Open no-vig

63.1%

Close no-vig

63.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Wed, Apr 15·Final/SeriesLAD win series 3-0/VegasLAD -194

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off New York Mets, 8–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAD -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
MJ Melendez

MJ Melendez

DH

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Teoscar Hernandez

Teoscar Hernandez

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
NYM7-12
2
8
LAD14-4
NYM7-12·LAD14-4
NYM

NYM

7-12

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
0-44000002
SPRINT26.941
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
0-44000002
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
0-44000002
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT25.716
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
0-22000011
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
1-44110001
SPRINT28.586
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
1-33011011
SPRINT28.175
M. MelendezM. Melendez★DH
2-44021002
SPRINT26.941
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
0-33000002
Team5-32322520214
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. HolmesC. Holmes★SP
5.0422141
T. MyersT. MyersRP
2.0311021
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
0.1344111
A. WarrenA. WarrenRP
0.2211011
Team8.01288284
LAD

LAD

14-4

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-55111100
SPRINT26.123
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
2-44020010
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-55010000
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
2-44221100
SPRINT28.381
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-33100011
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
2-33120000
SPRINT28.175
D. RushingD. Rushing★C
2-44224102
SPRINT27.867
H. KimH. Kim★SS
1-44112103
SPRINT28.381
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
1-44010002
Team12-36368128428
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
6.02112100
SPRINT2744
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
1.0100010
T. ScottT. ScottRP
1.0000000
K. HurtK. HurtRP
1.0211030
Team9.05222140

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

12

2

Runs

8

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 3-0

Apr 14NYMNYM0@LADLAD4
Apr 15NYMNYM1@LADLAD2
Apr 16NYMNYM2@LADLAD8today

Season series

LAD lead series 3-0

Apr 14NYMNYM0@LADLAD4
Apr 15NYMNYM1@LADLAD2
Apr 16NYMNYM2@LADLAD8today
Jul 24LADLAD@NYMNYMupcoming
Jul 25LADLAD@NYMNYMupcoming
Jul 26LADLAD@NYMNYMupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYMNYM+15939%
LADLAD-19466%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 5th Inning

NYMNYM
M. Melendez

M. Melendez

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

C. Holmes

C. Holmes

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

LADLAD
T. Hernández

T. Hernández

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 10 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

LAD beat NYM 8-2.

Win probability

LAD vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+13pp→ 87% WP

Kim · homered to right center (372 feet), Rushing scored.

NYMTop 5th Inning · 1-2
+15pp→ 34% WP

Melendez · hit a ground rule double, Benge scored, Semien to third.

LADBottom 6th Inning · 1-3
+8pp→ 89% WP

T. Hern · ández homered to right center (370 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0000100012
LAD02000105—8

Period scoring

NYM won 1 · LAD won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Kim 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Melendez 1

0
1

Inn 6

Hern 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
5

Inn 8

Rushing 4

1

Inn 9

Semien 1

NYM
LAD

Play-by-play · 555 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    NYM 2·LAD 8

  2. T9

    Melendez struck out swinging.

    · ·

    NYM 2·LAD 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 2·LAD 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 2·LAD 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 2·LAD 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 2·LAD 8

  7. T9

    Kyle Hurt pitches to MJ Melendez

    · ·

    NYM 2·LAD 8

  8. T9

    · ·

    NYM 2·LAD 8

  9. T9

    Semien singled to center, Bichette scored, Alvarez to second.

    · ·

    NYM 2·LAD 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 2·LAD 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 1·LAD 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 1·LAD 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 1·LAD 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 1·LAD 8

  15. T9

    Kyle Hurt pitches to Marcus Semien

    · ·

    NYM 2·LAD 8

  16. T9

    · ·

    NYM 1·LAD 8

  17. T9

    Benge struck out swinging.

    · ·

    NYM 1·LAD 8

  18. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 1·LAD 8

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    NYM 1·LAD 8

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 1·LAD 8

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 1·LAD 8

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 1·LAD 8

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 1·LAD 8

  24. T9

    Kyle Hurt pitches to Carson Benge

    · ·

    NYM 1·LAD 8

  25. T9

    · ·

    NYM 1·LAD 8

  26. T9

    Alvarez hit by pitch, Bichette to second.

    · ·

    NYM 1·LAD 8

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 1·LAD 8

  28. T9

    Kyle Hurt pitches to Francisco Alvarez

    · ·

    NYM 1·LAD 8

  29. T9

    ·

    NYM 1·LAD 8

  30. T9

    Bichette singled to left.

    ·

    NYM 1·LAD 8

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

2

Runs

8

5

Hits

12

0

Errors

0

8

TB

26

0

HR

4

2

BB

2

14

K

8

13

LOB

12

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 7.5·NYM +159/LAD -194

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 17 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Carson BengeNYM · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Hyeseong KimLAD · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

LAD vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

117

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.8± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.1± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    0.7± 1.5high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

73.8%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    69.0%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    70.8%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    69.5%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.76 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.