MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

ARI

31-25

PregameSat, 10:10 PM EDT

SEA

29-29

ATS/SEA -1.5O/U/7ML/SEA-163

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

95 total idx

T-Mobile Park run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

8-2

ARI +2.0 vs SEA +1.9 margin

ARI brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 970 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

Line movement

200 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

SEA no-vig %

59.3%

open 59.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Ryne Nelson

SP · #19

2-3

W-L

4.65

ERA

1.18

WHIP

60.0

Last 3 starts

vsCOLW(2-3)8.0 IP1 ER3 K

vsSF-7.0 IP3 ER3 K

@TEX-7.0 IP3 ER8 K

Home starter

Bryan Woo

SP · #22

4-3

W-L

3.82

ERA

1.04

WHIP

63.2

Last 3 starts

@KCL(4-3)4.2 IP4 ER4 K

vsCHWW(4-2)6.0 IP0 ER8 K

@HOUW(3-2)6.0 IP2 ER9 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 7

Money+135 / -163

Model edge

Win prob50% / 50%

LeanTossup

ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

SeriesSEA leads series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Pick a side.

Even matchup per the model — pick a side and we'll send you to the book.

+135Bet ARI ML↗+135Bet ARI ML↗

-163Bet SEA ML↗-163Bet SEA ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 7Bet the total↗O/U 7Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

SEA vs ARI.

SEA enters on a 4-game win streak; ARI is 8-2 over its last 10.

50.4%

model · SEA win prob

Recent form

SEA7–3+1.9
ARI8–2+2.0

Situational

SEA1d restB2B
ARI1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. SEA has 0 straight road games; ARI has 4.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.4 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.4pp

Players to watch

Ketel MarteARI
3.1total bases · ±1.9
Ketel Marte · 3.1 TB · last-10 3.9 vs season 1.9.
Corbin CarrollARI
2.6total bases · ±2.9
Corbin Carroll · 2.6 TB · last-10 3 vs season 2.
Julio RodriguezSEA
2.0total bases · ±1.8
Julio Rodriguez · 2 TB · last-10 2.2 vs season 1.8.

Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1

SEA is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-05-29ARI @ SEA6–7

Line move

open -163→-163flat

The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.4%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
52.3%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.2%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.4%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.74 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+135

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved

Player projections

SEA vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts