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    ARI 1@SEA 1
    -6.8pppeak
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THE ONE Analytics
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ARI logo
ARI
1
LiveMid 6th
SEA logo
SEA
1
Updated 5:52 PM ET
Live read

Arenado struck out swinging. → win prob 30→39% ARI

MID 6THTied
ARI

ARI

31-26

1
1
SEA

SEA

30-29

MLB · At bat

Mid 6·0-0·0 outs

Pitcher

—

Batter

—

LastMiddle of the 6th inning

Live · model leanMid 6thPolls every 30s

51.1%

SEA wins · current

Pre-game: 52.8% SEA

ARI 1 · 1 SEA

Tied

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6
away leadsSEA leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ↑SwingSEATop 6th Inning · 0-1
    +15pp→ 70% WP

    Perdomo · grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Carroll to third, Marte out at home.

  • ↑SwingARITop 3rd Inning · 0-1
    +10pp→ 33% WP

    Tawa · struck out swinging.

  • ↑SwingSEABottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
    +11pp→ 68% WP

    Young · homered to right (389 feet).

  • ↺Lead flipARITop 2nd Inning · 0-0
    +7pp→ 55% WP

    Vargas · singled to right, Waldschmidt to third.

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.50

M. Kelly

5-3 · 5.25 ERA

vs

B. Miller

1-0 · 2.25 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SEA no-vig %

58.3%

open 58.3%

+0.5-2.0SEA SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL62.3%54.3%SEA NO-VIG %May 30, 5 PMMay 31, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelTossup
● Live
ARI0

ARI

Diamondbacks

32-28

vs52.8%SEA

SEA★

Mariners

32-36

SEA1
ARI 47.2%win prob52.8% SEA
SEA 1508 · ARI 1508Box score→

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

46.7%

-6.8ppvs pre-game · ARI favored

Calibrated · at ~46% reads, home has won 39% (216)

Leverage

±11.0

pp · next play

peak · 82/100

Tied · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

62%Last 7 · 70-43
62%Last 30 · 331-204
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+14.0pp

best edge · ARI · DraftKings

ARI

★ best
+183DraftKings

edge +14.0pp · implied 33.2%

SEA

no live price

BookARISEABest edge
DraftKings+183★-247+14.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+129

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved

MLB·Sun, May 31·Mid 6th/SeriesSEA leads series 2-0/VegasSEA -155
Updated 0s ago
Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1M. KellyARI−15.5pp
  2. 2L. CastilloSEA−11.2pp
  3. 3C. YoungSEA+11.0pp

ARI · top performer

ARI
Ildemaro Vargas

Ildemaro Vargas

1B

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Cole Young

Cole Young

2B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Seattle Mariners · live

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Mid 6thTied
ARI31-26
1
1
SEA30-29
ARI31-26·SEA30-29
ARI

ARI

31-26

1
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 Batting
Player
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
0-22000010
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-33110001
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-33000000
SPRINT26.838
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
0-33000003
SPRINT25.29
R. WaldschmidtR. Waldschmidt★CF
0-11000011
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
1-22010000
SPRINT26.941
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
0-22000000
A. GarciaA. Garcia★C
0-22000001
T. TawaT. Tawa★LF
0-22000001
Team2-2020120027
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 Pitching
Player
M. KellyM. Kelly★SP
5.0611211
Team5.0611211
SEA

SEA

30-29

1
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 Batting
Player
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-22010011
SPRINT25.513
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-33000000
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-22000000
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-33010000
SPRINT26.941
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
1-22010000
SPRINT28.175
C. YoungC. Young★2B
1-33111100
SPRINT27.662
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-11000010
J. PeredaJ. Pereda★C
1-22010000
C. EmersonC. Emerson★3B
1-22010000
Team6-2020161121
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 Pitching
Player
B. MillerB. Miller★SP
5.0100160
L. CastilloL. CastilloSP
1.0111110
Team6.0211270

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • M. Kelly
    82 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      27%·91.4 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      26%·88.3 mph·8% whiff
    • FC
      16%·91.2 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      15%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·87.1 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      7%·83.3 mph·25% whiff

SEA

  • B. Miller
    71 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      58%·96.0 mph·21% whiff
    • SL
      18%·88.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      14%·85.2 mph·29% whiff
    • KC
      7%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      3%·85.1 mph·100% whiff
  • L. Castillo
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      58%·96.3 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      21%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·88.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

6

1

Runs

1

1

Errors

0

Current series

SEA leads series 2-0

May 30ARIARI6@SEASEA7
May 31ARIARI1@SEASEA5
May 31ARIARI@SEASEAtoday

Season series

SEA leads series 2-0

May 30ARIARI6@SEASEA7
May 31ARIARI1@SEASEA5
May 31ARIARI@SEASEAtoday

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.3h

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ARIARI+12844%
SEASEA-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
ARIARISP
M. Kelly

M. Kelly

#29 · 5-3

ERA

5.25

K

31

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/25@SFSF7.0 IP · 2 ER · 4 KW(5-3)
5/20vsSFSF6.0 IP · 3 ER · 4 KW(4-3)
5/16@COLCOL9.0 IP · 1 ER · 3 KW(3-3)
VS
SEASEASP
B. Miller

B. Miller

#50 · 1-0

ERA

2.25

K

14

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/26@ATHATH5.0 IP · 2 ER · 4 KW(1-0)
5/20vsCHWCHW5.2 IP · 0 ER · 7 K-
5/14@HOUHOU5.1 IP · 2 ER · 3 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
ARIARI1L · 5R · 3S
  1. 1

    K. Marte

    DH · #4

    B
  2. 2

    C. Carroll

    RF · #7

    L
  3. 3

    G. Perdomo

    SS · #2

    B
  4. 4

    N. Arenado

    3B · #28

    R
  5. 5

    R. Waldschmidt

    CF · #15

    R
  6. 6

    I. Vargas

    2B · #6

    B
  7. 7

    J. Fernandez

    1B · #11

    R
  8. 8

    A. Garcia

    C · #35

    R
  9. 9

    T. Tawa

    LF · #13

    R
SEASEA6L · 3R
  1. 1

    J.P. Crawford

    SS · #3

    L
  2. 2

    J. Rodriguez

    CF · #44

    R
  3. 3

    J. Naylor

    1B · #12

    L
  4. 4

    R. Arozarena

    LF · #56

    R
  5. 5

    L. Raley

    RF · #20

    L
  6. 6

    C. Young

    2B · #2

    L
  7. 7

    D. Canzone

    DH · #8

    L
  8. 8

    J. Pereda

    C · #5

    R
  9. 9

    C. Emerson

    3B · #4

    L

Live · top performers so far

Mid 6th
Game flowARI ↔ SEA

Recent swing: 15pp · Top 6th Inning

Just happened

Middle of the 6th inning

ARIARI
I. Vargas

I. Vargas

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

M. Kelly

M. Kelly

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 1 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 1 K · 1 ER

SEASEA
C. Young

C. Young

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

B. Miller

B. Miller

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 8 K · 0 ER

How it's going

Tied 1-1 · Mid 6th.

Win probability

SEA vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 68% WP

Young · homered to right (389 feet).

ARITop 3rd Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 33% WP

Tawa · struck out swinging.

SEATop 6th Inning · 0-1
+15pp→ 70% WP

Perdomo · grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Carroll to third, Marte out at home.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456R
ARI0000011
SEA01000—1

Period scoring

ARI won 0 · SEA won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Young 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1

Inn 6

Arenado 1

ARI
SEA

Play-by-play · 335 plays

period
event
player
  1. M6

    Middle of the 6th inning

    ARI 1·SEA 1

  2. T6

    · ·

    ARI 1·SEA 1

  3. T6

    Arenado struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 1·SEA 1

    −9pp

  4. T6

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ARI 1·SEA 1

  5. T6

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ARI 1·SEA 1

  6. T6

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 1·SEA 1

  7. T6

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ARI 1·SEA 1

  8. T6

    Carroll scored on Castillo wild pitch, Perdomo to second on wild pitch by Castillo.

    · ·

    ARI 1·SEA 1

  9. T6

    Carroll scored on Castillo wild pitch, Perdomo to second on wild pitch by Castillo.

    · ·

    ARI 1·SEA 1

  10. T6

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 0·SEA 1

  11. T6

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 0·SEA 1

  12. T6

    Luis Castillo pitches to Nolan Arenado

    · ·

    ARI 1·SEA 1

  13. T6

    · ·

    ARI 0·SEA 1

  14. T6

    Perdomo grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Carroll to third, Marte out at home.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 0·SEA 1

    +16pp

  15. T6

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 0·SEA 1

  16. T6

    Luis Castillo pitches to Geraldo Perdomo

    · ·

    ARI 0·SEA 1

  17. T6

    · ·

    ARI 0·SEA 1

  18. T6

    Carroll doubled to center, Marte to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 0·SEA 1

    −13pp

  19. T6

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 0·SEA 1

  20. T6

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 0·SEA 1

  21. T6

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 0·SEA 1

  22. T6

    Luis Castillo pitches to Corbin Carroll

    · ·

    ARI 0·SEA 1

  23. T6

    ·

    ARI 0·SEA 1

  24. T6

    Marte walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ARI 0·SEA 1

    −6pp

  25. T6

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    ARI 0·SEA 1

  26. T6

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 0·SEA 1

  27. T6

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ARI 0·SEA 1

  28. T6

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    ARI 0·SEA 1

  29. T6

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 0·SEA 1

  30. T6

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 0·SEA 1

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

1

Runs

1

2

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

3

TB

9

0

HR

1

2

BB

2

7

K

1

7

LOB

11

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 7.5·ARI +128/SEA -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175

Recent pitches · last 8

ESPN PBP · live
  1. DoubleFF 95#3
  2. Batters Fielders Choice - Runner OutSI 95#1
  3. Strike Looking - OverturnedSI 97#1
  4. BallSL 89#2
  5. BallSL 87#3
  6. Foul BallSI 96#4
  7. BallSL 89#5
  8. Strike SwingingFF 97#6

Player projections

SEA vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low
  • Bryan WooSEA
    5.4± 4.4low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.4high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    2.7± 2.5high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.6± 2.4high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.0± 1.3high
  • Geraldo PerdomoARI
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Ildemaro VargasARI
    0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    2.9± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.3%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    53.5%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.1%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.4%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.72 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 986 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 24, 26sim 97
    240
    17(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 95
    301
    5(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 30, 26sim 95
    291
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 95
    42
    12(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 93
    240
    17(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 93
    172
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs