Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHC at LAD?

The model favors LAD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 25, 2026

FINAL+8LAD

CHC

17-10

412

LAD

18-9

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

53,397 attended

Line movement

49 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

LAD no-vig %

54.3%

open 54.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.2%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
58.8%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.1%
P(LAD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.4%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-132

Close price

-132

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHC at LAD?: The model favors LAD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

LAD vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.4± 3.0low
Emmet SheehanLAD
5.7± 3.9low
Roki SasakiLAD
5.5± 3.1low

Hits

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.6± 1.1high
Tommy EdmanLAD
1.4± 1.8low
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
3.4± 2.5high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.4± 2.1high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.6high

RBIs

Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.8± 1.3high
Carson KellyCHC
0.7± 1.9high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Edward CabreraCHC
3.4± 2.6low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.1± 3.4medium
Colin ReaCHC
2.9± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

LAD

.738

OPS

.718

▶

.779

.337

OBP

.319

▶

.343

4.75

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.15

4.28

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.43

1.24

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.10

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

CHC 4 · LAD 12 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	4
LAD	0	0	2	6	0	4	0	0	12

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Hoerner2B	.309	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
M. Busch1B	.208	5	0	1	1	0	0	1
A. Bregman3B	.259	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. HappLF	.245	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
S. SuzukiRF	.327	4	1	3	1	1	0	0
M. BallesterosDH	.397	3	1	1	1	1	1	0
D. SwansonSS	.200	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.235	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
M. AmayaC	.234	3	2	1	1	1	0	0
N. Lopez2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. ConfortoDH	.333	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. ShawRF	.300	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	4	9	4	3	2	11

Player

.309

.208

.259

.245

.327

.397

.200

.235

.234

.000

.333

.300

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. ReaSP	3.1	6	6	6	4	4	92
J. AssadSP	2.1	7	6	6	2	2	70
V. VelasquezSP	2.1	1	0	0	0	1	31
Team	8.0	14	12	12	6	7	193

Player

C. ReaSP

3.1

J. AssadSP

2.1

V. VelasquezSP

2.1

Team

8.0

193

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.240	3	2	1	0	0	2	0
F. Freeman1B	.280	5	1	1	1	0	0	2
M. Muncy3B	.300	1	1	1	2	1	2	0
K. TuckerRF	.235	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. HernándezLF	.247	3	2	2	2	0	1	0
D. RushingC	.400	4	1	1	1	0	1	2
A. PagesCF	.337	5	1	2	3	0	0	0
H. KimSS	.357	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
A. Freeland2B	.239	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
S. Espinal3B	.250	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. CallLF	.280	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	12	14	11	1	6	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. SasakiSP	5.0	7	4	4	1	5	99
J. DreyerRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	19
W. KleinRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	21
K. HurtRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	10
J. EderRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	9	4	4	2	11	162

Team

CHC

LAD

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

LAD vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAD vs CHC.

3 sub-models, blended.