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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TOR
TOR

TOR

29-29

6
5
BAL

BAL

26-32

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
25,494 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

BAL no-vig %

51.1%

open 51.1%

+2.0+1.0BAL SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL55.1%47.1%BAL NO-VIG %May 29, 2 AMMay 29, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 6 · BAL 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0000004206
BAL0021200005

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+35.7pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

TOR

★ best
+270DraftKings

edge +35.7pp · implied 25.4%

BAL

no live price

BookTORBALBest edge
DraftKings+270★-385+35.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 21, 26sim 95
    15
    7(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 95
    129
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 94
    95
    23(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 94
    247
    18(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 94
    96
    2(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 94
    287
    21(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, May 29·Final/SeriesTOR leads series 2-0/VegasBAL -126

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays went into Baltimore Orioles and beat them, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

BAL +1.5 cashed (TOR won by 1). Total cleared the 9.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Kazuma Okamoto

Kazuma Okamoto

3B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Samuel Basallo

Samuel Basallo

C

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR29-29
6
5
BAL26-32
TOR29-29·BAL26-32
TOR

TOR

29-29

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-44110010
SPRINT25.920
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-44110000
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
2-44122001
SPRINT26.123
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
1-44112101
SPRINT26.123
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
2-44120000
SPRINT26.838
McadooMcadoo★2B
1-44112101
M. StrawM. Straw★RF
0-22000000
Y. PinangoY. Pinango★LF
0-44000002
B. ValenzuelaB. Valenzuela★C
1-44010000
N. LukesN. LukesRF
1-22010000
Team10-36366106215
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. MackoA. Macko★RP
1.2300010
A. VothA. VothRP
3.1555403
C. SeaboldC. SeaboldRP
1.2000010
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
1.1000010
B. FisherB. FisherRP
1.0000000
Team9.0855433
BAL

BAL

26-32

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-44110010
SPRINT27.457
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-44000010
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
0-44001011
SPRINT26.632
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-44111101
SPRINT25.29
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
2-33122100
SPRINT25.310
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
1-33010010
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
1-33010000
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-33000000
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
2-44221100
J. JacksonJ. Jackson2B
0-11000000
B. AlexanderB. Alexander3B
0-11000001
Team8-3434585343
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. RogersT. Rogers★SP
6.0644132
T. WellsT. WellsRP
1.0000010
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
0.1322000
K. AkinK. AkinRP
0.2000000
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0100010
Team9.01066152

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • A. Voth
    70 pitches·21% CSW
    • CU
      26%·73.9 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      21%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·87.2 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      17%·78.9 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      16%·91.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      3%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Macko
    30 pitches·23% CSW
    • SL
      43%·85.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·84.4 mph·100% whiff
    • KC
      10%·78.4 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      45%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      35%·81.2 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      20%·87.2 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Seabold
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      33%·93.5 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      33%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      53%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      40%·80.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      7%·93.8 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • T. Rogers
    84 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      44%·93.3 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      18%·85.9 mph·44% whiff
    • ST
      18%·78.4 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      12%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • CH
      38%·84.9 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      23%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·84.8 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Cano
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      55%·93.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      27%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      18%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Akin
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • CH
      36%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      36%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·87.5 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Wells
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      33%·89.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      17%·85.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

8

6

Runs

5

2

Errors

0

Current series

TOR leads series 2-0

May 28TORTOR2@BALBAL1
May 29TORTOR6@BALBAL5today
May 30TORTOR@BALBALupcoming
May 31TORTOR@BALBALupcoming

Season series

TOR leads series 2-0

May 28TORTOR2@BALBAL1
May 29TORTOR6@BALBAL5today
May 30TORTOR@BALBALupcoming
May 31TORTOR@BALBALupcoming
Jun 5BALBAL@TORTORupcoming
Jun 6BALBAL@TORTORupcoming
Jun 7BALBAL@TORTORupcoming
Sep 11BALBAL@TORTORupcoming
Sep 12BALBAL@TORTORupcoming
Sep 13BALBAL@TORTORupcoming
Sep 21TORTOR@BALBALupcoming
Sep 22TORTOR@BALBALupcoming
Sep 23TORTOR@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TORTOR+10549%
BALBAL-12656%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 34pp · Top 8th Inning

TORTOR
K. Okamoto

K. Okamoto

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

A. Voth

A. Voth

RP

Top reliever

3.1 IP · 5 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

BALBAL
S. Basallo

S. Basallo

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

T. Rogers

T. Rogers

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TOR beat BAL 6-5. Guerrero Jr.'s play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (34pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BAL vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORTop 7th Inning · 4-5
+13pp→ 27% WP

Mcadoo · homered to right center (369 feet), Varsho scored.

TORTop 8th Inning · 6-5
+34pp→ 80% WP

Guerrero Jr. · doubled to left, Clement scored and Springer scored.

TORBottom 9th Inning · 6-5
+13pp→ 100% WP

Rutschman · grounded out to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0000004206
BAL0021200005

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · BAL won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Rutschman 1

0
1

Inn 4

Holliday 1

0
2

Inn 5

Alonso 1

0
0

Inn 6

4
0

Inn 7

Okamoto 2

2
0

Inn 8

Jr. 2

0
0

Inn 9

TOR
BAL

Play-by-play · 561 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  2. B9

    · ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  3. B9

    Rutschman grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

    −13pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  7. B9

    Braydon Fisher pitches to Adley Rutschman

    · ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  8. B9

    ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  9. B9

    Henderson safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Clement.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

    +8pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  14. B9

    Braydon Fisher pitches to Gunnar Henderson

    ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  15. B9

    ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  16. B9

    Ward flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

    −8pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  20. B9

    Braydon Fisher pitches to Taylor Ward

    ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  21. B9

    ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  22. B9

    Holliday grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

    −8pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  28. B9

    Braydon Fisher pitches to Jackson Holliday

    · ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  29. B9

    Fisher relieved Fluharty

    ·

    TOR 6·BAL 5

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TOR 6·BAL 5

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

6

Runs

5

10

Hits

8

2

Errors

0

22

TB

17

2

HR

3

1

BB

4

5

K

3

10

LOB

14

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 9.5·TOR +105/BAL -126

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

BAL vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.7± 1.9high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    49.8%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.3%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.5%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.