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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3TOR
PIT

PIT

26-26

2
5
TOR

TOR

25-27

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
41,813 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TOR no-vig %

41.7%

open 42.8% · -1.1

+2.0+1.0TOR SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL46.8%37.7%TOR NO-VIG %May 22, 8 PMMay 23, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

PIT 2 · TOR 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT0000010102
TOR100003105

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+35.3pp

best edge · PIT · DraftKings

PIT

★ best
+1120DraftKings

edge +35.3pp · implied 15.2%

TOR

no live price

BookPITTORBest edge
DraftKings+1120★+119+35.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 22, 26sim 99
    232
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 98
    262
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 98
    184
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 28, 26sim 97
    185
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 96
    121
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 95
    189
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, May 23·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 2-1/VegasPIT -144

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off Pittsburgh Pirates, 5–2.

TOR +1.5 cashed (PIT lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds

LF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
George Springer

George Springer

DH

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT26-26
2
5
TOR25-27
PIT26-26·TOR25-27
PIT

PIT

26-26

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
0-44000001
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
0-33100010
SPRINT29.899
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
2-33120011
SPRINT27.969
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
1-44012002
SPRINT25.614
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-33010000
SPRINT24.85
J. GarciaJ. Garcia★RF
1-33010011
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
0-22000001
E. ValdezE. Valdez★OF
0-22000001
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-33000000
B. LoweB. Lowe2B
0-22000002
O. CruzO. CruzCF
0-22000002
E. RodriguezE. RodriguezC
0-11000001
Team5-32322520312
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. SkenesP. Skenes★SP
5.0944121
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
1.2211011
E. SiskE. SiskRP
1.1000010
Team8.01155142
TOR

TOR

25-27

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
2-44121101
SPRINT25.920
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-33000010
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
2-44120000
SPRINT26.123
Y. PinangoY. Pinango★LF
2-33120000
SPRINT2622
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
2-33121000
SPRINT25.818
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-44011001
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-33010000
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
0-33000001
T. HeinemanT. Heineman★C
1-33111101
SPRINT25.513
D. SchneiderD. SchneiderLF
0-11000000
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-11000000
Team11-32325114214
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. CorbinP. Corbin★SP
6.0511070
B. FisherB. FisherRP
1.0000120
Y. RodriguezY. RodriguezRP
0.2010200
A. MackoA. MackoRP
0.1000000
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0000030
Team9.05213120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • P. Skenes
    98 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      30%·97.0 mph·18% whiff
    • SI
      23%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·84.3 mph·13% whiff
    • FS
      15%·93.3 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      10%·89.0 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      4%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • ST
      47%·84.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      21%·85.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      16%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      16%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Sisk
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      44%·83.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      22%·77.2 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      11%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·80.6 mph·— whiff

TOR

  • P. Corbin
    84 pitches·27% CSW
    • CH
      25%·77.7 mph·44% whiff
    • SI
      25%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·86.1 mph·31% whiff
    • SL
      18%·78.1 mph·44% whiff
    • FF
      12%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Rodriguez
    20 pitches·10% CSW
    • SL
      45%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      20%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·96.0 mph·— whiff
  • B. Fisher
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • SL
      57%·88.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      36%·81.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      7%·94.9 mph·— whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • SL
      46%·86.9 mph·67% whiff
    • FS
      38%·89.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      15%·96.7 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Macko
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      50%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      40%·94.9 mph·25% whiff
    • KC
      10%·79.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

11

2

Runs

5

1

Errors

1

Current series

TOR wins series 2-1

May 22PITPIT2@TORTOR6
May 23PITPIT2@TORTOR5today
May 24PITPIT4@TORTOR1

Season series

TOR leads series 2-0

May 22PITPIT2@TORTOR6
May 23PITPIT2@TORTOR5today
May 24PITPIT4@TORTOR1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT-14459%
TORTOR+11946%

↗6· 4.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 6th Inning

PITPIT
B. Reynolds

B. Reynolds

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

P. Skenes

P. Skenes

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 9 H · 1 BB

TORTOR
G. Springer

G. Springer

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

P. Corbin

P. Corbin

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 5 H

How it ended

TOR beat PIT 5-2. Ozuna's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

TOR vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 53% WP

Springer · homered to left (396 feet).

PITTop 6th Inning · 1-1
+19pp→ 50% WP

Ozuna · doubled to right, Reynolds scored.

TORBottom 6th Inning · 1-2
+19pp→ 85% WP

Sánchez doubled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored, Pinango to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT0000010102
TOR10000310—5

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · TOR won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Springer 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
3

Inn 6

Ozuna 1

Clement 1

0
1

Inn 7

Heineman 1

1
0

Inn 8

Ozuna 1

0

Inn 9

PIT
TOR

Play-by-play · 534 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  2. T9

    Rodríguez struck out swinging.

    · ·

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  7. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Endy Rodriguez

    · ·

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  8. T9

    Rodríguez hit for Davis

    · ·

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  9. T9

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  10. T9

    Cruz struck out swinging.

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 5

    +0.8pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  16. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Oneil Cruz

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  17. T9

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  18. T9

    Lowe struck out swinging.

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 5

    +2pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  23. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Brandon Lowe

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  24. T9

    Hoffman relieved Macko

    ·

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  25. T9

    Okamoto at third base.

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  26. T9

    Clement at second base.

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  27. T9

    Straw in right field.

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  28. T9

    Schneider in left field.

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    PIT 2·TOR 5

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    PIT 2·TOR 5

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

2

Runs

5

5

Hits

11

1

Errors

1

6

TB

21

0

HR

2

3

BB

1

12

K

4

14

LOB

8

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 7.5·PIT -144/TOR +119

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.92

CLV pp

Open price

+123

Close price

+128

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

41.9%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Konnor GriffinPIT · SS
    SPRINT29.899
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

TOR vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Mitch KellerPIT
    2.5± 2.6low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.1%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    51.6%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.7%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.5%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.