MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

END 4TH+1STL

STL

24-17

ATH

21-20

Live · model leanEnd 4thPolls every 30s

55.5%

STL wins · current

Pre-game: 51.0% ATH

STL 1 · 0 ATH

STL +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 4

away leadsATH leads

Key moments · live

newest first

ClutchATHTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 44% WP
Scott II · struck out looking.
Lead flipSTLTop 4th Inning · 0-0
+14pp→ 52% WP
Gorman · singled to right.
Lead flipATHTop 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 56% WP
Herrera · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Wetherholt out at second.

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.69

M. Liberatore

2-1 · 4.07 ERA

J.T. Ginn

1-1 · 3.62 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATH spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

ATH no-vig %

57.2%

open 56.3% · +0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.3%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
51.0%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.5%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.5%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

66% confidence

Win prob · home

18.8%

-32.2ppvs pre-game · STL favored

Leverage

medium

1-point game · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Why we like STL.

STL's edge is mostly venue split plus model confidence. Travel burden is the main caution flag.

+5.4

pp edge · STL

-0.85

CLV pp

Pass

49.9%

±5.9pp band

Pass — model probability is at or below the coin flip line.

Edge

+6.3pp

+0.9pp post-cal

Kelly

—

no stake

Decimal

2.19

+4.2pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 5.4pp · STL over ATH

▲
Venue split66% conf
STL's venue form is 35.2pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.5pp
▼
Travel burden58% conf
STL is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
-1.1pp
▲
Model confidence82% conf
STL grades as a real model edge, not just noise.
+0.9pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
STL has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.6pp
▼
Line steam66% conf
The market moved 0.9pp away from STL since open.
-0.3pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+123

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Market faded the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.4pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

STL

★ best

+119DraftKings

edge +5.4pp · implied 43.6%

ATH

no live price

Book	STL	ATH	Best edge
DraftKings	+119★	-144	+5.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

ATH vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 62 high confidence

Strikeouts

Luis SeverinoATH
5.2± 2.8low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
4.9± 2.2low
Aaron CivaleATH
4.1± 1.8low

Hits

Shea LangeliersATH
1.6± 1.0high
Ivan HerreraSTL
1.2± 1.3high
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Shea LangeliersATH
3.2± 3.0high
Jordan WalkerSTL
2.2± 2.3high
Brent RookerATH
1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

Brent RookerATH
0.9± 1.4high
Shea LangeliersATH
0.9± 1.3high
Jordan WalkerSTL
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Jacob LopezATH
3.0± 2.3low
Dustin MaySTL
2.9± 3.2low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

Wed, May 13

STL

Cardinals

24-18

vs51.0%ATH

ATH★

Athletics

21-24

STL 49.0%win prob51.0% ATH

ATH 1491 · STL 1508Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
J. Wetherholt★2B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.560
I. Herrera★DH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Burleson★1B	2-2	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.513
J. Walker★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Gorman★3B	1-1	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
SPRINT257
M. Winn★SS	2-2	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT2872
N. Church★LF	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT28.586
P. Pages★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Scott II★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	7-16	16	1	7	1	0	1	3

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-2

0-2

2-2

0-2

1-1

2-2

1-2

0-1

0-2

Team

7-16

	Pitching
M. Liberatore★SP	4.0	5	0	0	0	3	0
Team	4.0	5	0	0	0	3	0

Pitching

Player

M. Liberatore★SP

4.0

Team

4.0

	Batting
S. Langeliers★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT28.586
N. Kurtz★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Thomas★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Rooker★DH	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.148
H. Bolte★RF	2-2	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. Heim★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Z. Gelof★CF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Hernaiz★3B	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.969
M. Stefanic★2B	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team	5-15	15	0	5	0	0	0	3

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI