Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at TOR?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Colorado Rockies vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 30, 2026

FINAL+9COL

COL

1-3

145

TOR

3-1

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

35,490 attended

Line movement

19 snapshots

TOR spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TOR no-vig %

71.3%

open 71.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

79.3%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
76.7%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
77.9%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
76.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-293

Close price

-293

Open no-vig

71.3%

Close no-vig

71.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at TOR?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

TOR vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
5.4± 2.1medium
Trey YesavageTOR
5.4± 1.8low

Hits

Jake McCarthyCOL
1.5± 0.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.3± 0.5high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Jake McCarthyCOL
2.5± 2.0high
TJ RumfieldCOL
2.3± 1.4high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.2± 2.4high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.7± 2.2medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.7± 2.9medium
Sean SullivanCOL
3.7± 5.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

TOR

.739

OPS

◀

.718

.702

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.311

4.60

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.06

5.49

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.15

1.51

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.33

7.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

COL 14 · TOR 5 (by 9)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +27pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
COL	0	0	1	1	0	7	0	4	1	14
TOR	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	1	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McCarthyCF	.071	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
H. GoodmanC	.375	4	2	2	1	0	1	2
W. Castro2B	.200	4	1	1	2	0	0	1
E. TovarSS	.333	6	2	3	3	0	0	1
T. Rumfield1B	.357	5	1	3	2	0	0	1
T. JohnstonRF	.333	5	1	2	2	1	0	1
J. BeckLF	.182	4	1	0	0	0	1	0
K. Karros3B	.286	4	1	1	0	0	1	2
E. Julien2B	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. DoyleCF	.143	3	2	2	0	0	0	0
B. SullivanC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. Ritter2B	.250	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. FulfordDH	.400	3	2	2	2	1	0	0
Team		45	14	17	13	2	4	10

Player

.071

.375

.200

.333

.357

.333

.182

.286

.143

.143

.000

.250

.400

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. SuganoSP	4.2	2	1	1	2	4	72
J. HillRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. DollanderSP	4.0	5	4	4	2	5	74
Team	9.0	7	5	5	4	9	147

Player

T. SuganoSP

4.2

J. HillRP

0.1

C. DollanderSP

4.0

Team

9.0

147

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.158	5	1	1	1	1	0	2
J. SanchezRF	.444	4	1	2	0	0	1	0
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.308	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. BargerRF	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. KirkC	.083	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. VarshoCF	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Okamoto3B	.333	3	1	1	1	1	1	2
E. Clement2B	.294	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. GimenezSS	.500	3	1	1	1	1	1	0
D. SchneiderLF	.250	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
N. LukesRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	5	7	5	4	4	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PonceSP	2.1	1	1	1	1	3	47
L. VarlandRP	1.1	2	1	0	0	3	30
S. MilesRP	1.2	3	3	3	1	2	41
B. LittleRP	0.2	4	4	4	1	1	30
T. RogersRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
T. HeinemanC	2.0	7	5	5	1	0	27
Team	9.0	17	14	13	4	10	185

Team

COL

TOR

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

TOR vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

TOR vs COL.

3 sub-models, blended.