Minnesota Lynx at Dallas Wings
MIN
12-3
DAL
9-6
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
innesota Lynx visit Dallas Wings Sunday at 6/28 - 2:00 PM EDT. MIN is rolling — 7-1 in their last 8. DAL is 5-3 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Season series
MIN leads series 2-0
MIN90@DAL86DAL76@MIN100MIN@DALtodayDAL@MINupcomingScouting report
MIN @ DAL
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
MIN -27.0
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
MIN
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
12-3
Record
9-6
#1
Conf rank
#4
+13.4
Pt diff
+4.9
W2
Streak
L1
9-1
Last 10
6-4
92.5
Power score
65.5
#2
Power rank
#6
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
50
FG %
46
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.9%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Olivia MilesMIN19.6± 7.7medium
- Paige BueckersDAL18.2± 8.8medium
- Natasha HowardMIN17.9± 6.5medium
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL11.8± 4.2medium
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 3.6medium
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.9± 1.9medium
Assists
- Paige BueckersDAL6.1± 4.0medium
- Olivia MilesMIN5.6± 2.8medium
- Jessica ShepardDAL5.1± 3.5medium
Blocks
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.4± 1.4medium
- Awak KuierDAL1.1± 1.2low
- Azzi FuddDAL1.1± 1.3medium
Steals
- Natasha HowardMIN2.0± 1.7medium
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.2medium
- Azzi FuddDAL1.6± 1.6medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
DAL
50.8%
FG%
44.4
45.7%
39.4%
3PT %
33.1
33.6%
92.6
PPG
85.3
88.1
22.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.4
13.7
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.5