MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3DET

DET

87-75

CLE

88-74

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

29,891 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.4%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
60.8%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.4%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Parker MessickCLE
5.8± 2.3low
Jack FlahertyDET
5.6± 3.5low

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.3± 1.6high
Gleyber TorresDET
1.3± 1.3high
Jose RamirezCLE
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.8± 4.4high
Jose RamirezCLE
2.0± 2.3high
Gleyber TorresDET
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
1.2± 1.8high
Kerry CarpenterDET
0.8± 1.0high
Gleyber TorresDET
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low
Framber ValdezDET
2.8± 2.6low
Joey CantilloCLE
2.7± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

CLE

.706

OPS

◀

.715

.689

.315

OBP

.319

.317

4.10

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.03

3.97

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.79

1.28

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

8.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 6 · CLE 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	0	0	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	6
CLE	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
G. Torres2B	.154	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. CarpenterRF	.400	2	1	1	1	0	3	0
W. PerezRF	.077	5	1	1	2	0	0	2
S. Torkelson1B	.182	5	0	1	1	0	0	2
R. GreeneLF	.364	5	0	2	1	0	0	0
D. DinglerC	.100	3	1	1	1	1	1	2
Z. McKinstry2B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. BaezSS	.455	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
P. MeadowsCF	.250	4	2	2	0	0	0	0
Team		36	6	10	6	1	5	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.154

.400

.077

.182

.364

.100

.000

.455

.250

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. FlahertySP	4.2	3	1	1	2	4	74
K. FinneganRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	27
T. HoltonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	7
T. KahnleRP	0.1	2	2	0	0	0	10
W. VestRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	22
Team	9.0	6	3	1	2	6	140

Player

4.2

1.1

1.0

0.1

1.2

Team

9.0

140

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. KwanCF	.167	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
G. ValeraLF	.286	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. Ramirez3B	.250	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
K. Manzardo1B	.091	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. DeLauterRF	.167	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
G. AriasSS	.200	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. NaylorC	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. KayfusLF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. RocchioSS	.222	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. SchneemannCF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	3	6	1	0	2	6

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. CecconiSP	2.1	2	1	1	1	3	47
T. HerrinRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	12
J. CantilloSP	2.2	2	1	1	2	3	44
E. SabrowskiRP	0.1	2	2	2	0	0	8
H. GaddisRP	0.1	3	2	2	1	0	10
M. FestaRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	15
J. JunisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
C. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
Team	9.0	10	6	6	5	9	154

Team

DET

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.