WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1WSH

TOR

7-6

8586

WSH

5-6

WNBAFri, Jun 12FinalSeriesWSH leads series 3-0VegasWSH -1.5

TOR · top performer

Marina Mabrey

G · #3

19.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WSH · top performer

Lauren Betts

C · #51

17.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 89pp · 4th Quarter · 0.5

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HarrisonF · #21	28	8	4-7	0-1	—	+9	6	3
L. JuskaiteF · #2	23	8	2-6	0-3	4-4	-9	0	0
B. SykesG · #20	31	20	7-14	1-2	5-6	-5	2	3
M. MabreyG · #3	28	27	9-15	5-10	4-4	-4	1	3
J. AllemandG · #22	26	9	4-5	1-2	—	+15	2	3
Bench
M. CondeF · #10	22	7	3-7	0-2	1-2	+7	6	4
T. KeyF · #7	15	2	1-2	—	—	-9	1	2
T. FagbenleC · #14	8	0	0-2	—	—	-6	3	1
K. NurseG · #11	3	0	0-1	—	—	-3	0	1
T. PouyeG · #32	17	4	1-5	0-2	2-2	0	0	3
Team		85	31-64	7-22	16-18		21	23
DNP: N. Sabally, K. Rice

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. OnyenwereF · #12	29	17	7-15	1-3	2-2	-7	8	1
A. DugalicF · #32	18	10	3-6	0-2	4-4	-2	6	0
S. AustinC · #0	32	12	3-6	0-1	6-7	+7	11	3
S. CitronG · #22	34	17	6-16	1-6	4-5	+1	5	3
G. AmooreG · #8	26	1	0-4	0-4	1-2	-15	0	7
Bench
L. BettsC · #51	21	18	8-9	—	2-2	+3	4	1
C. McMahonG · #23	23	9	4-6	0-1	1-2	+7	2	3
C. ProsperG · #18	3	0	—	—	—	-4	0	0
A. FlorezG · #2	14	2	0-3	0-1	2-2	+15	3	4
Team		86	31-65	2-18	22-26		39	22
DNP: K. Iriafen, R. Harmon, L. Olsen

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

31-64

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

31-65

FG %

7-22

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

2-18

16-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-26

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

WSH leads series 3-0

May 8

WSH68@

TOR65

Jun 12

TOR85@

WSH86today

Jul 14

WSH79@

TOR62

Aug 19

TOR@

WSHupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

169.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

TOR-10250%

WSH-11854%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

169.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat TOR 86-85. L. Betts led with 18 PTS, 4 REB, 1 AST. TOR outscored the other side 33-21 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

WSH vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 11 REB · 12 AST

GS 58

Bench(5)

13 PTS · 10 REB · 11 AST

GS 13

WSHstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 30 REB · 14 AST

GS 40

Bench(4)

29 PTS · 9 REB · 8 AST

GS 26

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR4th Quarter · 1:16 · 79-83

+17pp→ 24% WP

Sonia Citron · shooting foul

TOR4th Quarter · 31.6 · 83-84

+17pp→ 31% WP

Marina Mabrey · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isabelle Harrison assists)

WSH4th Quarter · 0.5 · 85-86

+89pp→ 98% WP

Sonia Citron · makes 15-foot two point shot (Lauren Betts assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	14	23	15	33	85
WSH	17	23	25	21	86

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · WSH won 2

Sykes 6

Betts 8

Sykes 12

Onyenwere 11

Mabrey 4

Amoore 12

Mabrey 18

Citron 6

TOR

WSH

Shooting comparison

TOR

WSH

48%

31-64

48%

31-65

32%

7-22

3PT

11%

2-18

89%

16-18

85%

22-26

Play-by-play · 417 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 85·WSH 86
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 85·WSH 86
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Tempo] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
TOR 85·WSH 86
+2pp
Q4·0.5
Sonia Citron makes 15-foot two point shot (Lauren Betts assists)BIG MOMENT
·
TOR 85·WSH 86
+89pp
Q4·2.1
Brittney Sykes vs. Lauren Betts (Sonia Citron gains possession)
· ·
TOR 85·WSH 84
+2pp
Q4·2.1
(00:02.1) [Tempo] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)BIG MOMENT
TOR 85·WSH 84
−37pp
Q4·11.1
Lauren Betts enters the game for Angela Dugalic
·
TOR 85·WSH 84
Q4·11.1
Mystics timeout
TOR 85·WSH 84
Q4·11.1
Brittney Sykes makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
TOR 85·WSH 84
−10pp
Q4·17.7
Cotie McMahon enters the game for Lauren Betts
·
TOR 83·WSH 84
Q4·17.7
Angela Dugalic enters the game for Georgia Amoore
·
TOR 83·WSH 84
Q4·17.7
Tempo Full timeout
TOR 83·WSH 84
Q4·17.7
Isabelle Harrison defensive rebound
TOR 83·WSH 84
−4pp
Q4·18.9
Sonia Citron misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
TOR 83·WSH 84
−10pp
Q4·30.9
Lauren Betts enters the game for Angela Dugalic
·
TOR 83·WSH 84
Q4·30.9
Mystics Full timeout
TOR 83·WSH 84
Q4·31.6
Marina Mabrey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isabelle Harrison assists)BIG MOMENT
·
TOR 83·WSH 84
−17pp
Q4·35.4
Tempo timeout
TOR 80·WSH 84
Q4·35.4
Julie Allemand defensive rebound
TOR 80·WSH 84
Q4·36.6
Georgia Amoore misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
TOR 80·WSH 84
−9pp
Q4·36.6
Georgia Amoore makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 80·WSH 84
+1pp
Q4·36.6
Brittney Sykes personal foulBIG MOMENT
TOR 80·WSH 83
+7pp
Q4·44.2
Angela Dugalic defensive rebound
TOR 80·WSH 83
+3pp
Q4·46.1
Brittney Sykes misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
TOR 80·WSH 83
+8pp
Q4·50.5
Angela Dugalic enters the game for Lauren Betts
·
TOR 80·WSH 83
Q4·50.5
Tempo Full timeout
TOR 80·WSH 83
Q4·50.5
Isabelle Harrison offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
TOR 80·WSH 83
−7pp
Q4·55.1
Marina Mabrey misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
TOR 80·WSH 83
+9pp
Q4·1:04
Tempo defensive team rebound
TOR 80·WSH 83
−2pp
Q4·1:06
Sonia Citron misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
TOR 80·WSH 83
−7pp

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 169.5·TOR -102/WSH -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ashington Mystics held off Toronto Tempo, 86–85. It came down to the final possession.

TOR +1.5 cashed (WSH won by 1). Total cleared the 169.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

TOR

WSH

eFG%

shooting

53.9%

49.2%

TOV%

ball control

19.1%

22.3%

OREB%

offensive glass

17.2%

48.4%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

25.0%

33.8%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Marina MabreyTOR · G
USG%.29496
Brittney SykesTOR · G
USG%.29195
Shakira AustinWSH · C
DRB%.28195
Sonia CitronWSH · G
TS%.63984
Laura JuskaiteTOR · F
TS%.60874

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
55.5%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
51.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
50.5%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.4pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

TOR

★ best

+145DraftKings

edge +11.4pp · implied 38.5%

WSH

no live price

Book	TOR	WSH	Best edge
DraftKings	+145★	-188	+11.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

WSH vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 80 high confidence

Points

Marina MabreyTOR
20.8± 8.4high
Brittney SykesTOR
18.1± 10.6medium
Shakira AustinWSH
16.8± 5.6high

Rebounds

Shakira AustinWSH
9.8± 3.7high
Kiki IriafenWSH
9.0± 3.6high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
6.8± 2.8medium

Assists

Julie AllemandTOR
6.6± 3.4high
Marina MabreyTOR
3.8± 1.6high
Sonia CitronWSH
3.8± 2.0high

Blocks

Shakira AustinWSH
1.6± 1.3high
Nyara SaballyTOR
0.8± 1.3high
Lauren BettsWSH
0.8± 1.2high

Steals

Julie AllemandTOR
1.4± 0.9high
Laura JuskaiteTOR
1.2± 1.2high
Brittney SykesTOR
1.1± 1.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Toronto TempoWashington Mystics

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Valkyries76Storm72Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop