TOR
7-6
WSH
5-6
Recap · WNBA
ashington Mystics held off Toronto Tempo, 86–85. It came down to the final possession.
TOR +1.5 cashed (WSH won by 1). Total cleared the 169.5 OVER by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
TOR · top performer
Marina Mabrey
G · #3
27
Pts
1
Reb
3
Ast
WSH · top performer
Lauren Betts
C · #51
18
Pts
4
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Toronto Tempo at Washington Mystics · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | +/- | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 28 | 8 | 4-7 | 0-1 | — | +9 | 6 | 3 | |
| 23 | 8 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 4-4 | -9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 31 | 20 | 7-14 | 1-2 | 5-6 | -5 | 2 | 3 | |
| 28 | 27 | 9-15 | 5-10 | 4-4 | -4 | 1 | 3 | |
| 26 | 9 | 4-5 | 1-2 | — | +15 | 2 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 22 | 7 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 1-2 | +7 | 6 | 4 | |
| 15 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | -9 | 1 | 2 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0-2 | — | — | -6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -3 | 0 | 1 | |
| 17 | 4 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| Team | 85 | 31-64 | 7-22 | 16-18 | 21 | 23 | ||
| DNP: N. Sabally, K. Rice | ||||||||
DNP: N. Sabally, K. Rice
| Player | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | +/- | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 29 | 17 | 7-15 | 1-3 | 2-2 | -7 | 8 | 1 | |
| 18 | 10 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 4-4 | -2 | 6 | 0 | |
| 32 | 12 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 6-7 | +7 | 11 | 3 | |
| 34 | 17 | 6-16 | 1-6 | 4-5 | +1 | 5 | 3 | |
| 26 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 1-2 | -15 | 0 | 7 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 21 | 18 | 8-9 | — | 2-2 | +3 | 4 | 1 | |
| 23 | 9 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 1-2 | +7 | 2 | 3 | |
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | -4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | +15 | 3 | 4 | |
| Team | 86 | 31-65 | 2-18 | 22-26 | 39 | 22 | ||
| DNP: K. Iriafen, R. Harmon, L. Olsen | ||||||||
DNP: K. Iriafen, R. Harmon, L. Olsen
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
48
23
Ast
22
Season series
WSH leads series 2-0
WSH68@TOR65TOR85@WSH86todayWSH@TORupcomingTOR@WSHupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
WSH -1.5
Between — and 5
Total
169.5
Standard · +4.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.2h
Moneyline
TOR-10250%WSH-11854%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
169.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 89pp · 4th Quarter · 0.5
TORM. Mabrey
GGame leader · 28 min
27 PTS · 1 REB · 3 AST
WSHL. Betts
CGame leader · 21 min
18 PTS · 4 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
WSH beat TOR 86-85. L. Betts led with 18 PTS, 4 REB, 1 AST. TOR outscored the other side 33-21 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs TOR
Starters vs bench
production by unitTORstarters 85% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 11 REB · 12 AST
GS 58
Bench(5)
13 PTS · 10 REB · 11 AST
GS 13
WSHstarters 66% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 30 REB · 14 AST
GS 40
Bench(4)
29 PTS · 9 REB · 8 AST
GS 26
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSonia Citron · shooting foul
Marina Mabrey · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isabelle Harrison assists)
Sonia Citron · makes 15-foot two point shot (Lauren Betts assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 14 | 23 | 15 | 33 | 85 |
| WSH | 17 | 23 | 25 | 21 | 86 |
Period scoring
TOR won 1 · WSH won 2
Q1
Sykes 6
Betts 8
Q2
Sykes 12
Onyenwere 11
Q3
Mabrey 4
Amoore 12
Q4
Mabrey 18
Citron 6
Shooting comparison
48%
31-64
FG
48%
31-65
32%
7-22
3PT
11%
2-18
89%
16-18
FT
85%
22-26
Play-by-play · 417 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 85·WSH 86
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 85·WSH 86
- Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Tempo] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
TOR 85·WSH 86
+2pp
- Q4·0.5
Sonia Citron makes 15-foot two point shot (Lauren Betts assists)BIG MOMENT
·
TOR 85·WSH 86
+89pp
- Q4·2.1
Brittney Sykes vs. Lauren Betts (Sonia Citron gains possession)
· ·
TOR 85·WSH 84
+2pp
- Q4·2.1
(00:02.1) [Tempo] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)BIG MOMENT
TOR 85·WSH 84
−37pp
- Q4·11.1
Lauren Betts enters the game for Angela Dugalic
·
TOR 85·WSH 84
- Q4·11.1
Mystics timeout
TOR 85·WSH 84
- Q4·11.1
Brittney Sykes makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
TOR 85·WSH 84
−10pp
- Q4·17.7
Cotie McMahon enters the game for Lauren Betts
·
TOR 83·WSH 84
- Q4·17.7
Angela Dugalic enters the game for Georgia Amoore
·
TOR 83·WSH 84
- Q4·17.7
Tempo Full timeout
TOR 83·WSH 84
- Q4·17.7
Isabelle Harrison defensive rebound
TOR 83·WSH 84
−4pp
- Q4·18.9
Sonia Citron misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
TOR 83·WSH 84
−10pp
- Q4·30.9
Lauren Betts enters the game for Angela Dugalic
·
TOR 83·WSH 84
- Q4·30.9
Mystics Full timeout
TOR 83·WSH 84
- Q4·31.6
Marina Mabrey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isabelle Harrison assists)BIG MOMENT
·
TOR 83·WSH 84
−17pp
- Q4·35.4
Tempo timeout
TOR 80·WSH 84
- Q4·35.4
Julie Allemand defensive rebound
TOR 80·WSH 84
- Q4·36.6
Georgia Amoore misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
TOR 80·WSH 84
−9pp
- Q4·36.6
Georgia Amoore makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 80·WSH 84
+1pp
- Q4·36.6
Brittney Sykes personal foulBIG MOMENT
TOR 80·WSH 83
+7pp
- Q4·44.2
Angela Dugalic defensive rebound
TOR 80·WSH 83
+3pp
- Q4·46.1
Brittney Sykes misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
TOR 80·WSH 83
+8pp
- Q4·50.5
Angela Dugalic enters the game for Lauren Betts
·
TOR 80·WSH 83
- Q4·50.5
Tempo Full timeout
TOR 80·WSH 83
- Q4·50.5
Isabelle Harrison offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
TOR 80·WSH 83
−7pp
- Q4·55.1
Marina Mabrey misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
TOR 80·WSH 83
+9pp
- Q4·1:04
Tempo defensive team rebound
TOR 80·WSH 83
−2pp
- Q4·1:06
Sonia Citron misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
TOR 80·WSH 83
−7pp
Team stats
TOR
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
31-64
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
31-65
48
FG %
48
7-22
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
2-18
16-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
22-26
23
Assists
22
17
Turnovers
22
Betting line
WSH -1.5·O/U 169.5·TOR -102/WSH -118
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort- Marina MabreyTOR · GUSG%.29196
Shakira AustinWSH · CDRB%.27996
Sonia CitronWSH · GTS%.66695
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.29093
Laura JuskaiteTOR · FTS%.61678
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
40.4%
ensemble · TOR favored
Elo Static
50.8%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Elo Recent
49.9%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
51.5%
P(WSH win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.66 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+2.08
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+120
Close price
+110
Open no-vig
43.7%
Close no-vig
45.7%
Market steamed in our direction
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+21.2pp
best edge · TOR · DraftKings
TOR
★ bestedge +21.2pp · implied 38.5%
WSH
no live price
| Book | TOR | WSH | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +145★ | -188 | +21.2 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
WSH vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Brittney SykesTOR21.4± 14.8low
- Marina MabreyTOR18.4± 11.0low
- Sonia CitronWSH16.6± 10.0low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH8.7± 6.2low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.4± 4.1low
- Nyara SaballyTOR5.2± 2.2low
Assists
- Marina MabreyTOR3.9± 3.1low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.8± 2.9low
- Julie AllemandTOR3.3± 1.8low
Blocks
- Shakira AustinWSH1.3± 1.6low
- Nyara SaballyTOR1.1± 1.0low
- Teonni KeyTOR0.7± 0.9medium
Steals
- Julie AllemandTOR1.7± 1.4low
- Brittney SykesTOR1.3± 1.5low
- Laura JuskaiteTOR1.3± 1.6medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
TOR
league avg
WSH
43.0%
FG%
44.3
▶45.2%
32.5%
3PT %
32.9
31.2%
89.9
PPG
85.2
82.7
17.8
Assists / G
18.0
▶18.7
12.2
Turnovers / G
13.0
15.7