MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3TOR

NYY

41-27

TOR

34-36

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

41,596 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TOR no-vig %

50.0%

open 50.0%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

36.9%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
34.2%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
35.6%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
34.4%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.98

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

49.0%

Market faded the model

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+27.3pp

best edge · NYY · DraftKings

NYY

★ best

+161DraftKings

edge +27.3pp · implied 36.0%

TOR

no live price

Book	NYY	TOR	Best edge
DraftKings	+161★	-213	+27.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TOR vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.9low
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.7± 3.3low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.1± 2.4low

Hits

Ernie ClementTOR
1.3± 1.0high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.2± 0.8high
Nathan LukesTOR
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Ernie ClementTOR
2.1± 2.3high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.0± 2.0high
Ben RiceNYY
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.9± 1.4high
Ben RiceNYY
0.7± 1.3high
Cody BellingerNYY
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
4.2± 4.0low
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
3.2± 3.3low
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

TOR

.764

OPS

◀

.715

.701

.331

OBP

◀

.319

.313

5.10

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.11

3.36

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.08

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.27

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

NYY 5 · TOR 8 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	5
TOR	3	2	0	0	2	0	0	1	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. GrishamCF	.232	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
B. Rice1B	.291	3	1	0	0	0	2	0
P. Goldschmidt1B	.286	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
C. BellingerLF	.270	5	1	1	2	1	0	0
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.232	4	0	1	0	0	1	2
S. JonesRF	.263	2	1	0	0	0	2	2
J. CaballeroSS	.265	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
R. McMahon3B	.213	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J.C. EscarraC	.171	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. SchuemannSS	.238	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Rosario3B	.257	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. SanchezC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	5	7	5	1	7	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.232

.291

.286

.270

.232

.263

.265

.213

.171

.238

.257

.000

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. WeathersSP	4.1	5	6	6	1	2	82
J. BirdRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	20
B. HeadrickRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	12
C. DovalRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	18
F. CruzRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	2	23
Team	8.0	10	8	8	4	8	155

Player

4.1

1.0

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

155

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
G. SpringerDH	.208	2	3	1	2	1	3	0
E. Clement2B	.306	5	1	2	1	0	0	0
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.280	5	1	1	1	0	0	1
A. KirkC	.261	3	1	3	2	0	1	0
K. Okamoto3B	.230	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
N. LukesRF	.309	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
M. StrawRF	.248	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. SchneiderLF	.123	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. GimenezSS	.222	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
Y. PinangoLF	.296	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		34	8	10	8	2	4	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
T. YesavageSP	5.0	4	5	5	6	3	81
M. FluhartyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
B. FisherRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	26
T. RogersRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	7
L. VarlandRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16
Team	9.0	7	5	5	7	8	143

Team

NYY

TOR

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TOR vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

TOR vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.