MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Bichette homered to right (341 feet), Melendez scored, Torrens scored and Benge scored. → win prob 60→89% NYM

TOP 6TH+4NYM

ATL

45-23

NYM

30-38

MLB · At bat

Top 60-22 outs

Pitcher· NYM

H. Brazoban

0.1 IP, 1 K, 0 ER

Batter· ATL

M. Yastrzemski

1-2, 1 RBI, 1 K

LastPitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

Live · model leanTop 6thPolls every 30s

65.7%

NYM wins · current

Pre-game: 60.5% ATL

ATL 3 · 7 NYM

NYM +4

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6

away leadsNYM leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingNYMBottom 2nd Inning · 2-6
+29pp→ 89% WP
Bichette · homered to right (341 feet), Melendez scored, Torrens scored and Benge scored.
SwingNYMTop 2nd Inning · 2-2
+9pp→ 50% WP
Dub · ón popped out to first.
Lead flipATLTop 2nd Inning · 2-2
+15pp→ 60% WP
Yastrzemski · singled to right, Smith scored, Riley to third.
SwingNYMBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 67% WP
Bichette · homered to left center (383 feet).

Citi Field · Queens, New York

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.98

S. Strider

4-1 · 4.00 ERA

N. McLean

3-4 · 3.98 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYM spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.5 · +0.5

NYM no-vig %

51.7%

open 47.8% · +3.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
40.1%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
40.1%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
40.8%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

99.0%

+58.9ppvs pre-game · NYM favored

Leverage

±2.4

pp · next play

low · 3/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-5.51

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-120

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

46.7%

Market faded the model hard

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+14.6pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

ATL

★ best

+108DraftKings

edge +14.6pp · implied 45.9%

NYM

no live price

Book	ATL	NYM	Best edge
DraftKings	+108★	-131	+14.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

NYM vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.1low
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.2± 2.8low
Spencer StriderATL
6.1± 3.1low

Hits

Michael Harris IIATL
1.2± 1.2high
Matt OlsonATL
1.1± 1.0high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.4± 2.8high
Carson BengeNYM
2.1± 3.6high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.8± 2.2high

RBIs

Matt OlsonATL
0.7± 1.0high
Mauricio DubonATL
0.7± 1.2high
Michael Harris IIATL
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

JR RitchieATL
2.6± 2.0low
David PetersonNYM
2.6± 3.7low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

NYM

.751

OPS

◀

.715

.664

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.293

5.12

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.04

3.28

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.89

1.17

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.28

8.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

The One modelEdge

● Live

ATL★

Braves

52-26

vs60.5%ATL

NYM

Mets

33-41

ATL 60.5%win prob39.5% NYM

ATL 1573 · NYM 1479Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. DubonSS	.257	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Harris IICF	.302	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Olson1B	.272	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
O. Albies2B	.281	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
D. SmithDH	.291	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
A. Riley3B	.206	1	0	0	0	0	2	1
M. YastrzemskiLF	.237	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
H. KimSS	.094	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. WynnsC	.078	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		20	3	4	3	1	4	7

Player

AVG

RBI

.257

.302

.272

.281

.291

.206

.237

.094

.078

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. StriderSP	3.0	6	7	7	1	3	68
J. RitchieSP	2.0	1	0	0	1	3	33
Team	5.0	7	7	7	2	6	101

Player

S. StriderSP

3.0

J. RitchieSP

2.0

Team

5.0

101

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. BengeRF	.257	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
B. Bichette3B	.233	2	2	2	6	2	0	0
J. SotoLF	.279	2	1	1	1	1	1	0
J. Young1B	.275	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A.J. EwingCF	.255	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Semien2B	.221	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. Baty3B	.225	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. MelendezDH	.208	1	2	1	0	0	1	0
L. TorrensC	.228	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
Team		21	7	7	7	3	2	6