MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CLE

DET

29-41

CLE

38-33

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

35,427 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

CLE no-vig %

50.5%

open 50.0% · +0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.6%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
59.5%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.1%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.7%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.21

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-110

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+13.2pp

best edge · DET · DraftKings

DET

★ best

+254DraftKings

edge +13.2pp · implied 26.5%

CLE

no live price

Book	DET	CLE	Best edge
DraftKings	+254★	-358	+13.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CLE vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Parker MessickCLE
5.8± 2.3low
Jack FlahertyDET
5.6± 3.5low

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.3± 1.6high
Gleyber TorresDET
1.3± 1.3high
Jose RamirezCLE
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.8± 4.4high
Jose RamirezCLE
2.0± 2.3high
Gleyber TorresDET
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
1.2± 1.8high
Kerry CarpenterDET
0.8± 1.0high
Gleyber TorresDET
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low
Framber ValdezDET
2.8± 2.6low
Joey CantilloCLE
2.7± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

CLE

.706

OPS

◀

.715

.689

.315

OBP

.319

.317

4.10

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.03

3.97

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.79

1.28

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

8.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

DET 2 · CLE 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	2
CLE	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
K. McGonigleSS	.279	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. Torres2B	.276	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. GreeneLF	.298	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
D. DinglerC	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. CarpenterRF	.231	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Keith3B	.258	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Torkelson1B	.213	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
Z. McKinstry2B	.180	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. OutmanCF	.164	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
Team		29	2	2	2	2	2	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.279

.276

.298

.250

.231

.258

.213

.180

.164

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. FlahertySP	3.0	3	2	2	1	1	63
J. WaguespackRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20
D. SommersRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	15
D. AndersonRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	21
T. MaddenSP	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	29
Team	8.0	9	3	3	2	8	148

Player

3.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

Team

8.0

148

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. Bazzana2B	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Ramirez3B	.238	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. DeLauterRF	.259	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
K. Manzardo1B	.235	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Hoskins1B	.190	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. MartinezLF	.240	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
S. KwanCF	.218	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
P. BaileyC	.165	3	1	2	1	0	1	1
B. RocchioSS	.277	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
Team		33	3	9	3	0	2	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
T. BibeeSP	7.0	2	2	2	2	8	91
H. GaddisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
C. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	2	2	2	2	9	117

Team

DET

CLE

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CLE vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.