MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9BOS

TEX

34-35

110

BOS

28-39

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

33,919 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

BOS no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.1%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
47.1%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.4%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.6%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.21 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.79

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Market came to the model

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+28.1pp

best edge · TEX · DraftKings

TEX

★ best

+223DraftKings

edge +28.1pp · implied 29.1%

BOS

no live price

Book	TEX	BOS	Best edge
DraftKings	+223★	-308	+28.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BOS vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.3± 3.5low
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 3.9low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
5.8± 2.8low

Hits

Josh JungTEX
1.2± 0.8high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.0high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
1.1± 1.4high

Total bases

Caleb DurbinBOS
1.8± 2.6high
Willson ContrerasBOS
1.7± 2.4high
Josh JungTEX
1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

Elias DiazTEX
0.7± 1.1low
Caleb DurbinBOS
0.6± 0.9high
Willson ContrerasBOS
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Jake BennettBOS
3.0± 2.3low
Jack LeiterTEX
2.9± 2.6low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
2.7± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

BOS

.698

OPS

.715

.696

.316

OBP

.319

.314

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

4.00

3.74

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.89

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.28

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

TEX 1 · BOS 10 (by 9)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
BOS	2	0	0	0	4	0	1	3	10

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. PedersonDH	.243	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. Jung3B	.308	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. NimmoRF	.255	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
W. LangfordLF	.224	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
E. Duran2B	.290	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. CarterCF	.176	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Burger1B	.247	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. HigashiokaC	.225	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Lopez2B	.262	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. DiazC	.281	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. HelmanCF	.179	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Foscue2B	.246	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	1	6	1	0	0	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.243

.308

.255

.224

.290

.176

.247

.225

.262

.281

.179

.246

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. LeiterSP	5.0	8	6	5	2	3	103
C. QuantrillRP	2.0	1	1	1	0	1	38
L. CurveloRP	1.0	3	3	3	1	0	26
Team	8.0	12	10	9	3	4	167

Player

J. LeiterSP

5.0

103

C. QuantrillRP

2.0

L. CurveloRP

1.0

Team

8.0

167

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. GasperC	.272	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
C. RafaelaCF	.287	5	3	3	3	1	0	0
W. AbreuRF	.280	4	3	3	3	1	0	0
W. Contreras1B	.293	4	2	3	2	1	0	1
J. DuranLF	.209	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. Durbin3B	.201	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.265	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Mayer2B	.220	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. WongC	.257	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
Team		34	10	12	9	3	3	4

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. GraySP	6.0	5	1	1	0	7	88
T. GuerreroRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
D. CoulombeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	14
T. KahnleRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
Team	9.0	6	1	1	0	8	124

Team

TEX

BOS

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

BOS vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs TEX.

3 sub-models, blended.