MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Moreno walked. → win prob 44→50% ARI

TOP 9THTied

ARI

34-34

CIN

32-35

MLB · At bat

Top 90-22 outs

Pitcher· CIN

B. Burke

0.2 IP, 0 ER

Batter· ARI

G. Perdomo

1-4, 1 K

LastPitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

Live · model leanTop 9thPolls every 30s

50.7%

CIN wins · current

Pre-game: 51.8% CIN

ARI 2 · 2 CIN

Tied

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 9

away leadsCIN leads

Key moments · live

newest first

Lead flipCINTop 8th Inning · 2-2
+14pp→ 60% WP
Marte · struck out looking. Cincinnati Reds challenged call on the field was overturned
ClutchARIBottom 6th Inning · 2-2
+10pp→ 50% WP
Marte · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Dunn out at second.
Lead flipARITop 6th Inning · 2-2
+16pp→ 51% WP
Groover · singled to center, Lawlar scored.
SwingCINBottom 3rd Inning · 1-2
+12pp→ 66% WP
Suárez singled to center, Steer scored on throwing error by center fielder Lawlar, Suárez to second. Cincinnati Reds challenged call on the field was upheld
Lead flipCINBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+15pp→ 64% WP
Marte · homered to center (427 feet).

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 8.03

E. Rodriguez

5-2 · 2.52 ERA

N. Lodolo

2-1 · 5.51 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

CIN spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

CIN no-vig %

48.5%

open 50.0% · -1.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.5%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
52.8%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.2%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.74 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

43.9%

-8.9ppvs pre-game · ARI favored

Calibrated · at ~46% reads, home has won 41% (251)

Leverage

±13.0

pp · next play

peak · 100/100

Tied · 9th or later · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.08

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Market came to the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

ARI

no live price

CIN

no live price

Book	ARI	CIN	Best edge
DraftKings	-110	-119	+0.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

CIN vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.9± 3.1low
Michael SorokaARI
5.2± 2.7low
Eduardo RodriguezARI
4.5± 1.8low

Hits

Blake DunnCIN
1.2± 0.9high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.0± 1.0high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Corbin CarrollARI
2.2± 2.5high
JJ BledayCIN
1.9± 1.6high
Jordan LawlarARI
1.7± 1.8low

RBIs

Ketel MarteARI
0.7± 1.0high
JJ BledayCIN
0.6± 0.7high
Sal StewartCIN
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.6± 3.5low
Ryne NelsonARI
3.4± 3.5low
Nick LodoloCIN
3.3± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

CIN

.690

OPS

.715

▶

.709

.306

OBP

.319

▶

.314

4.22

Runs / G

4.50

4.24

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.75

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.47

7.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

7.9

The One modelTossup

● Live

ARI

Diamondbacks

36-39

vs51.8%CIN

CIN★

Reds

38-39

ARI 48.2%win prob51.8% CIN

CIN 1476 · ARI 1481Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
K. Marte2B	.247	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
C. CarrollRF	.280	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. MorenoC	.260	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
N. Arenado3B	.248	4	0	0	1	0	0	0
I. Vargas1B	.271	3	0	0	0	0	2	0
G. PerdomoSS	.241	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. LawlarLF	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
L. Groover3B	.238	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
R. WaldschmidtCF	.259	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		32	2	6	2	0	5	6

Player

AVG

RBI

.247

.280

.260

.248

.271

.241

.333

.238

.259

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
E. RodriguezSP	2.2	2	2	1	5	3	85
R. ThompsonRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	18
J. LoaisigaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
T. ClarkeRP	2.0	1	0	0	2	2	36
K. GinkelRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	20
Team	8.0	4	2	1	9	7	170

Player

2.2

1.1

1.0

2.0

1.0

Team

8.0

170

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
D. MyersCF	.265	1	0	0	0	0	3	1
J. BledayLF	.272	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
S. Stewart1B	.251	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. SteerLF	.254	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
E. SuarezDH	.219	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
B. DunnRF	.282	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. MarteRF	.208	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
T. StephensonC	.208	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. McLain2B	.205	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. ArroyoSS	.227	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. LoweDH	.252	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
P.J. HigginsC	.231	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		27	2	4	1	1	9	7