HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBTop 9
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    -8.9pppeak
  • MLBBot 2
    COL 0@ATH 0
    +8.4ppmedium
  • MLBEnd 1
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -5.9ppmedium
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 3@MIN 4
    +41.4ppmedium
  • MLBTop 6
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBEnd 3
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +60.5pplow
  • MLBEnd 5
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA9:20 - 2nd
    GS 23@SEA 21
    +0.6pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4BAL
SD

SD

35-33

3
7
BAL

BAL

34-37

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
25,458 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

BAL no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

-1.0-2.0BAL SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL60.3%52.3%BAL NO-VIG %Jun 11, 6 PMJun 12, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SD

SD

league avg

BAL

BAL

.650

OPS

.715

▶

.727

.291

OBP

.319

▶

.324

3.79

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.76

3.95

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.53

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

SD 3 · BAL 7 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD1100100003
BAL330100007

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 67-32
62%Last 30 · 305-190
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+32.2pp

best edge · SD · DraftKings

SD

★ best
+287DraftKings

edge +32.2pp · implied 24.3%

BAL

no live price

BookSDBALBest edge
DraftKings+287★-415+32.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.19

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+119

Close price

+108

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

45.9%

Market steamed in our direction

MLB·Fri, Jun 12·Final/SeriesBAL leads series 1-0/VegasBAL -131

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off San Diego Padres, 7–3.

BAL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 9.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1G. CanningSD−38.3pp
  2. 2G. HendersonBAL+19.1pp
  3. 3P. AlonsoBAL+18.2pp

SD · top performer

SD
Manny Machado

Manny Machado

3B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Gunnar Henderson

Gunnar Henderson

SS

3.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.RF
.2795111000
J. MerrillCF
.2025000000
M. Machado3B
.1784120000
X. BogaertsSS
.2323010010
G. Sheets1B
.2304022000
S. Taylor2B
.3164010001
T. France1B
.2583100003
W. Wagner3B
.5002000021
F. FerminC
.1494000001
Team34373036

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
G. CanningSP
5.06775693
W. PeraltaRP
1.21002330
D. MorganRP
1.11000218
Team8.0877711141

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardLF
.2634110011
G. HendersonSS
.2263231110
A. RutschmanC
.2702001010
P. Alonso1B
.2451112030
S. BasalloC
.2574112102
C. Mayo3B
.1924000003
C. CowserRF
.2242100012
T. O'NeillRF
.1884120002
J. Holliday2B
.2153001001
Team277872711

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
S. BazSP
5.063221103
A. NunezRP
1.00001221
K. AkinRP
1.01000012
Y. CanoRP
1.00000316
A. KittredgeRP
1.0000009
Team9.073236161

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • G. Canning
    93 pitches·32% CSW
    • SL
      41%·86.4 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      28%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·88.0 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      4%·79.9 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      4%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      2%·85.9 mph·100% whiff
  • W. Peralta
    30 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      47%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      30%·90.3 mph·80% whiff
    • SL
      13%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Morgan
    18 pitches·50% CSW
    • SL
      39%·87.1 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      28%·83.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      28%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·96.6 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • S. Baz
    103 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      35%·95.5 mph·13% whiff
    • KC
      31%·84.9 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      17%·94.4 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      15%·89.2 mph·45% whiff
    • CH
      3%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Nunez
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      43%·96.8 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      38%·87.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      5%·88.8 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Cano
    16 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      44%·95.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      31%·86.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      25%·90.9 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Akin
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      33%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • SI
      56%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·94.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

8

3

Runs

7

0

Errors

1

Current series

BAL leads series 1-0

Jun 12SDSD3@BALBAL7today
Jun 13SDSD@BALBALupcoming
Jun 14SDSD@BALBALupcoming

Season series

BAL leads series 1-0

Jun 12SDSD3@BALBAL7today
Jun 13SDSD@BALBALupcoming
Jun 14SDSD@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SDSD+10948%
BALBAL-13157%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 1st Inning

SDSD
M. Machado

M. Machado

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

G. Canning

G. Canning

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 7 ER · 6 H · 5 BB

BALBAL
G. Henderson

G. Henderson

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 HR · 3.000 OPS

S. Baz

S. Baz

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 1 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

BAL beat SD 7-3.

Win probability

BAL vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 49% WP

Sheets · doubled to right, Tatis Jr. scored, Bogaerts to third.

BALBottom 1st Inning · 1-3
+16pp→ 79% WP

Basallo · homered to right center (389 feet), Alonso scored.

BALBottom 2nd Inning · 2-6
+9pp→ 92% WP

Alonso · singled to left, Henderson scored and O'Neill scored, Rutschman to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD1100100003
BAL33010000—7

Period scoring

SD won 1 · BAL won 3

1
3

Inn 1

Sheets 1

Basallo 2

1
3

Inn 2

Jr. 1

Alonso 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Henderson 1

1
0

Inn 5

Sheets 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SD
BAL

Play-by-play · 576 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  2. T9

    Merrill lined out to right.

    ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  6. T9

    Andrew Kittredge pitches to Jackson Merrill

    ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  7. T9

    ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  8. T9

    Tatis Jr. grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

    +0.5pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  11. T9

    Andrew Kittredge pitches to Fernando Tatis Jr.

    ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  12. T9

    ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  13. T9

    Fermin grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

    +0.7pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  18. T9

    Andrew Kittredge pitches to Freddy Fermin

    ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  19. T9

    Kittredge relieved Cano

    ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  20. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SD 3·BAL 7

  21. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SD 3·BAL 7

  22. B8

    · ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  23. B8

    Ward grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  24. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  25. B8

    O'Neill to second, Cowser caught stealing third, catcher to third.

    · ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  26. B8

    O'Neill to second, Cowser caught stealing third, catcher to third.

    · ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  27. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  28. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  29. B8

    David Morgan pitches to Taylor Ward

    · ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

  30. B8

    · ·

    SD 3·BAL 7

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

3

Runs

7

7

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

10

TB

14

0

HR

2

3

BB

7

6

K

11

21

LOB

15

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 9.5·SD +109/BAL -131

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · RF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

BAL vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.2± 3.1low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.2± 2.3low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.2± 2.9low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Taylor WardBAL
    1.2± 1.1high
  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.9± 2.9high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.1± 1.6high
  • Samad TaylorSD
    1.0± 1.6low
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.4low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.3± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.9%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    48.7%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.4%

    P(BAL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.2%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.