
SD
35-33

BAL
34-37
Line movement
200 snapshots
BAL spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.5
BAL no-vig %
56.3%
open 56.3%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
SD
league avg
BAL
.650
OPS
.715
▶.727
.291
OBP
.319
▶.324
3.79
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.76
3.95
Team ERA
4.17
4.53
1.29
WHIP
1.31
1.40
8.5
K / 9
8.5
7.8
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
BAL wins
SD 3 · BAL 7 (by 4)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked SD +1pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| BAL | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Line shopping · 1 book
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+32.2pp
best edge · SD · DraftKings
SD
★ bestedge +32.2pp · implied 24.3%
BAL
no live price
| Book | SD | BAL | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +287★ | -415 | +32.2 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
The receipts
+2.19
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+119
Close price
+108
Open no-vig
43.7%
Close no-vig
45.9%
Market steamed in our direction
Recap · MLB
altimore Orioles held off San Diego Padres, 7–3.
BAL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 9.5 OVER by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SD · top performer

Manny Machado
3B
4-2
AB-H
1
R
0
RBI
BAL · top performer

Gunnar Henderson
SS
3-3
AB-H
2
R
1
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST
| Player | AVG | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .279 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .202 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .178 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .232 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .230 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .316 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .258 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| .500 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| .149 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 34 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 93 | |
| 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 30 | |
| 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | |
| Team | 8.0 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 141 |
| Player | AVG | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .263 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .226 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| .270 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .245 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| .257 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| .192 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| .224 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| .188 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .215 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 27 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 103 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 161 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantSD
BAL
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
7
Hits
8
3
Runs
7
0
Errors
1
Current series
BAL leads series 1-0
Season series
BAL leads series 1-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
BAL -1.5
Total
9.5
High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
9.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 1st Inning
M. Machado
3BBatter of the game
2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS
G. Canning
SPStarting pitcher
5.0 IP · 6 K · 7 ER · 6 H · 5 BB
G. Henderson
SSBatter of the gamePerfect day
3-for-3 · 1 HR · 3.000 OPS
S. Baz
SPStarting pitcher
5.0 IP · 1 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 2 BB
How it ended
BAL beat SD 7-3.
Win probability
BAL vs SD
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSheets · doubled to right, Tatis Jr. scored, Bogaerts to third.
Basallo · homered to right center (389 feet), Alonso scored.
Alonso · singled to left, Henderson scored and O'Neill scored, Rutschman to second.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| BAL | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 7 |
Period scoring
SD won 1 · BAL won 3
Inn 1
Sheets 1
Basallo 2
Inn 2
Jr. 1
Alonso 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Henderson 1
Inn 5
Sheets 1
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 576 plays
·
SD 3·BAL 7
Merrill lined out to right.
·
SD 3·BAL 7
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
·
SD 3·BAL 7
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul
·
SD 3·BAL 7
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
SD 3·BAL 7
Andrew Kittredge pitches to Jackson Merrill
·
SD 3·BAL 7
·
SD 3·BAL 7
Tatis Jr. grounded out to shortstop.
·
SD 3·BAL 7
+0.5pp
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
·
SD 3·BAL 7
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
SD 3·BAL 7
Andrew Kittredge pitches to Fernando Tatis Jr.
·
SD 3·BAL 7
·
SD 3·BAL 7
Fermin grounded out to pitcher.
·
SD 3·BAL 7
+0.7pp
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
·
SD 3·BAL 7
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
SD 3·BAL 7
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
SD 3·BAL 7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
SD 3·BAL 7
Andrew Kittredge pitches to Freddy Fermin
·
SD 3·BAL 7
Kittredge relieved Cano
·
SD 3·BAL 7
Top of the 9th inning
SD 3·BAL 7
End of the 8th inning
SD 3·BAL 7
· ·
SD 3·BAL 7
Ward grounded out to shortstop.
· ·
SD 3·BAL 7
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
· ·
SD 3·BAL 7
O'Neill to second, Cowser caught stealing third, catcher to third.
· ·
SD 3·BAL 7
O'Neill to second, Cowser caught stealing third, catcher to third.
· ·
SD 3·BAL 7
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking
· ·
SD 3·BAL 7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
SD 3·BAL 7
David Morgan pitches to Taylor Ward
· ·
SD 3·BAL 7
· ·
SD 3·BAL 7
Team stats
SD
Away
Stat
BAL
Home
3
Runs
7
7
Hits
8
0
Errors
1
10
TB
14
0
HR
2
3
BB
7
6
K
11
21
LOB
15
Betting line
BAL -1.5·O/U 9.5·SD +109/BAL -131
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 players in cohortPlayer projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
129
projections · 82 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.9%
ensemble · SD favored
Elo Static
48.7%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.4%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.2%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.51 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
90% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.