MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Raley singled to right, Rodríguez scored and Robles scored. → win prob 91→98% SEA

BOT 5TH+7SEA

SEA

36-34

WSH

35-34

MLB · At bat

Bottom 52-22 outs

Pitcher· SEA

B. Miller

4.2 IP, 3 K, 1 ER

Batter· WSH

J. Young

0-1, 1 K

LastPitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

Live · model leanBot 5thPolls every 30s

79.2%

SEA wins · current

Pre-game: 56.6% SEA

SEA 8 · 1 WSH

SEA +7

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsWSH leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingSEATop 5th Inning · 8-1
+8pp→ 98% WP
Raley · singled to right, Rodríguez scored and Robles scored.
SwingSEATop 2nd Inning · 5-0
+12pp→ 88% WP
Emerson · homered to center (407 feet), Pereda scored.
SwingSEATop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+19pp→ 74% WP
Canzone · tripled to center, Arozarena scored and Raley scored.

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 6.09

B. Miller

2-0 · 1.33 ERA

Z. Littell

6-4 · 4.76 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.0 · +0.5

WSH no-vig %

42.7%

open 42.8% · -0.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.8%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
48.4%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.3%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.8%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

1.0%

-47.4ppvs pre-game · SEA favored

Leverage

±2.3

pp · next play

low · 3/100

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.07

CLV pp

Open price

+123

Close price

+123

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.9%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

SEA

no live price

WSH

no live price

Book	SEA	WSH	Best edge
DraftKings	-144	+120	+0.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

WSH vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cade CavalliWSH
6.0± 4.1low
Bryan WooSEA
5.8± 4.0low
Bryce MillerSEA
5.8± 3.2low

Hits

Daylen LileWSH
1.2± 1.3high
Cole YoungSEA
1.1± 0.8high
Jhonny PeredaSEA
1.1± 0.7medium

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.1± 2.6high
James WoodWSH
2.0± 1.9high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.9± 1.7high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
1.0± 1.8high
Josh NaylorSEA
0.6± 1.3high
Randy ArozarenaSEA
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Bryan WooSEA
3.1± 3.9low
George KirbySEA
2.8± 2.1low
Zack LittellWSH
2.7± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

WSH

.717

OPS

.715

▶

.740

.318

OBP

.319

▶

.322

4.30

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.33

3.58

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.74

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

The One modelLean

● Live

SEA★

Mariners

43-42

vs56.6%SEA

WSH

Nationals

38-39

SEA 56.6%win prob43.4% WSH

SEA 1519 · WSH 1484Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. Young2B	.256	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. RodriguezCF	.253	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. Naylor1B	.254	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. ArozarenaLF	.291	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
L. RaleyRF	.251	2	1	1	2	0	1	0
D. CanzoneDH	.277	3	1	1	2	0	0	0
M. Mastrobuoni3B	.375	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. PeredaC	.293	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. Emerson3B	.239	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
V. RoblesRF	.294	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team		20	8	7	7	1	3	1

Player

AVG

RBI

.256

.253

.254

.291

.251

.277

.375

.293

.239

.294

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. MillerSP	4.2	2	1	1	0	3	61
Team	4.2	2	1	1	0	3	61

Player

B. MillerSP

4.2

Team

4.2

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. WoodRF	.277	2	1	2	1	1	0	0
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.262	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Mead1B	.240	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. AbramsSS	.285	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. CrewsRF	.178	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. LileLF	.264	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. YoungCF	.235	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Vivas3B	.236	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. RuizC	.272	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		15	1	2	1	1	0	3