MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Jordan struck out looking. → win prob 62→68% MIN

TOP 7TH+1MIN

STL

37-29

MIN

31-39

MLB · At bat

Top 70-01 out

Pitcher· MIN

T. Rogers

0.1 IP, 1 K, 0 ER

Batter· STL

N. Velazquez

0-0

LastTaylor Rogers pitches to Nelson Velazquez

Live · model leanTop 7thPolls every 30s

52.6%

MIN wins · current

Pre-game: 58.4% STL

STL 3 · 4 MIN

MIN +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 7

away leadsMIN leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingMINBottom 6th Inning · 3-3
+22pp→ 76% WP
Bell · doubled to center, Buxton scored, Clemens to third.
ClutchMINBottom 5th Inning · 3-1
+15pp→ 48% WP
Caratini · doubled to center, Lewis to third.
Lead flipSTLTop 2nd Inning · 2-1
+11pp→ 59% WP
Jordan · singled to center, Nootbaar scored, Winn to second.
Lead flipMINBottom 1st Inning · 1-1
+11pp→ 60% WP
Buxton · homered to center (425 feet).
SwingSTLTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 50% WP
Burleson · homered to right center (419 feet).

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.49

K. Leahy

5-3 · 4.42 ERA

J. Ryan

4-3 · 3.07 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIN spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIN no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.7%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
44.6%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.2%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.5%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

86.0%

+41.4ppvs pre-game · MIN favored

Leverage

±6.8

pp · next play

medium · 43/100

1-point game · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.01

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

44.7%

Market came to the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+13.5pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

STL

★ best

+113DraftKings

edge +13.5pp · implied 44.9%

MIN

no live price

Book	STL	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+113★	-136	+13.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

MIN vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.1± 3.4low
Taj BradleyMIN
6.1± 3.0low
Connor PrielippMIN
5.4± 2.8low

Hits

Jordan WalkerSTL
1.4± 1.0high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.3± 0.5high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Alec BurlesonSTL
2.6± 1.8high
Jordan WalkerSTL
2.4± 1.9high
Lars NootbaarSTL
2.2± 3.5low

RBIs

Alec BurlesonSTL
1.0± 1.1high
Jordan WalkerSTL
0.9± 1.1high
Lars NootbaarSTL
0.8± 1.0low

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.5± 3.9low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.8± 2.4low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.6± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

MIN

.716

OPS

◀

.715

.706

.322

OBP

◀

.319

.315

4.49

Runs / G

4.50

4.51

4.03

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.77

1.33

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.3

The One modelEdge

● Live

STL★

Cardinals

40-30

vs58.4%STL

MIN

Twins

39-42

STL 58.4%win prob41.6% MIN

STL 1522 · MIN 1460Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Wetherholt2B	.249	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
I. HerreraDH	.263	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Burleson1B	.291	3	1	1	1	1	0	2
J. WalkerRF	.298	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. NootbaarLF	.240	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. WinnSS	.233	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. CrooksC	.167	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Jordan1B	.333	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
N. ChurchLF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. VelazquezOF	.364	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		25	3	6	3	1	1	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.249

.263

.291

.298

.240

.233

.167

.333

.250

.364

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
K. LeahySP	5.0	8	4	4	1	5	77
G. SorianoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
Team	6.0	8	4	4	1	5	85

Player

K. LeahySP

5.0

G. SorianoRP

1.0

Team

6.0

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. LarnachLF	.251	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. BuxtonCF	.266	3	2	3	1	1	0	0
K. Clemens1B	.242	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. BellDH	.230	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
R. Lewis3B	.192	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
V. CaratiniC	.215	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. LeeSS	.236	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Gray3B	.265	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
L. Keaschall2B	.245	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		23	4	8	4	1	1	5