MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6MIL

PHI

37-32

MIL

42-25

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin

40,205 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

MIL no-vig %

68.4%

open 69.0% · -0.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.3%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
59.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.5%
P(MIL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.83 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+209

Close price

+209

Open no-vig

31.0%

Close no-vig

31.0%

Line barely moved

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.6pp

best edge · PHI · DraftKings

PHI

★ best

+206DraftKings

edge +9.6pp · implied 30.7%

MIL

no live price

Book	PHI	MIL	Best edge
DraftKings	+206★	-280	+9.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIL vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
8.8± 2.6low
Cristopher SanchezPHI
8.1± 3.4low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.3± 5.5low

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.5± 1.2high
Andrew VaughnMIL
1.4± 1.4high
Christian YelichMIL
1.4± 1.0high

Total bases

Jackson ChourioMIL
2.9± 2.7high
Brice TurangMIL
2.2± 2.5high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.2± 2.2high

RBIs

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.0± 1.4high
Jake BauersMIL
1.0± 1.4high
Brice TurangMIL
0.9± 1.2high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.6low
Andrew PainterPHI
3.4± 3.1low
Robert GasserMIL
3.3± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

MIL

.681

OPS

.715

▶

.730

.296

OBP

.319

▶

.340

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.34

4.04

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.42

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.21

9.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

PHI 0 · MIL 6 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
MIL	1	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
K. SchwarberDH	.240	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
T. TurnerSS	.223	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Harper1B	.264	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. MarshLF	.322	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. Bohm3B	.223	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Stott2B	.227	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. Rincones Jr.RF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J.T. RealmutoC	.196	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CrawfordCF	.228	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
Team		27	0	1	0	0	0	15

Player

AVG

RBI

.240

.223

.264

.322

.223

.227

.000

.196

.228

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
T. BanksRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	2	28
A. PainterSP	5.0	5	5	5	3	3	78
C. ShugartRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	12
T. MayzaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	22
Team	8.0	8	6	6	5	8	140

Player

1.0

5.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

140

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. YelichDH	.278	4	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. ChourioLF	.301	5	0	1	1	0	0	1
B. Turang2B	.267	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
W. ContrerasC	.285	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
J. Bauers1B	.278	3	1	1	3	1	1	2
A. Vaughn1B	.366	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
G. MitchellCF	.247	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. HamiltonSS	.233	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. OrtizSS	.209	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
S. FrelickRF	.232	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		32	6	8	5	1	5	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. MisiorowskiSP	9.0	1	0	0	0	15	95
Team	9.0	1	0	0	0	15	95

Team

PHI

MIL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

MIL vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIL vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.