MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5CLE

DET

87-75

CLE

88-74

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

26,669 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.7%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
59.7%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.0%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.9%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.86 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Parker MessickCLE
5.8± 2.3low
Jack FlahertyDET
5.6± 3.5low

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.3± 1.6high
Gleyber TorresDET
1.3± 1.3high
Jose RamirezCLE
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.8± 4.4high
Jose RamirezCLE
2.0± 2.3high
Gleyber TorresDET
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
1.2± 1.8high
Kerry CarpenterDET
0.8± 1.0high
Gleyber TorresDET
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low
Framber ValdezDET
2.8± 2.6low
Joey CantilloCLE
2.7± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

CLE

.707

OPS

◀

.715

.688

.316

OBP

.319

.317

4.09

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.01

3.97

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.79

1.28

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

8.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

DET 1 · CLE 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
CLE	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
P. MeadowsCF	.125	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
G. Torres2B	.125	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. CarpenterRF	.375	4	0	2	0	0	1	1
S. Torkelson1B	.167	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
R. GreeneLF	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
W. PerezRF	.000	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. DinglerC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	2	1
Z. McKinstry2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
J. BaezSS	.571	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
J. JonesDH	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Ibanez2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MalloyRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	1	7	1	0	6	11

Player

AVG

RBI

.125

.125

.375

.167

.333

.000

.000

.000

.571

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. MizeSP	3.0	1	1	1	2	1	62
T. HoltonRP	2.1	1	0	0	0	1	31
K. FinneganRP	1.2	0	0	0	1	1	18
T. MeltonSP	0.1	3	4	4	1	0	14
B. HurterRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	11
Team	8.0	6	6	6	4	3	136

Player

3.0

2.1

1.2

0.1

0.2

Team

8.0

136

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. KwanCF	.125	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
G. ValeraLF	.333	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. Ramirez3B	.250	1	1	0	0	0	3	0
K. Manzardo1B	.125	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. NaylorC	.200	4	1	1	3	1	0	1
G. AriasSS	.143	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. DeLauterRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. KayfusLF	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. RocchioSS	.167	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. RodriguezRF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SchneemannCF	.500	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
P. HalpinCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	6	6	6	3	4	3

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
T. BibeeSP	4.2	5	1	1	3	6	87
E. SabrowskiRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	18
H. GaddisRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	0	20
T. HerrinRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	13
J. JunisRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	12
C. SmithRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	31
Team	9.0	7	1	1	6	11	181

Team

DET

CLE

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.