HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 12
  • MLBBot 6
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    +3.6pppeak
  • MLBTop 9
    DET 2@CLE 3
    +39.0pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    NYY 5@TOR 7
    +63.0pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    STL 3@MIN 1
    -39.7pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    SD 3@BAL 7
    +50.3pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    ATL 2@NYM 6
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -48.3pplow
  • MLBTop 2
    SEA 5@WSH 0
    -47.4pplow
  • MLBEnd 7
    TEX 1@BOS 7
    +51.9pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    LAD 2@CHW 8
    +53.3pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    PHI 0@MIL 6
    +40.0pplow
  • WNBA2:14 - 4th
    TOR 73@WSH 81
    +37.6pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2WSH
WSH

WSH

63-92

5
3
NYM

NYM

80-75

Citi Field · Queens, New York
43,412 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

WSH

league avg

NYM

NYM

.742

OPS

◀

.715

.662

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.292

5.39

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.97

4.65

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.90

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.28

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 5 · NYM 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team1234567891011R
WSH120000000025
NYM000000021003

Final play

“End of the 11th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 65-32
61%Last 30 · 303-190
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Sep 20·Final/SeriesNYM win series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into New York Mets and beat them, 5–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1D. LileWSH+42.7pp
  2. 2J. FerrerWSH−41.0pp
  3. 3P. AlonsoNYM−36.3pp

WSH · top performer

WSH
Daylen Lile

Daylen Lile

LF

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Mark Vientos

Mark Vientos

1B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/11

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodRF
.2533100021
C. AbramsSS
.2615000003
J. BellDH
.2323010002
D. LileLF
.2885123100
R. Hassell IIICF
.2315000001
D. CrewsRF
.2144110010
R. AdamsC
.1924110001
B. House3B
.2374010002
N. Nunez2B
.1854000001
- L. Garcia Jr.1B
.2550000000
- A. Chaparro1B
.1722100001
- J. YoungCF
.2340000000
- P. DeJong3B
.2390000000
Team395631312

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
C. CavalliSP
5.05001376
K. PilkingtonRP
1.00000116
C. BeeterRP
1.01000117
J. FerrerRP
2.04331443
S. LaoRP
1.0100007
P. PoulinRP
1.00000112
Team11.01133210171

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorSS
.2675010000
J. SotoLF
.2665021002
P. Alonso1B
.2723010010
B. NimmoRF
.2605100001
S. MarteRF
.2765110003
J. McNeil2B
.2512000011
F. AlvarezC
.2585020001
B. Baty3B
.2553010001
C. MullinsCF
.1834000001
- M. Vientos1B
.2371012000
- L. AcunaCF
.2381010000
- L. TorrensC
.2251010000
- J. SiriLF
.0630100000
- R. MauricioSS
.2311000000
Team4131130210

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
N. McLeanSP
5.04312692
H. BrazobanRP
1.20000115
R. LoveladyRP
1.11000216
R. HelsleyRP
1.00001218
E. DiazRP
1.0000017
T. RogersRP
1.01210015
Team11.0652312163

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • C. Cavalli
    76 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      36%·97.4 mph·19% whiff
    • KC
      34%·87.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      14%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·90.8 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Beeter
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      59%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      41%·86.7 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Pilkington
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      56%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·84.3 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      13%·83.7 mph·— whiff
  • P. Poulin
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      58%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·78.2 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Lao
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      57%·93.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      43%·87.7 mph·0% whiff

NYM

  • N. McLean
    92 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      39%·94.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      16%·79.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      15%·86.6 mph·44% whiff
    • ST
      15%·85.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      10%·91.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      4%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Helsley
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      56%·97.7 mph·75% whiff
    • SL
      44%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Lovelady
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • ST
      69%·84.1 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      25%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Brazoban
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      53%·96.2 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      40%·90.7 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      7%·86.8 mph·— whiff
  • T. Rogers
    15 pitches·7% CSW
    • SI
      60%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·74.4 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Diaz
    7 pitches·57% CSW
    • SL
      86%·89.8 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      14%·95.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

11

5

Runs

3

2

Errors

2

Current series

NYM win series 4-2

Jun 10WSHWSH4@NYMNYM5
Jun 11WSHWSH0@NYMNYM5
Jun 12WSHWSH3@NYMNYM4
Sep 19WSHWSH6@NYMNYM12
Sep 20WSHWSH5@NYMNYM3today
Sep 21WSHWSH3@NYMNYM2

Season series

NYM lead series 7-5

Apr 25NYMNYM4@WSHWSH5
Apr 26NYMNYM2@WSHWSH0
Apr 27NYMNYM7@WSHWSH8
Apr 28NYMNYM19@WSHWSH5
Jun 10WSHWSH4@NYMNYM5
Jun 11WSHWSH0@NYMNYM5
Jun 12WSHWSH3@NYMNYM4
Aug 19NYMNYM8@WSHWSH1
Aug 20NYMNYM4@WSHWSH5
Aug 21NYMNYM3@WSHWSH9
Sep 19WSHWSH6@NYMNYM12
Sep 20WSHWSH5@NYMNYM3today
Sep 21WSHWSH3@NYMNYM2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 49pp · Top 11th Inning

WSHWSH
D. Lile

D. Lile

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

C. Cavalli

C. Cavalli

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

NYMNYM
M. Vientos

M. Vientos

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

N. McLean

N. McLean

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

WSH beat NYM 5-3. Lile's play in the top 11th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (49pp).

Last play

End of the 11th inning

Win probability

NYM vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMBottom 8th Inning · 3-2
+23pp→ 33% WP

Vientos · doubled to left, Marte scored and Nimmo scored.

NYMBottom 9th Inning · 3-3
+37pp→ 75% WP

J. Soto · singled to center, Siri scored, Lindor to second.

WSHTop 11th Inning · 5-3
+49pp→ 80% WP

Lile · inside-the-park home run to center (401 feet), Chaparro scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567891011R
WSH120000000025
NYM000000021003

Period scoring

WSH won 3 · NYM won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Lile 1

2
0

Inn 2

Adams 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Vientos 2

0
1

Inn 9

Soto 1

0
0

Inn 10

2
0

Inn 11

Lile 2

WSH
NYM

Play-by-play · 679 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 11

    End of the 11th inning

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  2. B11

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  3. B11

    J. Soto struck out looking.

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

    −5pp

  4. B11

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  5. B11

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  6. B11

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  7. B11

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  8. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  9. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  10. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  11. B11

    P.J. Poulin pitches to Juan Soto

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  12. B11

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  13. B11

    Lindor lined out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

    −9pp

  14. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  15. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  16. B11

    P.J. Poulin pitches to Francisco Lindor

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  17. B11

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  18. B11

    Mullins fouled out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

    −8pp

  19. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  20. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  21. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  22. B11

    P.J. Poulin pitches to Cedric Mullins

    ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  23. B11

    Poulin relieved Lao

    ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  24. B11

    Nuñez at shortstop.

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  25. B11

    García Jr. at second base.

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  26. B11

    Bottom of the 11th inning

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  27. M11

    Middle of the 11th inning

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  28. T11

    ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  29. T11

    Crews grounded out to second.

    ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

  30. T11

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 5·NYM 3

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

5

Runs

3

6

Hits

11

2

Errors

2

9

TB

14

1

HR

0

3

BB

2

12

K

10

20

LOB

28

Player projections

NYM vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.2± 2.8low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    6.0± 4.1low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Daylen LileWSH
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Carson BengeNYM
    1.1± 1.5high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Carson BengeNYM
    2.1± 3.6high
  • Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
    2.1± 2.6high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
    1.0± 1.8high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.7± 3.4low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.6± 3.7low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.1%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    62.6%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.2%

    P(NYM win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.6%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Luisangel AcunaCHW · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278