HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 11
  • MLBTop 7
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    -7.3pppeak
  • MLBBot 6
    NYY 5@TOR 7
    +63.0pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    STL 3@MIN 1
    -39.7pplow
  • MLBMid 8
    SD 3@BAL 7
    +50.3pplow
  • MLBEnd 3
    ATL 2@NYM 6
    +57.1pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBBot 2
    SEA 5@WSH 0
    -47.1pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    TEX 1@BOS 7
    +51.9pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    LAD 2@CHW 8
    +53.3pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    PHI 0@MIL 6
    +40.0pplow
  • WNBA50.5 - 4th
    TOR 80@WSH 83
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2SEA
STL

STL

72-74

3
5
SEA

SEA

77-68

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
23,044 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

STL

league avg

SEA

SEA

.716

OPS

.715

.718

.322

OBP

◀

.319

.318

4.49

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.25

4.01

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.59

1.33

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.20

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

STL 3 · SEA 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL0201000003
SEA003200005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 65-32
61%Last 30 · 303-190
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Sep 9·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off St. Louis Cardinals, 5–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1M. LiberatoreSTL−64.5pp
  2. 2V. RoblesSEA+44.8pp
  3. 3G. KirbySEA−42.2pp

STL · top performer

STL
Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor

1B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
L. NootbaarLF
.2414010010
I. HerreraDH
.2804000000
A. Burleson1B
.2854010002
W. Contreras1B
.2564120001
N. Gorman3B
.2194111002
T. SaggeseLF
.2433111012
P. PagesC
.2254010000
V. Scott IICF
.2214000002
J. FerminLF
.3004021000
Team35393029

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
M. LiberatoreSP
4.06553165
K. LeahySP
2.02000330
J. AlcalaRP
0.2100109
N. RaquetRP
1.00001119
R. FernandezRP
0.1000008
Team8.095555131

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaLF
.2444114101
C. RaleighC
.2403000010
J. RodriguezCF
.2654000000
E. SuarezDH
.1973000012
J. Polanco1B
.2594010000
J. Naylor1B
.2714131100
M. GarverC
.2111100010
V. RoblesRF
.2744120000
J.P. CrawfordSS
.2653120011
- D. CanzoneDH
.2841000011
- L. Rivas3B
.2780000000
Team31595255

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
G. KirbySP
4.07332285
C. FergusonRP
1.0000029
E. BazardoRP
1.00000111
G. SpeierRP
1.0000008
M. BrashRP
1.01000314
A. MunozRP
1.01000119
Team9.093329146

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

  • R. Fernandez
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      71%·87.2 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      21%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·87.6 mph·— whiff

SEA

  • G. Speier
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      57%·94.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      38%·83.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      5%·94.6 mph·— whiff
  • C. Ferguson
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • SV
      50%·80.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      20%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·88.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

9

3

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 3-0

Sep 9STLSTL2@SEASEA4
Sep 10STLSTL3@SEASEA5today
Sep 11STLSTL2@SEASEA4

Season series

SEA leads series 2-0

Sep 9STLSTL2@SEASEA4
Sep 10STLSTL3@SEASEA5today
Sep 11STLSTL2@SEASEA4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 25pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

STLSTL
W. Contreras

W. Contreras

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

M. Liberatore

M. Liberatore

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 1 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

SEASEA
J. Naylor

J. Naylor

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

G. Kirby

G. Kirby

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SEA beat STL 5-3. Arozarena's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Win probability

SEA vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+14pp→ 59% WP

Gorman · doubled to left, Contreras scored.

SEABottom 3rd Inning · 2-3
+25pp→ 74% WP

Arozarena · homered to left (405 feet), Robles scored and Crawford scored.

SEABottom 4th Inning · 3-4
+14pp→ 72% WP

Naylor · homered to right center (415 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL0201000003
SEA00320000—5

Period scoring

STL won 1 · SEA won 2

0
0

Inn 1

2
0

Inn 2

Gorman 1

0
3

Inn 3

Arozarena 3

1
2

Inn 4

Ferm 1

Naylor 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

STL
SEA

Play-by-play · 552 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  2. T9

    Nootbaar grounded out to second.

    · ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  6. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Lars Nootbaar

    · ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  7. T9

    ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  8. T9

    Fermín singled to center.

    ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

    −2pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  15. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Jose Fermin

    ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  16. T9

    ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  17. T9

    Scott II struck out looking.

    ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

    +2pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  24. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Victor Scott II

    ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  25. T9

    ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  26. T9

    Pagés grounded out to first.

    ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

    +2pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    STL 3·SEA 5

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

3

Runs

5

9

Hits

9

1

Errors

0

11

TB

16

0

HR

2

2

BB

5

9

K

5

13

LOB

16

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Victor Scott IISTL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

SEA vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Bryan WooSEA
    5.8± 4.0low
  • Bryce MillerSEA
    5.8± 3.2low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.8± 2.5low

Hits

  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.3± 0.5high
  • JJ WetherholtSTL
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    2.6± 1.8high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    2.4± 1.9high
  • Lars NootbaarSTL
    2.2± 3.5low

RBIs

  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.9± 1.1high
  • Lars NootbaarSTL
    0.8± 1.0low

Earned runs

  • Bryan WooSEA
    3.1± 3.9low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Luis CastilloSEA
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.4%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    59.2%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.2%

    P(SEA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.1%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.52 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.