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Live · 6
  • MLBBot 1
    ARI 0@SEA 0
    +5.4ppmedium
  • MLBMid 1
    PHI 0@LAD 0
    -6.0ppmedium
  • MLBBot 1
    NYY 0@ATH 2
    +42.8ppmedium
  • MLBBot 4
    SF 0@COL 4
    +58.9pplow
  • NBA9:52 - 4th
    SA 88@OKC 82
    -51.8pppeak
  • WNBA1:24 - 4th
    IND 80@POR 100
    +38.1pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CLE
SEA

SEA

72-63

4
5
CLE

CLE

67-66

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
32,012 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

SEA 4 · CLE 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA4000000004
CLE0000011125

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 69-48
62%Last 30 · 332-207
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 29·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians held off Seattle Mariners, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Jorge Polanco

Jorge Polanco

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Kyle Manzardo

Kyle Manzardo

1B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA72-63
4
5
CLE67-66
SEA72-63·CLE67-66
SEA

SEA

72-63

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
2-33120000
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-11100030
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-44111001
SPRINT28.688
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-44011001
SPRINT25.818
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-44010001
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
2-44122100
SPRINT25.310
M. GarverM. Garver★C
2-44020000
SPRINT24.53
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
1-33010011
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-44000002
Team10-31314104146
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. KirbyG. Kirby★SP
7.0622062
M. BrashM. BrashRP
1.0111220
A. MunozA. MunozRP
0.1221000
Team8.1954282
CLE

CLE

67-66

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
1-44011000
SPRINT26.530
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
0-44000002
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-33110010
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
2-33121111
SPRINT25.411
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
0-44000002
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
0-00000000
C. KayfusC. Kayfus★LF
0-44000003
N. JonesN. Jones★RF
2-44221100
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
2-44121000
SPRINT27.354
A. MartinezA. MartinezLF
1-33011000
Team9-3333595228
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. AllenL. Allen★RP
6.0644351
J. JunisJ. JunisRP
2.0100110
T. HerrinT. HerrinRP
1.0300000
Team9.01044461

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • G. Kirby
    98 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      35%·86.6 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      30%·95.6 mph·15% whiff
    • KC
      18%·84.0 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      12%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Brash
    24 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      58%·84.9 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      21%·89.2 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      13%·94.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      8%·94.6 mph·— whiff
  • A. Munoz
    13 pitches·8% CSW
    • SL
      54%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      31%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·90.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      8%·98.1 mph·0% whiff

CLE

  • L. Allen
    100 pitches·28% CSW
    • ST
      30%·79.6 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      29%·92.1 mph·15% whiff
    • CH
      16%·83.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      16%·89.6 mph·11% whiff
    • FC
      9%·87.9 mph·67% whiff
  • J. Junis
    25 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      40%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      28%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      16%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      16%·89.2 mph·67% whiff
  • T. Herrin
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • CU
      43%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·86.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      14%·93.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

9

4

Runs

5

2

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 2-1

Aug 29SEASEA4@CLECLE5today
Aug 30SEASEA3@CLECLE4
Aug 31SEASEA4@CLECLE2

Season series

SEA leads series 3-1

Jun 14CLECLE2@SEASEA7
Jun 15CLECLE3@SEASEA4
Jun 15CLECLE0@SEASEA6
Aug 29SEASEA4@CLECLE5today
Aug 30SEASEA3@CLECLE4
Aug 31SEASEA4@CLECLE2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 52pp · Bottom 9th Inning

SEASEA
J. Polanco

J. Polanco

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

G. Kirby

G. Kirby

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 6 H

CLECLE
K. Manzardo

K. Manzardo

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

L. Allen

L. Allen

RP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

How it ended

CLE beat SEA 5-4. Rocchio's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (52pp).

Win probability

CLE vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEATop 1st Inning · 4-0
+11pp→ 86% WP

Polanco · homered to left (348 feet), Rodríguez scored.

SEABottom 8th Inning · 4-3
+12pp→ 87% WP

Kayfus · struck out swinging.

CLEBottom 9th Inning · 4-4
+52pp→ 92% WP

Rocchio · singled to left, Jones scored on error, Rocchio to second, Rocchio safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Arozarena.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA4000000004
CLE0000011125

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · CLE won 4

4
0

Inn 1

Polanco 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Manzardo 1

0
1

Inn 7

Jones 1

0
1

Inn 8

Mart 1

0
2

Inn 9

Rocchio 1

SEA
CLE

Play-by-play · 544 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 5

  2. B9

    Kwan hit sacrifice fly to center, Rocchio scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SEA 4·CLE 5

    +8pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 4·CLE 5

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 4·CLE 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 4·CLE 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 4·CLE 4

  7. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Steven Kwan

    · ·

    SEA 4·CLE 5

  8. B9

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 4

  9. B9

    Rocchio singled to left, Jones scored on error, Rocchio to second, Rocchio safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Arozarena.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SEA 4·CLE 4

    +52pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 4·CLE 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul

    · ·

    SEA 4·CLE 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SEA 4·CLE 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 4·CLE 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul

    · ·

    SEA 4·CLE 3

  15. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Brayan Rocchio

    · ·

    SEA 4·CLE 4

  16. B9

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 3

  17. B9

    Jones doubled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 3

    +25pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 3

  22. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Nolan Jones

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 3

  23. B9

    Muñoz relieved Brash

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 3

  24. B9

    Raley as designated hitter.

    SEA 4·CLE 3

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SEA 4·CLE 3

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    SEA 4·CLE 3

  27. T9

    · ·

    SEA 4·CLE 3

  28. T9

    Crawford fouled out to third.

    · ·

    SEA 4·CLE 3

    +2pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 4·CLE 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 4·CLE 3

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

4

Runs

5

10

Hits

9

2

Errors

0

15

TB

17

1

HR

2

4

BB

2

6

K

8

11

LOB

17

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

CLE vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Colt EmersonSEA
    0.6± 1.4low

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.3%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    47.2%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.1%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.1%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 20, 25sim 98
    106
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 96
    166
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 96
    176
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 96
    123
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 14, 25sim 95
    195
    3(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 95
    64
    28(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs