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FINAL+5CHC
CHC

CHC

82-63

6
1
ATL

ATL

65-80

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
32,721 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 6 · ATL 1 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC1010000406
ATL0010000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

57%Last 7 · 69-51
61%Last 30 · 332-210
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Sep 9·Final/SeriesCHC win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs went into Atlanta Braves and beat them, 6–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Ronald Acuna Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr.

RF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC82-63
6
1
ATL65-80
CHC82-63·ATL65-80
CHC

CHC

82-63

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-44100013
I. HappI. Happ★LF
2-55120000
SPRINT27.662
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-44010012
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-22112010
SPRINT29.294
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-33110011
SPRINT28.278
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
0-44000002
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
1-33110011
SPRINT27.969
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-33101013
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
1-44012000
SPRINT28.992
Team7-32326750612
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. HortonC. Horton★SP
6.1411020
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
0.2000010
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
1.0000010
B. BrownB. BrownRP
1.0000020
Team9.0411060
ATL

ATL

65-80

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
1-44011000
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
0-44000002
SPRINT25.513
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-44000001
SPRINT27.354
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
0-44000001
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-44000001
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
0-33000000
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
2-33120000
SPRINT26.838
J. FraleyJ. Fraley★RF
1-33010001
SPRINT28.278
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
0-33000000
Team4-3232141006
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. StriderS. Strider★SP
6.0622380
D. LeeD. LeeRP
1.0000010
A. DiazA. DiazRP
0.2043310
C. SeaboldC. SeaboldRP
1.1100020
Team9.07656120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • C. Horton
    87 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      60%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·88.2 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      10%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·83.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      3%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Brown
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      71%·95.5 mph·75% whiff
    • KC
      29%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      38%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      31%·77.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·82.8 mph·— whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • SL
      50%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      30%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·95.6 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • S. Strider
    97 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      41%·95.6 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      37%·83.9 mph·64% whiff
    • CU
      15%·78.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Diaz
    28 pitches·21% CSW
    • SL
      57%·86.7 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      43%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Seabold
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • CH
      37%·83.2 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      37%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      16%·87.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      11%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lee
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • FF
      45%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      27%·86.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      27%·86.0 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

4

6

Runs

1

1

Errors

1

Current series

CHC win series 2-1

Sep 8CHCCHC1@ATLATL4
Sep 9CHCCHC6@ATLATL1today
Sep 10CHCCHC3@ATLATL2

Season series

CHC lead series 3-2

Sep 1ATLATL6@CHCCHC7
Sep 2ATLATL3@CHCCHC4
Sep 3ATLATL5@CHCCHC1
Sep 8CHCCHC1@ATLATL4
Sep 9CHCCHC6@ATLATL1today
Sep 10CHCCHC3@ATLATL2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 8th Inning

CHCCHC
P. Crow-Armstrong

P. Crow-Armstrong

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.167 OPS

C. Horton

C. Horton

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 4 H

ATLATL
R. Acuna Jr.

R. Acuna Jr.

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

S. Strider

S. Strider

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

How it ended

CHC beat ATL 6-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATL vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLBottom 3rd Inning · 2-1
+9pp→ 38% WP

Profar · singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.

ATLBottom 5th Inning · 2-1
+9pp→ 49% WP

Fraley · singled to right, Acuña Jr. to third.

CHCTop 8th Inning · 3-1
+12pp→ 87% WP

Swanson · walked, Crow-Armstrong scored, Castro to second, Hoerner to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC1010000406
ATL0010000001

Period scoring

CHC won 2 · ATL won 0

1
0

Inn 1

Crow-Armstrong 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
1

Inn 3

Crow-Armstrong 1

Profar 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

4
0

Inn 8

Shaw 3

0
0

Inn 9

CHC
ATL

Play-by-play · 542 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  2. B9

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  3. B9

    Kim struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  10. B9

    Ben Brown pitches to Ha-Seong Kim

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  11. B9

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  12. B9

    Baldwin flied out to left.

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  15. B9

    Ben Brown pitches to Drake Baldwin

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  16. B9

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  17. B9

    Albies struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  24. B9

    Ben Brown pitches to Ozzie Albies

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  25. B9

    Brown relieved Thielbar

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  28. T9

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  29. T9

    Crow-Armstrong flied out to left.

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 6·ATL 1

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

6

Runs

1

7

Hits

4

1

Errors

1

8

TB

5

0

HR

0

6

BB

0

12

K

6

14

LOB

9

Player projections

ATL vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    47.4%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.3%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.4%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jake FraleyTB · RF
    SPRINT28.278

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 30, 25sim 97
    123
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 29, 25sim 96
    124
    5(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 95
    163
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 8, 25sim 95
    161
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 95
    106
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 18, 25sim 95
    251
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs