Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SA at OKC?

The model favors OKC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8SA

62-20

111103

OKC

64-18

NBASat, May 30FinalSeriesSA wins series 4-1VegasOKC -3.5

SA · top performer

Julian Champagnie

F · #30

16.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

OKC · top performer

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G · #2

32.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ OKC

Biggest swing: 17pp · 3rd Quarter · 3:15

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	38	20	6-11	6-10	2-3	+16	6	1
V. WembanyamaF · #1	42	22	7-15	3-5	5-7	+7	7	2
D. FoxG · #4	36	15	6-12	3-7	—	+3	0	5
D. VassellG · #24	33	11	4-14	1-6	2-2	0	6	3
S. CastleG · #5	36	16	7-15	0-3	2-3	+1	6	6
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	-5	0	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	16	11	4-8	2-5	1-2	+6	3	1
C. BryantF · #11	3	2	1-1	—	—	+2	1	0
L. KornetC · #7	6	2	0-3	—	2-2	+1	4	0
D. HarperG · #2	27	12	5-8	2-3	—	+9	7	3
Team		111	40-88	17-40	14-19		40	21
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee, J. McLaughlin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HartensteinC · #55	21	7	3-7	—	1-1	-14	5	0
C. HolmgrenC · #7	33	4	1-2	—	2-4	-3	4	0
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	43	35	12-21	2-5	9-11	-7	4	9
L. DortG · #5	16	3	1-4	1-3	—	-9	1	2
C. WallaceG · #22	36	17	6-10	5-9	—	-3	7	4
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	26	11	5-9	1-3	—	+10	10	4
A. CarusoG · #9	39	12	3-14	1-6	5-6	-5	5	4
K. WilliamsG · #34	4	2	1-4	0-2	—	-1	1	0
J. McCainG · #3	23	12	5-12	2-7	—	-8	1	0
Team		103	37-83	12-35	17-22		38	23
DNP: I. Joe, A. Wiggins, N. Topic

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

OKC

Home

40-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-83

FG %

17-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-35

14-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-22

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

SA wins series 4-3

May 19

SA122@

OKC115

May 21

SA113@

OKC122

May 23

OKC123@

SA108

May 25

OKC82@

SA103

May 27

SA114@

OKC127

May 29

OKC91@

SA118

May 31

SA111@

OKC103today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

211.5

Defensive · -14.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA+12045%

OKC-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -3.5↗SpreadBet OKC -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

211.5

+2.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat OKC 111-103. J. Champagnie led with 20 PTS, 6 REB, 1 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

OKC vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 25 REB · 17 AST

GS 63

Bench(5)

27 PTS · 15 REB · 4 AST

GS 25

OKCstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 21 REB · 15 AST

GS 60

Bench(4)

37 PTS · 17 REB · 8 AST

GS 22

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

OKC3rd Quarter · 3:15 · 77-71

+17pp→ 35% WP

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · makes free throw 2 of 3

SA4th Quarter · 11:41 · 80-77

+11pp→ 72% WP

Chet Holmgren · shooting foul

SA4th Quarter · 18.2 · 109-103

+10pp→ 98% WP

Alex Caruso · misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	32	24	24	31	111
OKC	25	28	24	26	103

Period scoring

SA won 2 · OKC won 1

Castle 9

McCain 8

Fox 7

Gilgeous-Alexander 13

Champagnie 11

Gilgeous-Alexander 15

Johnson 8

Wallace 14

OKC

Shooting comparison

OKC

45%

40-88

45%

37-83

43%

17-40

3PT

34%

12-35

74%

14-19

77%

17-22

Play-by-play · 486 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 111·OKC 103
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 111·OKC 103
Q4·4.1
Devin Vassell makes running dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)
·
SA 111·OKC 103
Q4·8.4
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
SA 109·OKC 103
−0.7pp
Q4·12.5
Cason Wallace misses 29-foot three point jumper
SA 109·OKC 103
−2pp
Q4·17.1
Thunder offensive team rebound
SA 109·OKC 103
+1pp
Q4·18.2
Alex Caruso misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SA 109·OKC 103
−10pp
Q4·22.3
Julian Champagnie enters the game for Dylan Harper
·
SA 109·OKC 103
Q4·22.3
Jared McCain enters the game for Kenrich Williams
· ·
SA 109·OKC 103
Q4·22.3
Jaylin Williams enters the game for Luguentz Dort
· ·
SA 109·OKC 103
Q4·22.3
De'Aaron Fox personal foulBIG MOMENT
SA 109·OKC 103
+9pp
Q4·22.3
Stephon Castle lost ball turnover (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander steals)
·
SA 109·OKC 103
+2pp
Q4·22.3
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
SA 109·OKC 103
−0.9pp
Q4·28.4
Kenrich Williams misses 22-foot three point jumper
·
SA 109·OKC 103
−2pp
Q4·40.1
Stephon Castle bad pass turnover (Cason Wallace steals)
·
SA 109·OKC 103
+2pp
Q4·42.9
Dylan Harper enters the game for Julian Champagnie
·
SA 109·OKC 103
Q4·42.9
Kenrich Williams enters the game for Jared McCain
· ·
SA 109·OKC 103
Q4·42.9
Luguentz Dort enters the game for Jaylin Williams
· ·
SA 109·OKC 103
Q4·42.9
Spurs Full timeout
SA 109·OKC 103
−0.5pp
Q4·52.9
Cason Wallace makes driving layup
SA 109·OKC 103
+2pp
Q4·59.1
Stephon Castle makes two point shot
SA 109·OKC 101
−2pp
Q4·59.1
Stephon Castle offensive rebound
SA 107·OKC 101
−2pp
Q4·1:01
Julian Champagnie misses 19-foot pullup jump shot
SA 107·OKC 101
+2pp
Q4·1:23
Jared McCain enters the game for Chet Holmgren
·
SA 107·OKC 101
Q4·1:23
Devin Vassell enters the game for Dylan Harper
·
SA 107·OKC 101
Q4·1:23
Spurs defensive team rebound
SA 107·OKC 101
−0.9pp
Q4·1:25
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
SA 107·OKC 101
−3pp
Q4·1:36
Stephon Castle lost ball turnover (Chet Holmgren steals)
·
SA 107·OKC 101
+2pp
Q4·2:02
Cason Wallace makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
·
SA 107·OKC 101
+3pp
Q4·2:13
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
·
SA 107·OKC 98

Betting line

OKC -3.5·O/U 211.5·SA +120/OKC -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs went into Oklahoma City Thunder and beat them, 111–103.

SA +3.5 cashed (OKC lost outright). Total cleared the 211.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Cason WallaceOKC · G
DEFL599+
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

77.5%

ensemble · OKC favored

Elo Static
75.1%
P(OKC win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
79.6%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
77.8%
P(OKC win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

1.87 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-155

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SA at OKC?: The model favors OKC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+18.8pp

best edge · OKC · DraftKings

no live price

OKC

★ best

-142DraftKings

edge +18.8pp · implied 56.3%

Book	SA	OKC	Best edge
DraftKings	+120	-142★	+18.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

OKC vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 115 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Tobias HarrisSA
16.3± 7.8high
Stephon CastleSA
16.2± 5.2high

Rebounds

Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
6.4± 1.8high

Assists

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
0.8± 0.8high
Isaiah HartensteinOKC
0.6± 0.8high

Steals

Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Alex CarusoOKC
1.5± 1.1high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
1.5± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

OKC

55.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

48.2%

118.2

PPG

114.9

118.5

27.3

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.8

12.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.9

Data via ESPN · hoopR