May 26, 26sim 100
24114
25(H)127
EloWin probTime of year
SA
56LiveHalftime
OKC
53Updated 9:24 PM ET
HALFTIME+3SA
SA
62-20
5653
OKC
64-18
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 49 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 16 players in cohort
De'Aaron FoxSA · GDRIVES14.885
Stephon CastleSA · GTOUCHES71.573
Updated 0s ago
SA · top performer
De'Aaron Fox
G · #4
10.1Game score
10
Pts
0
Reb
3
Ast
OKC · top performer
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
G · #2
17.1Game score
19
Pts
4
Reb
5
Ast
NBA · San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder · live
NBA · Box score
Halftime
SA62-20
5653
OKC64-18
SA62-20OKC64-18
SA
62-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 17 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 20 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| 17 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +10 | |
DRIVES14.885 DEFL379 TOUCHES65.164 | ||||||||
| 19 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
DEFL2.552 CONT4.130 DRIVES3.818 | ||||||||
| 19 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
TOUCHES71.573 DRIVES12.371 CONT4.848 | ||||||||
| 12 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 56 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 4 | ||
| DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee, J. McLaughlin | ||||||||
OKC
64-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 12 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | |
| 20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -7 | |
| 21 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | |
| 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 11 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| 18 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | |
| 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| Team | 53 | 26 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 8 | ||
| DNP: I. Joe, A. Wiggins, N. Topic | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
48
10
Ast
13
Playoff series
Series tied 3-3
May 19SA122@OKC115
SA122@OKC115May 21SA113@OKC122
SA113@OKC122May 23OKC123@SA108
OKC123@SA108May 25OKC82@SA103
OKC82@SA103May 27SA114@OKC127
SA114@OKC127May 29OKC91@SA118
OKC91@SA118May 31SA@OKCtoday
SA@OKCtodayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OKC -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
211.5
Defensive · -14.5 vs avg
Moneyline
SA+12045%OKC-14259%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
0.0 since open
Total
211.5
+2.0 since open
Live · top performers so far
HalftimeGame flowSA ↔ OKC
Recent swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 2:17
Just happened
End of the 2nd Quarter
SAD. Fox
GLeading · Halftime · 17 min
10 PTS · 0 REB · 3 AST
On pace: 28 PTS · 0 REB · 8 AST
OKCS. Gilgeous-Alexander
GLeading · Halftime · 21 min
19 PTS · 4 REB · 5 AST
On pace: 43 PTS · 9 REB · 11 AST
How it's going
SA lead OKC 56-53 (Halftime). D. Fox led with 10 PTS, 0 REB, 3 AST.
Win probability
OKC vs SA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSAstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
45 PTS · 9 REB · 8 AST
GS 36
Bench(5)
11 PTS · 5 REB · 2 AST
GS 11
OKCstarters 62% of ptsStarters(5)
33 PTS · 13 REB · 11 AST
GS 29
Bench(4)
20 PTS · 13 REB · 2 AST
GS 12
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSA2nd Quarter · 3:09 · 47-44
+8pp→ 58% WP
Stephon Castle · makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC2nd Quarter · 2:17 · 49-49
+7pp→ 55% WP
Luguentz Dort · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
SA2nd Quarter · 54.3 · 52-53
+6pp→ 39% WP
De'Aaron Fox · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| SA | 32 | 24 | 56 |
| OKC | 25 | 28 | 53 |
Period scoring
SA won 1 · OKC won 1
32
25
Q1
Castle 9
McCain 8
24
28
Q2
Fox 7
Gilgeous-Alexander 13
SA
OKC
Shooting comparison
SA
OKC
49%
21-43
FG
48%
22-46
41%
7-17
3PT
28%
5-18
88%
7-8
FT
50%
4-8
Play-by-play · 230 plays
period
event
player
- Q2·0.0
End of the 2nd Quarter
SA 56·OKC 53
−2pp
- Q2·0.2
Thunder offensive team rebound
SA 56·OKC 53
+3pp
- Q2·0.2
Alex Caruso misses 26-foot three point jumper
SA 56·OKC 53
−3pp
- Q2·4.9
Victor Wembanyama makes 13-foot two point shot (Devin Vassell assists)
·
SA 56·OKC 53
−4pp
- Q2·26.7
Devin Vassell defensive rebound
SA 54·OKC 53
−0.9pp
- Q2·28.6
Alex Caruso misses 8-foot two point shot
SA 54·OKC 53
−3pp
- Q2·35.2
Keldon Johnson makes 2-foot tip in dunk
SA 54·OKC 53
−3pp
- Q2·35.2
Keldon Johnson offensive rebound
SA 52·OKC 53
−3pp
- Q2·35.2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander blocks Stephon Castle 's 2-foot running layup
·
SA 52·OKC 53
+3pp
- Q2·39.5
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander bad pass turnover (Devin Vassell steals)
·
SA 52·OKC 53
−4pp
- Q2·54.3
De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SA 52·OKC 53
−6pp
- Q2·1:17
Chet Holmgren makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 49·OKC 53
−3pp
- Q2·1:17
Chet Holmgren makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 49·OKC 52
+0.7pp
- Q2·1:17
Keldon Johnson personal foulBIG MOMENT
SA 49·OKC 51
+5pp
- Q2·1:17
De'Aaron Fox lost ball turnover (Chet Holmgren steals)
·
SA 49·OKC 51
+3pp
- Q2·1:33
Jaylin Williams makes 14-foot jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
· ·
SA 49·OKC 51
+3pp
- Q2·1:53
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
SA 49·OKC 49
+0.9pp
- Q2·1:55
Keldon Johnson misses 23-foot three point jumper
SA 49·OKC 49
+3pp
- Q2·2:17
Luguentz Dort makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SA 49·OKC 49
+7pp
- Q2·2:20
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander offensive rebound
SA 49·OKC 46
+3pp
- Q2·2:22
Luguentz Dort misses 12-foot jumper
SA 49·OKC 46
−3pp
- Q2·2:36
De'Aaron Fox makes 13-foot turnaround jump shot
SA 49·OKC 46
−4pp
- Q2·2:52
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 16-foot jumper
SA 47·OKC 46
+4pp
- Q2·3:07
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
·
SA 47·OKC 44
- Q2·3:09
Stephon Castle misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
SA 47·OKC 44
+6pp
- Q2·3:09
Keldon Johnson enters the game for Julian Champagnie
·
SA 47·OKC 44
- Q2·3:09
Stephon Castle makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
SA 47·OKC 44
−8pp
- Q2·3:09
De'Aaron Fox enters the game for Dylan Harper
·
SA 46·OKC 44
- Q2·3:09
(03:09) [Spurs] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)BIG MOMENT
SA 46·OKC 44
+7pp
- Q2·3:09
Alex Caruso shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SA 46·OKC 44
−5pp
Team stats
SA
Away
Stat
OKC
Home
21-43
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
22-46
49
FG %
48
7-17
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
5-18
7-8
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
4-8
10
Assists
13
4
Turnovers
8
Betting line
OKC -3.5·O/U 211.5·SA +120/OKC -142
Live · model leanHalftimePolls every 30s
58.5%
OKC wins · current
Pre-game: 77.5% OKC
SA 56 · 53 OKC
SA +3
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q2away leadsOKC leads
Key moments · live
newest firstEnsemble breakdown
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
78.5%
ensemble · OKC favored
Elo Static
77.5%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
77.4%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
80.5%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
1.44 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
90% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Live model · pick
Receipts
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-155
Close price
-155
Open no-vig
58.3%
Close no-vig
58.3%
Line barely moved
Line shop
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+21.2pp
best edge · OKC · DraftKings
SA
no live price
OKC
★ best-142DraftKings
edge +21.2pp · implied 56.3%
| Book | SA | OKC | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +120 | -142★ | +21.2 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player props
Player projections
OKC vs SA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC26.6± 6.4high
- Victor WembanyamaSA25.1± 10.8high
- Stephon CastleSA18.4± 6.1high
Rebounds
- Victor WembanyamaSA11.1± 6.8high
- Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.8± 3.7high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC8.5± 2.9high
Assists
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC7.4± 3.2high
- Stephon CastleSA7.4± 2.5high
- De'Aaron FoxSA5.8± 2.1high
Blocks
- Victor WembanyamaSA3.0± 1.3high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC1.4± 1.0high
- Luke KornetSA1.0± 1.3high
Steals
- Cason WallaceOKC2.1± 1.0high
- Alex CarusoOKC1.5± 1.1high
- Ajay MitchellOKC1.4± 1.7high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands