HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
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THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1CLE
SEA

SEA

72-64

3
4
CLE

CLE

68-66

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
33,203 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

SEA

league avg

CLE

CLE

.713

OPS

◀

.717

.689

.316

OBP

.319

.317

4.26

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.01

3.69

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.75

1.20

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.26

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

SEA 3 · CLE 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0000001203
CLE000102104

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Aug 30·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians held off Seattle Mariners, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1J. RamirezCLE+34.4pp
  2. 2G. WilliamsCLE+27.2pp
  3. 3J. NaylorSEA−21.0pp

SEA · top performer

SEA
Julio Rodriguez

Julio Rodriguez

CF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Kyle Manzardo

Kyle Manzardo

1B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaLF
.2424120000
C. RaleighC
.2414000003
J. RodriguezCF
.2644122100
J. Naylor1B
.2574000001
E. SuarezDH
.1844000003
J. Polanco1B
.2554111101
L. RaleyRF
.2084000003
J.P. CrawfordSS
.2582000010
C. Young2B
.2262000011
Team323532212

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
L. GilbertSP
6.03332693
C. FergusonRP
1.02111125
G. SpeierRP
1.00000115
Team8.054438133

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanCF
.2714011000
D. SchneemannCF
.2194000002
J. Ramirez3B
.2853210010
K. Manzardo1B
.2354112102
B. NaylorC
.1764011002
D. FryRF
.1583000001
C. KayfusLF
.1831000010
N. JonesRF
.2203110001
B. RocchioSS
.2332000010
- A. MartinezLF
.2261000000
Team29454138

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
G. WilliamsSP
7.04111895
H. GaddisRP
0.21221114
C. SmithRP
1.10000316
Team9.0533212125

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • L. Gilbert
    93 pitches·31% CSW
    • SL
      44%·87.1 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.9 mph·29% whiff
    • FS
      20%·81.5 mph·30% whiff
    • CU
      2%·80.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Ferguson
    25 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      40%·93.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      36%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      20%·80.8 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      4%·88.5 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Speier
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      40%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·83.8 mph·100% whiff

CLE

  • G. Williams
    95 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      53%·95.5 mph·32% whiff
    • CU
      29%·81.4 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      9%·84.3 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      7%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      1%·89.5 mph·— whiff
  • C. Smith
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      75%·97.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      25%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Gaddis
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      43%·85.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      7%·74.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

5

3

Runs

4

1

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 2-1

Aug 29SEASEA4@CLECLE5
Aug 30SEASEA3@CLECLE4today
Aug 31SEASEA4@CLECLE2

Season series

SEA leads series 3-2

Jun 14CLECLE2@SEASEA7
Jun 15CLECLE3@SEASEA4
Jun 15CLECLE0@SEASEA6
Aug 29SEASEA4@CLECLE5
Aug 30SEASEA3@CLECLE4today
Aug 31SEASEA4@CLECLE2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 6th Inning

SEASEA
J. Rodriguez

J. Rodriguez

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

L. Gilbert

L. Gilbert

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

CLECLE
K. Manzardo

K. Manzardo

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

G. Williams

G. Williams

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CLE beat SEA 4-3.

Win probability

CLE vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLEBottom 4th Inning · 0-1
+14pp→ 68% WP

Naylor · singled to center, Ramírez scored.

CLEBottom 6th Inning · 0-3
+17pp→ 91% WP

Manzardo · homered to right (356 feet), Ramírez scored.

SEATop 8th Inning · 3-4
+9pp→ 14% WP

Rodr · íguez homered to left (407 feet), Arozarena scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0000001203
CLE00010210—4

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · CLE won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Naylor 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Manzardo 2

1
1

Inn 7

Polanco 1

Kwan 1

2
0

Inn 8

Rodr 2

0

Inn 9

SEA
CLE

Play-by-play · 502 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  2. T9

    Raley struck out swinging.

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

    +2pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  8. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Luke Raley

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  9. T9

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  10. T9

    Polanco struck out looking.

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

    +5pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  17. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Jorge Polanco

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  18. T9

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  19. T9

    Suárez struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

    +7pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  23. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Eugenio Suarez

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  26. B8

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  27. B8

    Naylor grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  28. B8

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  29. B8

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    SEA 3·CLE 4

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

3

Runs

4

5

Hits

5

1

Errors

0

12

TB

8

2

HR

1

2

BB

3

12

K

8

8

LOB

7

Player projections

CLE vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.0± 3.5low
  • Bryce MillerSEA
    6.0± 3.0low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    5.8± 2.3low

Hits

  • Cole YoungSEA
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Jhonny PeredaSEA
    1.1± 0.7medium
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Colt EmersonSEA
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Dominic CanzoneSEA
    2.0± 2.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Colt EmersonSEA
    0.7± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    0.6± 1.3high
  • Mitch GarverSEA
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Bryan WooSEA
    3.1± 3.9low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    2.8± 2.5low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.2%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    48.4%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.9%

    P(CLE win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.4%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.63 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.